Transcript Diapositiva 1

“Advances in Economic Dynamics”
Cambio Estrutural e Desenvolvimento no
América Latina
Dr. James Martín Cypher
Profesor-Investigador (Economía)
Doctorado en Estudios del Desarrollo
Universidad Autónoma de Zacatecas (México)
[Professor Emeritus, California State University]
Um trabalho apresentado no Seminário Internacional
ADVANCES IN ECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND
DEVELOPMENT
UNIVERSIDAD FEDERAL DO PARANÁ
[ECONOMIA]
Outubro 13-15
2010
ADVANCES IN ECONOMIC DYNMACS
• “The principal characteristic of structuralism is that it
takes as its object of investigation a ‘system’, that is, the
reciprocal relations among parts of a whole, rather than
the study of the different parts in isolation. In a more
specific sense this concept is used by those theories that
hold that there are a set of social and economic
structures that are unobservable but which generate
observable social and economic phenomena.”
•
(Palma 1989: 316)
ADVANCES IN ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
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Los elementos estructurales son
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1. la
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estructura productiva en términos del poder
economico/politico y en términos de las capacidades
(K, K/L, tecnología, I/Y, etc.)
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Ej. Poder difusivo (modelo Marshalliano)
Poder concentrado (oligopolía/monopolio)
Estructura atrasada/moderna
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2. distribución
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Ej. Junker/yeoman
latifundista/minifudista
de la tierra
Concentrated Economic and Political Power: Mexico’s Conglomerates
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The Mexican stock market facilitated the trading of shares of 170 large companies—with the 10 largest nonfinancial, family controlled companies accounting for 61 percent of the entire stock market capitalization (World
Bank 2003, 1). These companies, and the next ten largest companies in Mexico, are all 100 percent family
controlled (Guerrero, López-Calva & Walton 2006, 9).
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In the 10 largest companies, the top 3 shareholders owned a total of 64 percent of the capital of these companies
(World Bank 2003, 1-2). The World Bank added the following summary: “In many firms, one class of shares gives
full voting rights to the family controllers, while others have limited or no voting rights. Financial and industrial
groups have been key in Mexican economic development.”
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Business groups are characterized by vertical, horizontal, or conglomerate integration. Holding companies make
most key decisions, including financing, dividend policy, fixed assets, and hiring of top managers” (World Bank
2003, 2). Known as the national power groups or simply “los grupos”. This term would encompass more than the
top 20 firms—perhaps as many as 30 or more, each of which would, in turn, own and/or control numerous other
major firms. A “typical” grupo thus might own or control as many as 10 or 15 relatively large firms.
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Measured by sales, 8 of the top 20 private sector firms were Mexican grupos in 2008, the remainder being
transnational firms, and Mexican-owned non-conglomerate firms such as CEMEX.
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“large firms” in Mexico—some 3,051 firms—constitute only 0.3 percent of all companies but they own 74 percent
of all business assets, pay 69 percent of all salaries and wages, employ 52.3 percent of the (formal) workforce and
produce 74 percent of all value added (Maria y Campos, et. al., 2009, 88-89). Four hundred and three of these
large firms account for 75 percent of all of Mexico’s exports (González G. 2009, 24).
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Mexico’s top 400 firms, with sales income equivalent to 41 percent of the annual Gross Domestic Product, pay on
average only a 1.7 percent tax “burden” on their income according to a study conducted by an agency of the
Mexican treasury (Posada y Zuñiga 2009, 32). Meanwhile common citizens pay a 16 percent value added tax on
all consumer purchases, excluding food and medicine.
Concentrated economic power has since the mid-1970s increasingly been transferred into the arena of public
policy primarily through the agency of the large, and well-organized peak business associations (Ross Schneider
2002).
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Advances em la dinámica económica
• Que más es la estructura?
• 3. Composición del Estado
• Ej. Estado colonial/poscolonial
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Estado Instrumentalista/Captada
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Estado Desarrollista
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Estado Intermedio
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Estado Depredadoro
Advances in economic dynamics and development
• Hay más en la estructura?
• 4. Historia, formación y ideología de las
capas altas
• Ej. Instrumental o Ceremonial
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Instinct of Workmanship vs.
Predatory Animus (Veblen)
Power
•
↓
cohesive ability to:
Developmental State Formation =
+
Purpose
+ Capacity
↓
↓
mobilize a
competence ↔embeddedness
development vision
↓
↓
• direct & prioritize a
development project
•demand performance
compliance (autonomy)
↓
civil service
industry-state boards
SLI &/or ELI • merit-based
↓
(policy)
• rule-based
production/knowledge
base
• maintain an alliance
with business elite
• inter-agency
↓
coherence
technical,
managerial, labor
• directing and prioritizing a development project = coherence
• to demand and achieve performance compliance = discipline capability
Seminario internacional: advances in economic dynamics
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• Grandes Cambios Estructurales - I
1. Decolonialización/Hegemonización Britianica
2. Hegemonización de los EE. UU.
3. Gran Depressión/ISI
4. Golpe del Estado/Crises de Deuda Ext.
5. Hegemonización Neoliberal/ renovación de
los sectores rentistas (bancos/bolsas/bienes
raices, intereses mercantiles etc.)
Seminario internacional: avances en dinámicas y desarrollo
• Grandes Cambios Estructurales – II
• 6. Programas de Ajuste Estructural/CW
• 7. Programas de Ajuste Institucional
PAEs de la segunda etapa: medianos
de los 90s
Modelo de Crecimiento liderado por las
exportaciones, basada en ventajas
comparativas estaticas y exportaciones notradicionales (soya, flores, frutas, legumbres con
alta elasticidad de demanda del ingreso [brocoli,
etc.])
Mexico: GDP and exports, 1950-2007
Log scales. Export do not include oil; 1980 prices. For the convenience of the graph, before
transforming the data into log the original data were first made into a 3-year moving
average and then into index-numbers with 1981 as a base (equal to 20.09; the natural
logarithm of this number is 3).
Source:ECLAC’s Statistical Database
Regional averages: export and GDP growth, 1980-2006
EA*= NICs-1 and NIC-2 (excluding China); LA* = Latin America (excluding Brazil, Mexico
and Venezuela); dLA = interactive dummy for Latin American countries; mena= North
Africa and the Middle East; oecd = average of high-income OECD countries; SA*= South
Asia (excluding India); SSA*=Sub Arian Africa (excluding South Africa). Br = Brazil; Mx =
Mexico; and ZA = South Africa.
Source: Gabriel Palma: Constructed by the author using data from WDI (2007)
Export and GDP growth for developing regions, 1980-2006
Seminario internacional: avances en dinámicas
económicas y desarrollo
• Cambio Estructural: Según CEPAL
1. Hay que aumentar el C&T/PIB
2. CyTI como nuevo paradigma (C. Perez)
3. Nueva Heterogeneidad Industrial:
Productividad  Empleo ↓, Desplazamiento de
los MyPes
4. Economía Informal ↑
5. Política Industrial (ligero) [fallas del mercado]
Seminario internacional: avances en dinámicas económicas y desarrollo
Cambios Estructurales Desarrollista
(visión critica)
• Política Industrial (Profunda)
[Sectores Priorizadas con Reciprocidad]
• Vinculación del SNI con redistribución
[∆ oferta + demanda agregada]
• Construcción del Estado Desarrollista
• Reducción del poder autónoma de la Oligarquía
avances en económica dinámica y desarrollo
Cambios Estructurales Regresivos
Primarización/Auge de Commodities
(Patrón de acumulación-nuevo rentismo)
A. Nuevo Extractivismo
B. Restructuración Agribusiness/Disarticulación
C. Maquilización
D. Informalización [hasta 40-60% PEA]
E. Estados Minimizados, sin capacidades de absorpción
F. Migración/Remesas [drenaje de capacidades]
G. Deindustrialización de firmas nacionales
Seminario internacional: avances en dinámicas
económicas y desarrollo
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Latin America and the Caribbean: terms of trade
2002 96.6
(2000= 100)
2003 98.6
2004 103.7
2005 108.8
2006 115.3
2007 118.0
2008 121.4
• Source: ECLAC 2009, Table A-12.
ADVANCES IN ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
Commodity Price Index (Raw Industrials)
1967 = 100
1947
1951
1955
1959
600
1963
1967
500
1971
1975
1979
400
1983
1987
300
1991
1995
200
1999
2003
100
2007
2008
0
2009
1947-2010 (April) {anualized basis]
2010
Table. At the roots of different East Asian and Latin American performances:
divergences in national systems of innovation and production in the 1980s
and 1990s (first part)
East Asia
Expanding education system with high proportion of engineering studies.
Rapid growth of scientific and technical activities at enterprise level, especially R&D.
Progressive integration of production design, marketing, and research activities within
the firm.
Development of strong science-technology infrastructure.
Strong influence of Japanese models of management and networking organization.
High levels of investment
Heavy investment in advanced telecommunications.
Strong and fast-growing electronic industries with high exports.
More generally, patterns of specialization favoring goods with high income elasticities.
Growing participation in international technology networks and agreements.
Rather sophisticated policy efforts aimed at fostering technological learning and
generalizing rent-seeking even under regimes of protection of domestic markets (until
the 1980s).
Relative egalitarian income distribution.
Source: Elaborations on Dosi, Freeman, and Fabiani (1994) and Freeman, C. (2008).
Table. At the roots of different East Asian and Latin American
performances: divergences in national systems of innovation and
production in the 1980s and 1990s (second part)
Latin America
Deteriorating education system with proportionally lower output of engineers.
Slow growth, stagnation, or decline of enterprise level R&D and other learning
activities.
Minimization State “Promoter” Functions: e.g. National Development Banks (Cypher)
Weakening of science-technology infrastructure.
Continuing influence of outdated management models.
Generally lower level of investment.
Slow development of modern telecommunication.
Weak electronic industries with low exports.
Specialization in low income elasticity goods.
Low level of international networking in technology.
From generalized protection with little anti-rent seeking safeguards to “wild market
regimes” with little learning incentives.
Very unequal income distribution –and increasingly so
Source: Elaborations on Dosi, Freeman, and Fabiani (1994) and Freeman, C. (2008).
“Advances in Economic Dynamics and Development”
Paradigmas Tecnológicos
I-. Son formaciones sociales temporales con una
interdependencia fuerte entre actividades tecnológicas y
económicas.
II-. Son trayectorias tecnológicas del progreso que forma la
dirección de actividades de “resolución d problemas” y que
tienen su propio momento.
Ej:
El paradigma Mecánico
Manufactura de la Revolución Industrial
“Tecnología y Diseño al sur del Mundo”
Paradigmas Tecnológicos
1-. Formas
Especificas
Irreversibles
Contingentes
de conocimiento
Usado para resolver problemas
2-. Una visión especifica de la manera de “hacer cosas”
(Conceptos Cognitivos colectivamente compartidos)
Conocimiento tácito encarnado en individuos.
3-. Modelos Básicos de artefactos que son mejorados y
modificados con el paso del tiempo.
“avances en economía dinámica y desarrollo”
Rendimiento económico (Privado, Público)
Contribuciones al crecimiento/desarrollo
Sistema Nacional de Innovación
Instituciones Vinculadas/Involucradas
Contribuciones Complementarias
Competencia
Capacidades
- Técnicas I+D +i, IED (negociado) Educación
- Organizacional
“avances en economía dinámica y desarrollo”
SNI (Sistema Nacional de Innovaciones)
Las instituciones complementarias son:
De emprendedor
-Empresas Privadas Funcionales
Organizativa
(I+D + i profundo)
-Universidades
-Laboratorios Públicos de Investigación
-Consultorías Privadas
-Asociaciones Industriales de Investigación
-Instituciones Publico/Privadas
-( e. g. Fundación Chile, Sematec)
Avances en economía dinámica
Avances en económica dinámica
La Política Industrial
Colaboración estratégica entre el sector privado y el sector publico
A-. Con el fin de revelar los obstáculos críticos a la
reestructuración.
B-. Con el fin de determinar cuales tipos de intervenciones serian
posibles y preferibles para resolver estos obstáculos.
Avances en economía dinámica
• Dani Rodrik has argued:
The right model for industrial policy is not
that of an autonomous government
applying [optimal] taxes or subsidies, but of
strategic collaboration between
the private sector and the government with
the aim of uncovering where the
most significant obstacles to restructuring lie
and what type of interventions are most
likely to remove them.
Avances en economía dinámica y desarrollo
Correspondingly, the analysis of industrial policy
needs to focus not on the policy outcomes—which are inherently unknowable
ex ante—but on getting the policy process right.
We need to worry about how we design a setting in which private and public
actors come together to solve problems in the productive sphere, each side
learning about the opportunities and constraints faced by the other, and not
about whether the right tool for industrial policy is, say, directed credit or
R&D subsidies or whether it is the steel industry that ought to be promoted
or the software industry.
Hence the right way of thinking of industrial policy is as a discovery process—
one where firms and the government learn about underlying costs and
opportunities and engage in strategic coordination. The traditional
arguments against industrial policy lose much of their force when we view
industrial policy in these terms
(Rodrik 2004)
Avances en economía dinámica y desarrollo
Auge de Commodities
↓
↓
Staples Trap
Staples Theory
(dependencia del sendero)
↓
↓
Caída eventual de
los términos del
Intercambio
falacia de
composición
↓
desplazamiento de sectores
com vinculos hacía atras y
adelante (Ej. caso Chileno
TFP = 0.0 2004-20008)
↓
↓
vínculos atrás
vínculos adelante
↓
diversificación del base prod.
“upgrading” hacía
actividades de alto valor
(Ej. casos Canadá,
Finlandia)
Avances en economía dinámica y desarrollo
Caso Brasil (optimista)
↓
↓
SNI
Staples Theory
↔
Política Industrial
(sector agroindustrial)
(USO CONSTRUCTIVO DEL EXEDENTE)
(sobre la industria)
↓
•
convergencia de capacidades en aumento por lado de la oferta
• con mejoramiento en la distribución del ingreso
• Estado Desarrollista (fin de autónomia del BC)
• Nuevo trato con los TNCs
• Nueva política del empleo/participación syndical
[visión de Furtado]