Transcript esp.ucsd.edu

The Future of Transportation
b
Melanie Zauscher
SIO 209
Future of Transportation
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Technologies
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Zero-Fare Transport
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Maglev
Bus Rapid Transport
Hasselt, Belgium
Paris Bicycle Program
Shipping
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Introduction
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In developing countries,
demand for private
vehicles is outpacing the
supply of infrastructure
Global transport energy
use is forecast to
increase 2% per year
Goods transport uses
35% of all transport
energy
Ribeiro, Kahn (2007) Transport and its Infrastructure. In Climate Change 2007:
Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report
for IPCC. Cambridge University Press
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Introduction
Ribeiro, Kahn (2007) Transport and its Infrastructure. In Climate Change 2007:
Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report
for IPCC. Cambridge University Press
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Maglev Trains
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Powered by electromagnetic force
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Potentially faster than
traditional trains
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not compatible with traditional
train infrastructure
low energy consumption and
maintenance
fastest recorded speed is 361 mph
Higher cost per mile, but can climb up 10%
gradient making it economically feasible
sometimes
James, Alan (2006) The Engineer. 293, 16
Yan, Luguang (2004) IEEE Trans on Applied Superconductivity. Vol. 14, No. 2
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Maglev Trains
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Only current high-speed commercial Maglev is in
Shanghai, China
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operational since 2003
18.6 miles to airport at 150 mph in 7.2 minutes
Work is underway to extend line 812 miles from
Shanghai to Beijing
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only a 3-hour trip (half the distance between LA & SF)!
James, Alan (2006) “Magnetic Attraction”. The Engineer. 293, 16
Yan, Luguang (2004) IEEE Trans on Applied Superconductivity. Vol. 14, No. 2
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Bus Rapid Transit
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High-capacity buses running on dedicated lanes
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convenient off-board payment collection
buses are easy and quick to board
service is frequent and reliable
BRT should be implemented in conjunction with
other planning measures
Patankar, Vaishali (2007), J. Urban Plng. and Devel., Volume 133, Issue 2
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Bus Rapid Transit
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Lower capital and operating costs
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Cost per mile comparison from LA:
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subway $258M
light rail $44M
BRT $24M
San Diego is preparing for BRT
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Escondido to Downtown via I-15
Fully completed in 2012, but in phases beginning 2008
Patankar, Vaishali (2007), J. Urban Plng. and Devel., Volume 133, Issue 2
http://www.sandag.cog.ca.us/index.asp?projectid=34&fuseaction=projects.detai
l
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Zero-Fare Transport
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Funded by other means than a transport fare
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Ferries, buses, shuttles, bike programs
Provider has incentives to:
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taxes or corporate sponsorships
reduce air pollution and congestion
service their customers, employees, or students
save $$ by not building or having to maintain bridges,
parking, and streets
Examples
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National parks, ski resorts, college campuses,
downtown areas, and whole towns!
Olson, Dave (2007) The Tyee. “No Hassle Transit? Try Hasselt” 10/7/07
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Hasselt, Belgium
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Hasselt, Belgium
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Between 1987-1999, population rose 3%, but
number of cars 25%
70,000 residents and 300,000 commuters
Improved bus system along with pedestrian and
bicycle infrastructure first
Zero-fare started in 1997
Can borrow a bicycle, tandem, scooter,
wheelchair, stroller for free
Saved millions of Euros on transportation
infrastructure costs
Olson, Dave (2007) The Tyee. “No Hassle Transit? Try Hasselt” 10/7/07
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Paris Bicycle Program
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Paris Bicycle Program
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Paris got the bikes in exchange for exclusive
rights to 1000+ billboards in the city
For a weekly or yearly fee, users can ride bikes
for free up to 30 minutes
Over 10,000 bikes in over 750 locations!
In 2 months 3.7 million rides!
Goal was to reduce air pollution and traffic
Successful because this is one of several
modes of transit available in Paris
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14429468
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Shipping
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~90% of global merchandise
is transported by sea
Because of the bottom line,
shipping companies are more
conscious of energy efficiency
As economic growth and
integration continues,
shipping will continue to
increase
Last unregulated source of air
pollution
Ribeiro, Kahn (2007) Transport and its Infrastructure. In Climate Change 2007:
Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report
for IPCC. Cambridge University Press
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Shipping
Eyring, V. (2004). Emissions from international shipping: 2 Impact of future technologies on
scenarios until 2050. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol 110
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Port of LA
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Largest port in the country
Have a 5 year plan to reduce 45% of air pollution
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Replace or retrofit 16,000 trucks
Alternative Maritime Power Program
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plug-in to grid instead of running on diesel power when
docked
available since 2004 and growing
ships must be retrofitted to AMP specifications
Have a RPF out for zero emissions container mover
systems
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maglev
blimp
http://www.portoflosangeles.org
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So, what will be the future of transportation?
Why do we prefer to buy something from across
the world?
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Bonus: real or science fiction?
Flying car
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M200G volantor by
Moller International
2 passenger
Flies 10 feet off the
ground, avoiding FAA
regulation
Up to 50 mph
$90,000 to $125,000
http://www.moller.com/files/M200_Production_starts.pdf
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Bonus: real or science fiction?
Flying cruise ship
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Aerocraft
Not a blimp
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not filled with gas
lighter than air
Built for luxury
http://www.popsci.com/popsci/whatsnew/18ac893302839010vgnvcm1000004eecbccdrcr
d.html?s_prop18=whatsnew
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