Transcript Can Aust Soil Science Save the World?

Global Food Security:
defusing the ticking time-bombs
Nature & Society Forum
Canberra,
March 20, 2013
Julian Cribb FTSE
Goal: feed >10 bn from 2060-2130
Food
demand to
double
Global
food
demand
A ‘wicked’ problem...
DEMAND:
CONSTRAINTS:
 216,000 more people every day
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 More babies + longer lives
 Population peak >10-11 bn
 Food demand soars in emerging
economies
 Food demand +100% by 2060s
 +>50% climate penalty by 2100
‘Peak water’
‘Peak land’
‘Peak oil’
‘Peak P’
‘Peak fish’
‘R&D drought’
‘Capital drought’
‘Climate extinction’
Peak water
We each use >
Groundwater mining
Vanishing
lakes
Disappearing deltas
Retreating rivers
Shrinking glaciers
The expert’s view
“To feed 9 billion will
require 14000 cu
kms of water – twice
our present use...or
>50 more Aswan
dams
(11,000 SydHarbs)
These vast amounts
are not available”
- Colin Chartres
Water timebomb
 Critical scarcity: Indo-
Gangetic Plain, N China
Plain, M-East, N-Africa.
 Energy sector: water
demand to double.
 Cities: water demand to
double.
 Will we have to double
food production on half
the water?
Soil timebomb
“The Earth is losing topsoil at a rate of 75
to 100 GT. per year. If soil loss continues
at present rates, it is estimated that there
is only another 48 years of topsoil left.”
- Marler & Wallin, Nutrition Security Institute, USA, 2006
Peak land
4.96
4.94
3Peak land 2000
4.92
4.9
4.88
4.86
4.84
Source: FAO SOLAW Report 2011
“... land and water
systems now face the
risk of progressive
breakdown of their
productive capacity
due to excessive
demographic
pressure and
unsustainable
agricultural
practices.”
- FAO SOLAW Report 2011
Megacities: mega-risks
By 2050...
By 2020s...
7-8 billion will live in cities
Total urban area = China
Urban water use 2800 cu kms
Cities cannot feed themselves
Peak oil:
2006
 61m new vehicles/year
 1.2 billion vehicles by 2020
 Car growth +8% yr
 Oil production growth +0.7%
Food & oil prices are
in lockstep
Food
uses 30%
of global
energy:
FAO
Why we must recycle nutrients
< 30-50% of
world’s food is
currently wasted
or lost postharvest
Peak phosphorus 5
Resources for artificial fertilisers will
Be scarce by 2050 >
Peak fish: 2004
“The maximum wild capture
fishery potential from the
world’s oceans has probably
been reached .” – FAO 2012
But total fish demand could
be 220mt or more by 2060.
By 2060 we will need:
• 100m tonnes more fish
• 5 bn tonnes of stock feed
• new sources of transport fuel
= massive aquaculture
opportunities....
Knowledge drought
Global food R&D
investment
Falling ag.science
Falling crop yields
35 R&D
stagnation
Climate
impact
on food
+ 4-6o C
warming
by 2100
 10% less food for every 1o of global warming
 Metabolic impacts in the tropics
 Farming ‘highly vulnerable’ above 2o
 Need 150% more food than today by 2100.
Famine drives conflict
Map: UK MoD
The challenge
To double global food output with:
- half the present fresh water
- much less land
- no fossil fuels (eventually)
- scarce and costly fertilisers
- less technology
- inadequate $ investment
- growing climate instability.
Solutions...
 Reinvent farming & food systems:
sustainable, low-input eco-farming
 Reinvest massively in food S&T
 Reinvent the global diet: so it kills less
planet & fewer people
 Redesign cities: to recycle water,
nutrients, carbon and grow food.
The future ecofarm
 Combines best from advanced high-tech systems with
permaculture thinking and automation
 Major focus on soil biology, crop science, nutrient
recycling, soil, water, energy & carbon conservation
 Operates at small and large scales, across landscapes
Desert
farm
Urban farms: 3050% of world’s food
Fish farming
World demand for 550 million tonnes of
meat and fish by 2100, +2 billion
tonnes of feed.
Algae boom
By 2050 algae will supply much of the
world’s liquid fuels, food, stockfeed,
plastics, chemicals , textiles, drugs.
Bioculture
boom
New crops: 25,000 edible plants
Our task now
 Pioneer eco-farming: more food with less
water, energy, land, inputs
 Share food and ag knowledge globally
 Diets for health and sustainability
 Cities that recycle water, nutrients into
novel food systems
 Inspire society with a new respect for food
 Understand that food is intrinsic to a safe,
sustainable and peaceful world.
Thank you
“The Coming Famine”
is published by the University of
California Press and CSIRO
Publishing.
It was supported by the Crawford
Fund and Land & Water Australia.
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https://twitter.com/#!/ComingFamine
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