Can Aust Soil Science Save the World?
Download
Report
Transcript Can Aust Soil Science Save the World?
Global Food Security:
defusing the ticking time-bombs
Nature & Society Forum
Canberra,
March 20, 2013
Julian Cribb FTSE
Goal: feed >10 bn from 2060-2130
Food
demand to
double
Global
food
demand
A ‘wicked’ problem...
DEMAND:
CONSTRAINTS:
216,000 more people every day
More babies + longer lives
Population peak >10-11 bn
Food demand soars in emerging
economies
Food demand +100% by 2060s
+>50% climate penalty by 2100
‘Peak water’
‘Peak land’
‘Peak oil’
‘Peak P’
‘Peak fish’
‘R&D drought’
‘Capital drought’
‘Climate extinction’
Peak water
We each use >
Groundwater mining
Vanishing
lakes
Disappearing deltas
Retreating rivers
Shrinking glaciers
The expert’s view
“To feed 9 billion will
require 14000 cu
kms of water – twice
our present use...or
>50 more Aswan
dams
(11,000 SydHarbs)
These vast amounts
are not available”
- Colin Chartres
Water timebomb
Critical scarcity: Indo-
Gangetic Plain, N China
Plain, M-East, N-Africa.
Energy sector: water
demand to double.
Cities: water demand to
double.
Will we have to double
food production on half
the water?
Soil timebomb
“The Earth is losing topsoil at a rate of 75
to 100 GT. per year. If soil loss continues
at present rates, it is estimated that there
is only another 48 years of topsoil left.”
- Marler & Wallin, Nutrition Security Institute, USA, 2006
Peak land
4.96
4.94
3Peak land 2000
4.92
4.9
4.88
4.86
4.84
Source: FAO SOLAW Report 2011
“... land and water
systems now face the
risk of progressive
breakdown of their
productive capacity
due to excessive
demographic
pressure and
unsustainable
agricultural
practices.”
- FAO SOLAW Report 2011
Megacities: mega-risks
By 2050...
By 2020s...
7-8 billion will live in cities
Total urban area = China
Urban water use 2800 cu kms
Cities cannot feed themselves
Peak oil:
2006
61m new vehicles/year
1.2 billion vehicles by 2020
Car growth +8% yr
Oil production growth +0.7%
Food & oil prices are
in lockstep
Food
uses 30%
of global
energy:
FAO
Why we must recycle nutrients
< 30-50% of
world’s food is
currently wasted
or lost postharvest
Peak phosphorus 5
Resources for artificial fertilisers will
Be scarce by 2050 >
Peak fish: 2004
“The maximum wild capture
fishery potential from the
world’s oceans has probably
been reached .” – FAO 2012
But total fish demand could
be 220mt or more by 2060.
By 2060 we will need:
• 100m tonnes more fish
• 5 bn tonnes of stock feed
• new sources of transport fuel
= massive aquaculture
opportunities....
Knowledge drought
Global food R&D
investment
Falling ag.science
Falling crop yields
35 R&D
stagnation
Climate
impact
on food
+ 4-6o C
warming
by 2100
10% less food for every 1o of global warming
Metabolic impacts in the tropics
Farming ‘highly vulnerable’ above 2o
Need 150% more food than today by 2100.
Famine drives conflict
Map: UK MoD
The challenge
To double global food output with:
- half the present fresh water
- much less land
- no fossil fuels (eventually)
- scarce and costly fertilisers
- less technology
- inadequate $ investment
- growing climate instability.
Solutions...
Reinvent farming & food systems:
sustainable, low-input eco-farming
Reinvest massively in food S&T
Reinvent the global diet: so it kills less
planet & fewer people
Redesign cities: to recycle water,
nutrients, carbon and grow food.
The future ecofarm
Combines best from advanced high-tech systems with
permaculture thinking and automation
Major focus on soil biology, crop science, nutrient
recycling, soil, water, energy & carbon conservation
Operates at small and large scales, across landscapes
Desert
farm
Urban farms: 3050% of world’s food
Fish farming
World demand for 550 million tonnes of
meat and fish by 2100, +2 billion
tonnes of feed.
Algae boom
By 2050 algae will supply much of the
world’s liquid fuels, food, stockfeed,
plastics, chemicals , textiles, drugs.
Bioculture
boom
New crops: 25,000 edible plants
Our task now
Pioneer eco-farming: more food with less
water, energy, land, inputs
Share food and ag knowledge globally
Diets for health and sustainability
Cities that recycle water, nutrients into
novel food systems
Inspire society with a new respect for food
Understand that food is intrinsic to a safe,
sustainable and peaceful world.
Thank you
“The Coming Famine”
is published by the University of
California Press and CSIRO
Publishing.
It was supported by the Crawford
Fund and Land & Water Australia.
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/#!/ComingFamine
Debate global food security on:
www.sciencealert.com.au/global-