Transcript Slide 1
Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply Jack Forster (DECC) Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply • Talk is framed around informing policy through improved methodology • Where did we start? • How did we improve this to help inform policy on gas infrastructure resilience? • Where do we want to take this in the future? Where did we start? • Previous analysis on physical gas flows across Europe • Gas map (gas flows in/out of EU Member States) • Bubble chart showing self-sufficiency, relative consumption and diversity of imports (IEA data) Where did we start? What are the important questions? • Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to policy colleagues and economists • What did they want to know? - How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)? - How many pipelines/storage sites etc. are there? - How does the UK compare to other EU Member States? - How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)? How did we address these questions? • Comparative infrastructure assessment • What are the sources of gas supply? - Pipeline imports LNG terminal imports Gas storage supply Indigenous production • Universal metric required for these imports • Data needs to be available How did we address these questions? • Universal metric = Peak flow (PF) • Peak flow = maximum output from pipeline in volume per time (bcm per day) • Can be summed by source and by country • Allows comparison across EU Member States • Can be compared to peak demand • Easy to understand 1.2 1 Germany Italy United Kingdom France Netherlands Spain Belgium Romania Poland Hungary Austria Czech Republic Slovak Republic Lithuania Latvia Denmark Greece Finland Portugal Ireland Bulgaria Sweden Luxembourg Slovenia Estonia Cyprus* Malta* How did we address these questions? 1.4 Peak Output from Import Pipelines Peak Output from LNG Terminals Peak Output from Storage Facilities Peak Indigenous Production Peak Demand 0.8 Peak Flow 0.6 (bcm per day) 0.4 0.2 0 How did we address these questions? • Chart is useful illustrative tool but does not act as a metric for comparison • We used a simple PF - 1, PF - 2 metric • Similar to N-1 measure in EU Regulation No.994/2010 therefore familiar to Policy How did we address these questions? EPmax Pmax S max LNGmax I max PF 1% Dmax Where: PF = Peak Flow (bcm/day) EPmax = Peak capacity of entry points (bcm/day) Pmax = Peak capacity for each indigenous production pipeline (bcm/day) Smax = Peak output for each storage facility (bcm/day) LNGmax = Peak output for each LNG terminal (bcm/day) Dmax = Average 2012 peak gas demand (bcm/day) Imax = Peak daily capacity of single largest supply route (bcm/day) How did we address these questions? 400% >200% Peak Daily Demand Met 100 to 200% Peak Daily Demand Met <100% Peak Daily Demand Met Peak Flow minus 1 Peak Flow minus 2 Belgium Czech Republic Germany 300% Netherlands Estonia Percentage of Maximum Daily 200% Demand met by Peak Flow Austria United Kingdom France Spain Denmark Poland Slovak Republic Hungary Italy Portugal Luxembourg Slovenia 100% Greece Bulgaria Latvia Romania Ireland Lithuania Sweden Finland 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Percentage of Total Primary Energy Consumption 50% How did we address these questions? • How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)? - UK has a range of gas sources - Peak supply able to meet peak demand twice over in 2012, even after removal of two largest gas supplies • How does the UK compare to other EU Member States? - Sixth most resilient Member State (PF-1, PF-2) - UK has most diverse range of sources - UK has less storage than other top 5 gas demanding Member States What are the important questions? • Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to Policy colleagues and economists • What did they want to know? - How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)? - How does the UK compare to other EU Member States? - How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)? How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss? • So far, we have looked at within-country infrastructure disruptions • What about EU-wide supply disruptions? • European gas supply 2012 - 24% from Russia (116 bcm) 21% from Norway (102 bcm) 8% North Africa (Algeria, Libya) 12% LNG (77 bcm, Qatar, Nigeria, Algeria) • Clear risks here UKRAINE 19.4 53.2 121.0 How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss? EU MS A Supply country EU MS B EU MS C Supply country EU MS D LNG How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss? • With the loss of a supply route, how much spare capacity is there in the system? - Gas sources Max flow Connections between countries Time of year (demand, storage) • Can we model this system? How resilient is the UK/EU in case of future major supply loss? Conclusions • We now have good understanding of withinEU Member State infrastructure resilience, and appropriate methodology for a crosscountry comparison of resilience • Much improved on previous work in terms of informing policy • Looking to the future, we need to examine EU-wide supply disruptions: this is the hot topic Conclusions Initial Results Initial Results -0.05 Tuesday,… Monday,… Sunday,… Saturday,… Friday, January… Thursday,… Wednesday,… Tuesday,… Monday,… Sunday,… Saturday,… Friday, January… Thursday,… Wednesday,… Tuesday,… Monday,… Sunday,… Saturday,… Friday, January… Thursday,… Wednesday,… Tuesday,… Monday,… Sunday,… Saturday,… Friday, January… Thursday,… Wednesday,… Tuesday,… Monday,… Sunday,… Initial Results: German Gas Supply (No Russian Gas) 0.25 0.2 0.15 Peak Supply minus Peak Demand 0.1 (bcm per day) 0.05 0