Transcript The oil endgame - Austrian Institute of Economic Research

KS 320.382
Energy and Sustainable Development
Prof. Dr. Stefan Schleicher
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=Ulxe1ie-vEY
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Oil is the most important fossil resource.
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Crude oil is finite!
A phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil“
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Civilization (as we know it) is coming to an end soon
Figure1: Daily oil consumption
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From 1994 to 2006:
oil demand grew an average of 1.76 % per year
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more than 85 million barrels of oil are needed to meet
the daily needs of the globe
oil consumption has increased 25 % over the past decade
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“All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much
been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and
producing oil from more challenging environments and
work areas.”
Prof. William J. Cummings, company spokesman of American
multinational oil and gas corporation ExxonMobil (December 2005)
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“It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding
any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or
unconventional oil is going to be expensive.”
Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell (October 2008)
Source : BP statistical review of world energy, June 2006
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Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of
global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the
rate of production begins to go down.
Early predictions about an oil peak were made by M.
King Hubert who predicted an oil peak would occur in
1996. This was not the case.
Recent researches say:
2006 was the year of global Peak Oil !
World Oil Production Forecast (Update November 2009)
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published by the Rocky Mountain Institute
four ways to reduce petroleum dependence in
the United States:
using oil twice more efficiently
replacing petroleum fuels with biofuels
substituting saved natural gas for oil
replacing oil with hydrogen
worldwide oil production in 2030
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worldwide oil production as it was in 1980
→
→
→
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worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide
production of oil
price will skyrocket
oil dependant economies will crumble
resource wars will explode
► the reserves are distributed unequally in the different geographical zones
of the earth, and that means that some countries will experience a
shortage much sooner than others.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=Or-TyPACK-g