Transcript Youth and Development in the IDB Member Countries

The State of the Youth
in the Muslim World
Seminar on «Youth and Development in the IDB Member Countries»
April 2, 2012
Khartoum, Sudan
Outline
• Youth in the Member Countries
• Challenges: Education and Employment
• Consequences: Social unrest, poverty, conflict
• Responses: Vocational Education and Training
• SESRIC Responses: OIC-VET, SDYE, OIC-ISIP, IMTP, OIC-PAP
• Final Remarks
2
Youth as a Strength
The share of young
population accounted for
53.5
PER CENT
of the OIC total population
in 2009
With 1.57 billion people in 2010, the OIC countries accounted for almost 23
per cent of the world total population.
The share of the young population (age group 0-24) in the total population of
the OIC countries reached 53.5 per cent in 2010; the highest share compared
to all other groups of countries in the world.
1.57
BILLION PEOPLE
Population of the
OIC Countries in 2010
3
Higher percentage of young population will be the key
driver of economic development
Youth as a Challenge
Poor quality
education
High youth
unemployment
with poverty and inequality
Mismatch
between
composition of
skills and the
needs of the
labour market
4
Youth as a Challenge
High
unemployment
Poverty
Inequality
Social unrest
5
State of the Muslim Youth
EDUCATION
6
Education – Average Schooling
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 7: Average Years of Schooling over a Century
0
2
4
6
8
Average Years of Schooling
10
12
Source: UN Data
In OIC member countries, average years of schooling have substantially increased over the last
40 years.
The number of countries with schooling more than 6 years was only 4 in 1970. This number
increased to 26 in 2010.
In 2030 the minimum years of schooling will be 4 years and in 2050 it will be 6 years.
7
Education – Average Spending
The government expenditures on education per pupil as percentage of GDP per capita
25
23.5
20
20.5
21.2
1999
21.8
Percent
18.1
2008
18.2
16.5
16.3
15
10
5
0
World
Developed
Developing
OIC
Source: SESRIC (2010)
World average government expenditures on education per pupil as percentage GDP per
capita increased from 20.5% in 1999 to 21.2% in 2008.
The increase in this ratio in developing countries as well as OIC countries was quite
limited as compared to developed countries.
8
Education – Quality
The mean performance of students on mathematics, reading and science
for all 10 OIC countries taking part in the PISA study of OECD (2009)
Among the 65 countries or economies
surveyed in the study, 7 of the 10 worst
performers on the overall reading scale
are the OIC member countries.
Turkey as the best performing OIC
member country occupies only 41st
position.
Kyrgyzstan
Azerbaijan
Qatar
Albania
Kazakhstan
Indonesia
Tunisia
Jordan
Dubai
(UAE)
Turkey
OECD
Average
0
100
Science
200
300
Mathematics
400
Reading
500
600
Several studies illustrate the seriousness of
the learning challenge.
- More than 30 per cent of Malian youths
aged 15–19 years who completed six years of
schooling could not read a simple sentence.
- In Pakistan, tests of grade 3 children found
that only half could answer very basic
multiplication questions (World Bank, 2011).
9
12
16
Figure 18: Schooling and Productivity Growth
8
TKM
4
NER
MLI
UGA
SDN
MOZ
SLE
GMB
BFA
BGDIDN
NGA EGY
LBY
TUN IRN
PAK IRQ
KWT
TUR
SYRCOM
MDV CMR
DZA SAU
GAB
TGO
MAR
MRT
BEN
YEM SEN
GIN
TCD
CIV
0
y = 0.112x + 2.5697
R-sqr = 0.023
UZB
JOR TJK
KAZ
ALB
ARE
KGZ
MYS
BHR
GUY
BRN
-4
Productivity Growth
Education – Quality and Productivity
0
3
6
Average Years of Schooling
9
12
Source: SESRIC staff estimation and World Bank
One year increase in average schooling is associated with 0.1% increase in
productivity (GDP per worker) and this is a relatively poor improvement.
10
State of the Muslim Youth
EMPLOYMENT
11
Skill Mismatch
Skill Mismatch
• An adequate basic education may not be enough to find work
because they do not provide the skills needed by employers.
• Despite persistent joblessness among young people, employers usually complain
that they can’t find enough workers with the skills they need to grow their
businesses.
Broadening learning opportunities for the young, especially by
improving quality
• Better learning outcomes take more than investment in school buildings and
classrooms, trained teachers and professors, and textbooks.
• Special programs should be developed to teach young people to make good
decisions when investing in their human capital, by giving them information,
resources, and second-chance opportunities.
12
Youth Unemployment – OIC Countries
Poor quality
education
High
unemployment
rates
Skill mismatch
46.9
Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24)
50.0
45.0
7.7
6.7
5.4
3.8
5.0
1.6
10.0
5.2
14.8
14.6
12.1
11.3
10.9
15.0
9.3
30.7
28.3
27.2
27.0
24.8
24.3
24.0
22.2
22.2
22.1
21.9
21.5
19.2
20.0
14.5
25.0
18.4
30.0
23.0
35.0
28.2
40.0
0.0
13
Youth Unemployment – Global and Regional
In the Middle East and North Africa regions, youth are around four times as likely as adults to be
unemployed, with youth unemployment rates well in excess of 25 per cent in both regions (ILO,
Global Employment Trends 2012).
The increase in social unrest in many countries and regions around the world is of little surprise.
14
Unemployment - Consequences
Major impacts on economic
growth due to the loss or
degradation of human capital
Wasted
productive
capacities
Social
injustice
and
inequality
Other socioeconomic
impacts:
Increasing
brain drain
Youth
Unemployment
Lower
lifetime
earnings
and
poverty
Lower life
expectancy
and even
higher rates
of suicide
Higher
crime rates
and
conflicts
15
Poverty: A Challenge for Social Equality
Inadequate
Education
Unemployment
Poverty
According to the latest available estimates of World Bank, 351 million people (27% of OIC total
population) were living below the income poverty threshold of 1.25$ a day whereas 640 million people
(49% of OIC total population) were living below the poverty threshold of 2$ a day.
Source: World Bank http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?1
16
Poverty: A Challenge for Social Equality
Poverty Headcount Ratio : % of population living in households with consumption
or income per person below the poverty line. The default poverty line is $38.00
per month (Source: World Bank, 2012. http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?1)
17
Poverty: A Challenge for Social Equality
Although GDP per capita of OIC Member Countries was increasing for the last decade,
the number of people living less than 1.25$ a day have not decreased, this fact points
out unequal distribution of income in Member Countries.
Source: World Bank, 2012. http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?1
18
Poverty: A Challenge for Social Equality
Unequal Redistribution of Wealth
Income Share Held by Lowest and Highest 10%
0
Afghanistan
Kazakhstan
Tajikistan
Iraq
Mali
Pakistan
Egypt
Sudan
Bangladesh
Togo
Azerbaijan
Kyrgyz Republic
Palestine
Indonesia
Niger
Jordan
Albania
Turkey
Iran
Senegal
Guinea
Cameroon
Yemen
Mauritania
Cote d'Ivoire
Burkina Faso
Tunisia
Gabon
Morocco
Malaysia
Qatar
Uganda
Mozambique
Nigeria
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.8
3.5
4.4
4.0
2.7
4.0
3.3
3.4
2.8
3.2
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.5
2.1
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.4
2.2
2.9
2.4
2.6
2.7
1.8
1.3
2.4
1.9
1.8
23.2
23.8
24.3
25.2
25.8
26.1
26.6
26.7
27.0
27.1
27.4
27.8
28.2
28.5
28.5
28.7
29.0
29.4
29.6
30.1
30.3
30.4
30.8
31.6
31.8
32.2
32.5
33.0
33.2
34.7
35.9
36.1
36.7
38.2
Income share held by
lowest 10%
Income share held by
highest 10%
OIC averages of income share held by highest 10% is approximately 29.7% and income share
held by lowest 10% is 2.9%; implies that the top 10% of population take benefit of 30
percentage of GDP but the remaining 90% of population just gain 70 percentages of GDP.
Despite the increase of GDP per capita of OIC Member Countries for the last decade, any
improvement in unequal income distribution is observed.
19
Top 10 Internet Sites & Social Networking
Top 5 Users in the World
FACEBOOK
Malaysia (5)
Argentina (4)
Egypt (3)
Turkey (2)
Indonesia (1)
Google (1) Facebook (2) YouTube (3)
Yahoo (4)
Baidu (5) Wikipedia (6) Windows
Live (7)
Blogspot (8)
QQ (9)
Twitter (10)
Increasing number of young people are participating in public debate, making use of high-tech
communication tools and social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter . Studies show that social
media carried a cascade of messages about freedom and democracy, equality across North Africa and
the Middle East and played a critical role in shaping opinions and influencing change, in the Arap Spring.
20
State of the Muslim Youth
THREATS
21
Threats
• A rising youth share of the population signals increases in the
productive capacity of an economy on a per capita basis in the years to
come.
• It also poses a risk of social and political instability in economies that fail
to generate sufficient jobs.
Social unrests due to high unemployment rates
• Millions of young people were chanting “dignity” and “social justice” in the MENA
region, underlining deep-seated feelings of exclusion and inequality of opportunities.
• Those who are unemployed and unmarried have relatively little to lose and relatively
more to gain from change. New social media facilitate communication and organizing.
• Demanding democracy, human rights, and better governance, young Arabs were also
striving to realize their economic aspirations in a region rich in human and physical
capital.
• While there has been economic growth for a number of years in MENA countries, this
has not led to an adequate number of good jobs and has succeeded, at best, in
generating low-quality, informal jobs.
22
Informal Employment
Informality as «lack of social
security coverage»
• A typical MENA country
produces one-third of its
GDP and employs 67 percent
of its labor force informally.
• Over two-thirds of workers
may not have access to
health insurance and/or are
not contributing to a pension
that provides income security
after retirement.
Source: World Bank, MENA Knowledge and Learning, Dec. 2011
The Schneider Index estimates the share of production not declared to
tax and regulatory authorities
23
Social Exclusion
Knowledge Gap of Muslim Youth
• Muslim youth fail to have a thirst for knowledge
• Lack of self-confidence
Alienation of Muslim youth
• Bridges between generations are being impaired and youth are becoming
alienated from Muslim community.
• Rising identity problem
Idleness
• Intellectual deficiency, emotional instability and reckless actions
24
RESPONSE: Good quality education, better employment prospects, preserving
the moral values and sense of belonging
Indonesia vs. Nigeria
Indonesia
• In 1980, Nigeria’s GDP per capita was slightly higher than that of Indonesia,
but today it is only half that.
• Indonesia used much of its oil revenue to educate its youth.
• It successfully absorbed its young people into productive employment and
elevated their standard of living.
Nigeria
• There are currently 32 million Nigerians ages 15 to 24, and more than double
that number under the age of 15.
• Investments in their skills and health, and in the physical capital,
infrastructure, and institutions that will make them productive, will help
determine Nigeria’s development success.
• Failure to satisfy the desire of youth for productive engagement could further
undermine political legitimacy, promote frustration and conflict, and deter
investment.
Source: IMF, Finance & Development March 2012
25
State of the Muslim Youth
RESPONSES
26
Responses to the Challenge
Enhancing Employability
• Active Labour Market Policies and Vocational Education and
Training Programmes
Labour Market Challenges in the OIC Member Countries
A significant portion of the jobs available are either low-quality informal jobs or
formal jobs in the public sector
Weak linkages between education institutions, enterprises and employment
offices
Concerns
&
Challenges
Lack and low quality of vocational education and training trap the poor workers in
low-skilled, low-productive and low-wage jobs
Mismatch between composition of skills and capabilities and the needs of the
labour market
Difficulties for workers to move between jobs prevent them finding jobs suitable
to their skills
27
SESRIC Responses to the Challenge
Skill Development
for Youth
Employment
PublicPrivate
Partnership
Skill
Development
for Youth
Employment
Matching
Skills and
Jobs
On-the-jobtraining
The initiative of the IDB and the World Bank (IFC): Education for Employment (e4e)
With the aim of
• Bridging the gap between existing education and employment
• Narrowing the skills gap among young people in the Arab world
28
Skill Development for Youth Employment
The study visit included
8 selected OIC Member
Countries, namely
Cameroon, Egypt,
Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan,
Morocco, Palestine,
Senegal, and Tunisia.
29
11-13 January 2012, ANKARA / TURKEY
Study Visit on Skill Development for Youth Employment
OIC International Student Internship
Programme (OIC-ISIP)
A special programme developed
under the OIC-VET Programme
and operated under the
International Business Forum
(IBF) hosted by Independent
Industrialists and Businessmen's
Association (MÜSİAD). It
basically aims at increasing
knowledge and skills of
university students about to
enter into the labour market.
6 OCTOBER 2010, ISTANBUL / TURKEY
Certificate Ceremony of OIC-ISIP Pilot Application of
Summer 2010
10 students from 7 Member Countries, namely
Afghanistan, Yemen, Albania, Senegal, Indonesia, Guinea,
and Uzbekistan
30
ISMEK Master Trainer Programme
24-28 OCTOBER 2011, ISTANBUL / TURKEY
Certificate Ceremony of the Master Trainers from
Republic of Azerbaijan
İSMEK
Master
Trainer
Programme (IMTP) is a joint
programme between Statistical
Economic and Social Research
and Training Centre for Islamic
Countries (SESRIC) and the
Centre for Art and Vocational
Training Courses of Istanbul
Metropolitan
Municipality
(İSMEK), initiated at beginning of
2011 and aims
to provide
training courses to master
trainers in various vocational
education institutions which
targets
to
reduce
youth
unemployment rate in OIC
Member Countries.
31
Poverty Alleviation Programme (OIC-PAP)
SESRIC has established OIC Poverty Alleviation Programme (OIC-PAP) to have more
active and vital role in coordination of all possible future events, trainings, capacity
building programmes, research and other activities in the field of poverty alleviation.
32
Poverty Alleviation Programme (OIC-PAP)
33
Final Remarks
• Youth as a strength
• High share of young population
• Youth as a challenge
• Qualitative improvements in education is needed in addition to
quantitative improvements
• Provision of right skills to the young
• Youth as a threat
• Social unrests due to high unemployment rates
• Responses to the challenges
• International responses through ALMPs
• SESRIC responses: OIC-VET, SDYE, OIC-ISIP,IMTP, OIC-PAP
34
State of the Muslim Youth
DISCUSSIONS
35