Transcript Will Day - CaRe

INTERREG IVA 2 Mers Seas Zeeën Crossborder Cooperation Programme 2007-2013
Part-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
Going Green:
Carbon reduction through nature
CaRe-Lands
Cluster event
June, 25th 2014
INTERREG IVA 2 Mers Seas Zeeën Crossborder Cooperation Programme 2007-2013
Part-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
Will Day
Going Green:
Carbon reduction through nature
Will Day
Grandhotel ter Duin
June 2014
The
Economy
Slide 6
The great acceleration
Northern Hemisphere average surface temperature
Population
GDP
Foreign investment
1750
1850
Species extinctions
Motor vehicles
1950
New Scientist 2008 from Steffen et al 2004
With a population of 8.3 billion people by 2030,
we’ll need…
50%
more
energy
Source: OECD; Dan Hammer, Center for Global Development
40%
more
water
35%
more
food
The Food-Water-Energy Nexus
Water
Food
Land
Energy
Scarce resources
Worsening per capita water availability
Slide 13
To meet the increasing demand from
a growing population, we will need
to produce more food in the next
40 years than has been produced in
the previous 8,000 years.
Jason Clay, Senior Vice President WWF
There is less land than you think
Land area of all countries,
in billions of acres
37.1 Total
3.5
Source: Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin
Arable land
Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Food production is very energy intensive
Fossil Energy
we put in…
+
+
Agricultural Production
Transportation
Processing Industry
Packaging Material
Food Energy
we get out!
Food Retail
Commercial Food Service
Household Storage
& Preparation
Food Energy
Available
Source: University of Michigan study by Hellar and Keoleian done in 2000
Food Energy Available
Expected growth in biofuel demand
0
0
0
,
0
0
0
?
N
o
7,200,000,000?
Country population: past, present, future
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This interactive visualisation depicts dramatic population changes, based on data released by the UN Department of Economic and
Social Affiars/Population Division for 1950 – 2010 and a projection for 2100.
Slide 24
Slide 27
Stern Review
Slide 29
Trust in institutions to operate in society’s best interest
TRUT
What can we expect?
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Changing rainfall and weather patterns
Sea level rise
Loss of habitat
Loss of biodiversity
Increasing extreme weather
Migration
What is the impact?
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Growing global demand for food production
Requirement for renewable energy
Shorter supply chains
Africa as the world’s bread basket?
Massive urban growth
It’s not as simple as we might think
• Crops bad, trees good? Need to understand the
science
• Cities bad, countryside good? – can’t be competition
– Costa Rica
• Land use change on it’s own insufficient - ‘Reducing
emissions in the land use sector cannot compensate
for a lack of reduction in industrial emissions.’
Who does what best?
Government – Environment Minister, Regulators,
Planning authorities, Protected areas
Market – Commercial agriculture, Rural economies.
Green growth
NGOs/civil society – lobby, advocate, consume,
vote, educate
Technology?
Why Sustainable Development?
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Not ‘sustained…’
Should be ‘common sense’
Joined up – economics, politics, environment, social
Chinese Vice-Minister – the most important
conversation
• Helps think beyond short term commercial and
political timetables
Politically inconvenient
Imperatives…..
• Decarbonise the global economy – vital and urgent
• Recognise the true value of nature and of the services
we derive from it – health, water, food, fibre, fuel
• Protect our threatened biodiversity
• Appreciate the need for successful rural economies
• Make better informed planning decisions
• Help legislators and citizens understand why
land use, and the longer term, matters
• Work together
Thank you
Dank u
[email protected]