Transcript The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) -- Two years Later (Parsons)

Atmospheric Technology Division
The International H2O Project
(IHOP_2002) -- Two years Later
Expected Outcomes, Pleasant Surprises
and Future Challenges
David Parsons and Tammy Weckwerth
NCAR/ATD
Boulder, CO
USA
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Motivation
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Motivation
•
Floods, especially flash floods, cause more deaths each year than tornadoes,
hurricanes, lightning and wind storms
•
Significant property losses due to flash floods and they are the highest
percentage of federal aid events. (Recently >$8 billion per year and rising).
•
Warnings are difficult: often night time events, public perception of precipitation
events, dependent on hydrology and meteorology, and increases in skill will
help (current warnings often < 1h).
•
The problem of poor forecasts of flash floods and warm season convective is a
problem that is international in scope.
•
It has been argued that improvements in QPF for non-flood situations will have
significant economic and social benefit.
•
IHOP_2002 research will benefit other warm season warning and prediction
problems
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Goals of IHOP_2002
• Improved understanding and prediction of
warm season rainfall (0 –12 h forecast)
• Improved characterization of the time varying
3-D distribution of water vapor
• Four overlapping research components
–
–
–
–
Convective initiation
Quantitative precipitation forecasting
Atmospheric Boundary Layer
Instrumentation (optimal mix)
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Isentropic Airflow and Sounding
Domain
Isentropic streamlines (37 C)
for 2330 UTC
4 May 1961. The dashed lines
are isobars at 100 hPa
intervals
(from Carlson and Ludlam
1968)
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
IHOP Summary: 13 May to 25 June
• >200 Technical participants from France, the US, Germany and
Canada
• ~2500 additional soundings
• > 50 instrument platforms, 6 aircraft, 45 IOPs
• 268 h of airborne water vapor lidar measurements
• 76 h of airborne satellite evaluation measurements (S-HIS and
NAST)
• Dedicated GOES-11 data
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Convective Initiation – Expected Outcomes
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies
Expected Outcomes
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
QPF – Expected Outcomes
IHOP Research
Forecast Models
(courtesy of
Steve Koch,
NOAA/FSL)
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)
Expected Outcomes
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)
Expected Outcomes
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Some Pleasant Surprises
• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Some Pleasant Surprises
• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
One Example of Several Pleasant
Instrumentation Surprises --- Refractivity
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Some Pleasant Surprises
Use of Data Set for Diverse and
Unexpected Applications
U wind
for LLJ
anomaly
from the
diurnal mean
Obs
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Climate
Model
Atmospheric Technology Division
CAM3 Diurnal Composite (SGP, IHOP period)
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Some Successes Over the Past Year
• Rapid movement toward collaborative work,
sometimes stretching well beyond the
expected boundaries
• Rapid movement toward a mix of case studies
and climatologies
• Healthy mix of observations and modeling
work
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Will IHOP_2002 be considered a
success?
• Publications are one measure of
success
– Some refereed publications are starting to
appear
– Strong showing in conference literature
– Special issue in Monthly Weather Review
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Will IHOP_2002 be considered a
success?
• Impact on operational forecasting will be
another measure utilized
– Prediction #1 – Radar refractivity will become
operational in large part due to IHOP_2002
– Operational interest and eventual operational impact
of reference radiosonde results
– Prediction #2 – Strong (possibly under appreciated)
impact on operations through new conceptual model
and increased knowledge of how to model convection
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Impact on operational forecasting will
be another measure utilized
• Potential to contribute to big picture
questions facing NWP
– Increase and improve utilization of satellite data
sets over land
– Improved treatment of land surface processes
– Improved assimilation of water (cloud, vapor and
precipitation)
• Propose a meeting Thursday at lunch to discuss the long
awaited assimilation workshop
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Impact on operational forecasting will
be another measure utilized
Email Tammy Weckwerth if you have ideas
on other contributions of IHOP_2002
to prediction of warm season convection
Appreciate thoughts from PIs on how
IHOP_2002 will address the other two
big picture issues and how transfers to
operations will occur
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Prospective on Future Experiments
• IHOP_2002
– Regional-scale meridional gradient in mixing ratio, soil
moisture and vegetation
– High CAPE but strong CIN (the original conditionally unstable
environment)
– “Relatively” low impact of transient synoptic disturbances
– Strong terrain impact to the west of the experimental domain
– Large systems are nocturnal
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Prospective on Future Experiments
• CSIP
– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation
– Lower CAPE but less CIN
– Stronger impact of transient synoptic disturbances
– Modest terrain impacts within the experimental domain
– Lack of “continental” propagation of large convective systems
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
Prospective on Future Experiments
• German QPF experiment
– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and
vegetation
– Lower CAPE but less CIN
– Large terrain impacts within the experimental domain so
that terrain may control convective systems
– Strong impact of transient synoptic disturbances
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Technology Division
THORPEX
The THORPEX slides on the European
flood are courtesy of Melvyn Shapiro,
Co-chair, THORPEX International
Science Steering Committee
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
1st Example: Central European Floods
Prague
August 2002
The Storm
France
Italy
Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002
Dresden Germany
Central European Floods
1 Aug.
Cyclogenesis off Japan
11 Aug.
Japan
Courtesy of Shapiro and Thorpe
Austria
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Flood
2nd Example: Minnesota Flood: 911 June 2002
Moderate drought
on 1 June
Widespread
rainfall in excess
of 5 inches.
Flood with >$340
million in federal
disaster aid.
80% of homes
and businesses
damaged in
Roseau, MN
Locally most significant
flood on record.
Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002
Wisc. flood, previous
wave packet ?
Convection along Mei-Yu Front
1st Downstream Cyclogenesis
2nd Downstream
cyclogenesis
Mn flood
from frontal
overrunning
Atmospheric Technology Division
Thank for your attention
and
for your hard work on IHOP_2002
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004