Transcript Concurrent B Natural Gas Conditions Facing New England

NECPUC SYMPOSIUM
Concurrent B
Natural Gas Conditions Facing
New England
Mark R. Babula
ISO New England Inc.
Supervisor - Power Supply & Reliability
June 17, 2002
Changing Landscapes
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In the very near future, the majority of New England’s
electric generating fleet will be fueled by a single fuel
source - natural gas
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January 2001 - ISO-NE publishes its Phase I Gas Study
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Significant feedback from natural gas sector initiates a
need to look further at gas infrastructure proposals
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February 2002 - ISO-NE publishes its Phase II Gas Study
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ISO New England Inc.
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What the ISO Gas Studies Were
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An assessment of New England’s existing and future
natural gas pipeline infrastructure (deliverability)
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An assessment of electric and gas-side contingencies
that may impact the operation of merchant generation
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Additional assessments of:
– Pipeline operations under restricted conditions
– Distrigas LNG
– System restoration of electric power grid
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ISO New England Inc.
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What the ISO Gas Studies Were Not
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Not an assessment of natural gas supply & storage
Not an assessment of natural gas commodity or
transportation prices
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Not an assessment of natural gas prices on New
England’s Electric Energy Clearing Prices (ECPs)
Not an assessment of LDC operations/contracting issues
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Not an assessment of electric system resource adequacy
or a fuel mix study
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ISO New England Inc.
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ISO-NE Gas Study Findings
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Gas-fired generation in New England will soar from 16% in
1999 to over 50% by 2004 (high % w/attrition)
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Insufficient gas pipeline delivery capacity to satisfy the winter
peak day coincident demand from both LDCs and the electric
power generation sector
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LDC’s will always be served first due to contracting of primary
firm transportation rights
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Deliveries to the electric generation sector is subordinated due
to contracting of secondary non-firm transportation rights
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ISO New England Inc.
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ISO-NE Gas Study Findings
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One man’s delivery shortfall is another man’s fuel
procurement strategy: the so-called “generation-at-risk”
– Winter 2002/03 peak day = 3,100 MW (Reference Case)
– Winter 2002/03 peak day = 3,950 MW (High Case)
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New England has no summer season gas deliverability
issues (except for maintenance?)
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Improved supplies from Maritime Canada will help
pipeline companies respond to gas-side contingencies
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ISO New England Inc.
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ISO-NE Gas Studies Findings
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Increased vaporization capability at Distrigas LNG is targeted
for the new Sithe New Mystic plant - Distrigas availability
becomes vital until the Boston/NEMA transmission upgrades
materialize
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Additional fuel oil volumes of up to 25% of the region’s daily
delivery capabilities would be required to meet merchant
generators’ backup fuel requirements in the winter
(sustainability issues)
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ISO New England Inc.
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ISO-NE Gas Study - System Restoration
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NEPOOL System Restoration Working Group Question:
“What is the impact on New England’s natural gas
infrastructure upon partial or full collapse of the bulk electric
power grid?”
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Assess impacts on gas-side operations (similar to Y2K)
– Compressor stations: gas-fired versus electrical drives
– Battery backup capabilities on critical equipment &
sustainability issues
– Revised system restoration procedures/plan and
address black start capability issues
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ISO New England Inc.
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ISO-NE Gas Study Recommendations
ISO-NE Should:
– Identify merchant fuel transportation contracts
– Safeguard choices for designation of operating reserves
– Know which generators have on-site compression
– Understand back-up fuel capabilities and investigate ability
to “switch on the fly”
– Gain access to the gas pipelines’ electronic bulletin boards
for real-time operational data on gas system dynamics
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ISO New England Inc.
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Expanding Horizons - New York Gas Study
Spring 2001 - NYSERDA & NYISO joint venture project to
evaluate the operation and interaction of gas & electric
systems in New York state - 4 Study Objectives
– Objective 1: Better understanding of the potential use of gas for
power generation and the pipelines’ ability to deliver
– Objective 2: Develop a model of pipelines serving Northeast &
NY to determine lower/upper bounds of gas delivery capability
– Objective 3: Examine the operation of the gas & electric systems
under various contingencies
– Objective 4: Technology transfer
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ISO New England Inc.
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Expanding Horizons - New York Gas Study
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NY Gas Study Technical Evaluation Panel Members:
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Empire State Development
The Energy Association of New York State
New York Gas Group
NY Independent System Operator
NY State Dept of: Environmental Conservation, Public Service,
Transportation & NYSERDA
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Chosen Vendor = Charles River Associates
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Project completion date - Fall 2002
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ISO New England Inc.
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Expanding Horizons - Multi-Regional
Gas Study
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Multi-Regional Northeast Gas Study:
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Encompassing the control areas of NE, NY, PJM & IMO
Steering Committee: ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, IMO, NERC/NPCC
IMO = Project Manager
RFP issued in Spring 2002
Vendor evaluation/selection by Steering Committee
Phase I - steady-state modeling of 4 regions
Phase II - multi-area contingency analysis & deliverables
Project completion date - Summer 2003
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ISO New England Inc.
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Back to Home - Let’s Address the Issues
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New England Gas Association’s Advisory Committee on
Power Generation
– A new liaison to the electric sector
– Committee membership represents companies providing the
upstream transportation for nearly 100% of the natural gas
consumed within New England
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ISO-NE is working with the NEGA ADCOM to attain:
– Greater mutual education and understanding of both the
electric and gas industries
– Increased communications
– Reliable and efficient operation of the regional energy system
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ISO New England Inc.
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ISO New England Inc.
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