Transcript Bounding_Scenarios.ppt

Act 61 Increased Investment and Savings
Scenarios
Bounding Scenarios
December 26, 2005
December 26 Bounding Scenarios
• The following tables present estimates of increased savings that would be associated
with five different scenarios for increased investment in energy efficiency through the
Energy Efficiency Utility mechanism, as supported by the statewide Energy Efficiency
Charge.
• Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 are the two scenarios previously developed and presented
at the December 1, 2005, Act 61 Workshop, and are provided here for reference.
• Scenarios 3, 4, and 5 are new “bounding” scenarios that reflect EVT’s understanding
of the definitions of three extreme cases that parties to the current ACT 61 energy
efficiency proceedings have requested - to inform their recommendations to the PSB
(due January 6) for the final three scenarios that would be analyzed more closely.
• All these estimates should be taken as highly preliminary. It should also be noted that
while these estimates include expenditures and services of other parties, including the
DPS, EEU Contract Administrator, EEU Fiscal Agent, and Burlington Electric
Department, none of these parties have approved these estimates.
Scenario 1
This scenario, as presented at 12/1/05 Act 61 workshop, moderately ramps up
current strategies and services without current budget constraints.
Investment (Million $)
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Budget
$16.7
$17.6
$18.2
$52.5
Scenario 1 Increment
$1.4
$3.3
$5.5
$10.1
$18.0
$20.9
$23.7
$62.6
Scenario 1 Total
% Increase
Savings (GWh)
8%
19%
30%
19%
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Goal
Scenario 1 Increment
Scenario 1 Total
% Increase
9%
61
71
81
213
6
12
26
44
67
83
107
258
17%
33%
21%
All values are preliminary estimates for statewide EEU costs and savings
Scenario 2
This scenario, as presented at 12/1/05 Act 61 workshop, aggressively ramps up
strategies and services within current policy guidance to approximately twice the
current budget in 2008.
Investment (Million $)
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Budget
$16.7
$17.6
$18.2
$52.5
Scenario 2 Increment
$3.4
$8.8
$17.2
$29.5
$20.1
$26.5
$35.4
$82.0
Scenario 2 Total
% Increase
21%
50%
95%
56%
Savings (GWh)
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Goal
61
71
81
213
Scenario 2 Increment
13
34
75
122
Scenario 2 Total
74
105
156
335
% Increase
21%
48%
93%
57%
All values are preliminary estimates for statewide EEU costs and savings
Scenario 3
This “bounding” scenario, re-allocates the currently planned EEU budget to
maximize cost-effective annual incremental electricity savings, unconstrained by
equity or any other current statutory or regulatory policy objectives.
Investment (Million $)
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Budget
$16.7
$17.6
$18.2
$52.5
Scenario 3 Increment
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$16.7
$17.6
$18.2
$52.5
Scenario 3 Total
% Increase
Savings (GWh)
0%
0%
0%
0%
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Goal
61
71
81
213
Scenario 3 Increment
17
15
14
46
Scenario 3 Total
78
86
95
259
% Increase
28%
20%
17%
21%
All values are preliminary estimates for statewide EEU costs and savings
Scenario 4
This “bounding” scenario assumes a base of currently planned strategies and
services with current funding – plus as much additional cost-effective investment
over next 3 years as possible without policy constraints (maximum achievable
potential from the DPS 2002 potential study).
Investment (Million $)
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Budget
$16.7
$17.6
$18.2
$52.5
Scenario 4 Increment
$18.8
$53.7
$74.6
$147.1
Scenario 4 Total
$35.5
$71.3
$92.8
$199.6
% Increase
113%
305%
410%
280%
Savings (GWh)
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Goal
61
71
81
213
Scenario 4 Increment
36
105
147
288
Scenario 4 Total
97
176
228
501
% Increase
59%
148%
181%
135%
All values are preliminary estimates for statewide EEU costs and savings
Scenario 5
This “bounding” scenario is defined by ramping up to three times current EEU
investment in 2008, 2/3 of which would be under existing policy guidance and 1/3 of
which would maximize annual incremental electricity savings, unconstrained by
equity or any other current statutory or regulatory policy objectives.
Investment (Million $)
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Budget
$16.7
$17.6
$18.2
$52.5
Scenario 5 Increment
$3.4
$13.9
$34.3
$51.6
$20.1
$31.5
$52.5
$104.1
Scenario 5 Total
% Increase
21%
79%
188%
98%
Savings (GWh)
2006
2007
2008
TOTAL
Current EEU Goal
61
71
81
213
Scenario 5 Increment
13
48
123
184
Scenario 5 Total
74
119
204
397
% Increase
21%
67%
152%
86%
All values are preliminary estimates for statewide EEU costs and savings