Transcript Etherton
HFIP Regional Ensemble Call
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16 September 2011
1800 UTC
HFIP Regional Ensemble Metrics
Tools for measuring overall NWP improvement, forecast skill of HFIP
regional ensemble output.
Accuracy of ensemble mean track
Accuracy of ensemble mean intensity
Correlation of ensemble track spread to ensemble mean track error
Correlation of ensemble intensity spread to ensemble mean
intensity error
Reliability of probabilistic intensity forecasts (Talagrand)?
Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS) for intensity forecasts?
Area under the ROC curve for intensity forecasts?
Structure (Veren et. al.)?
HFIP Regional Ensemble Metrics
Tools for measuring goodness of ensemble for use in data
assimilation.
Ratio of ensemble variance to ensemble forecast error
variance (how big is alpha, re: need for inflation?)
Size of radius of influence (is it 2-3x the forecast error
scales?)
Estimate sampling error (how to do this?)
Tools for measuring impact on forecasters from HFIP regional
ensemble output.
Number of mentions in NHC discussions