Transcript Etherton

HFIP Regional Ensemble Call
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Passcode = 2370326#
16 September 2011
1800 UTC
HFIP Regional Ensemble Metrics
Tools for measuring overall NWP improvement, forecast skill of HFIP
regional ensemble output.
 Accuracy of ensemble mean track
 Accuracy of ensemble mean intensity
 Correlation of ensemble track spread to ensemble mean track error
 Correlation of ensemble intensity spread to ensemble mean
intensity error
 Reliability of probabilistic intensity forecasts (Talagrand)?
 Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS) for intensity forecasts?
 Area under the ROC curve for intensity forecasts?
 Structure (Veren et. al.)?
HFIP Regional Ensemble Metrics
Tools for measuring goodness of ensemble for use in data
assimilation.
 Ratio of ensemble variance to ensemble forecast error
variance (how big is alpha, re: need for inflation?)
 Size of radius of influence (is it 2-3x the forecast error
scales?)
 Estimate sampling error (how to do this?)
Tools for measuring impact on forecasters from HFIP regional
ensemble output.
 Number of mentions in NHC discussions