Transcript Jane Ellis

CDM Portfolio update
Jane Ellis (OECD)
AIXG seminar, 21 March 2005
OECD
Annex I Expert Group
Outline
• Institutional developments
• Update on proposed CDM project
activities
• Status of proposed CDM project activities
• Funding for CDM/JI
• Common sticking points
OECD
Annex I Expert Group
Institutional developments
• Growth in Designated National Authorities continuing
– 75 DNAs established to date (59 in Non-Annex I Parties, 16 in
Annex I Parties/EC)
• More baseline/monitoring methodologies approved:
– 21 EB-approved methodologies in highly diverse areas
– 2 “consolidated” methods: renewable electricity, landfills
– 14 small-scale methodologies
• … and lots more in the pipeline:
– 19 new submissions, 9 submissions not yet examined, 5 in
“feedback loop”, a few awaiting input from MP or others
• “Unilateral” projects eligible to generate CERs
OECD
Annex I Expert Group
Proposed CDM project activities
70
- Data based on 284
Electricity
60
Landfill
gas
Mt/year
50
proposed projects
in 51 countries (up
from 201 in Nov 04)
40
F-gas and
N2O
30
20
Other
10
0
Sep-03
OECD
Dec-03
Feb-04
May-04
Sep-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Annex I Expert Group
-Expected mitigation
69.7 Mt CO2-eq/y
in 2008-2012 and
119Mt pre-2008
-Does not include
projects withdrawn
Rapidly changing portfolio…
•Portfolio (incl. proposed projects) dominated
by projects reducing high-GWP waste gases
• Some of these projects are very large
(1-10 million credits/year)
• Declining importance of
renewables
(21%)
Methane
reduction Renewable
•Energy eff.
electricity
small
generation
F-gas
reduction
• Sinks 4%
• Small CCS
project
Mar 05, 70 Mt/y
Feb 04, 27 Mt/y
OECD
Annex I Expert Group
Geographical spread uneven
Other Latin
America
26%
China
7%
India
16%
Brazil
12%
Europe
1%
Middle East
0%
Africa
7%
OECD
Korea
17%
Other Asia
14%
•Early dominance by L. America, then
Asia
• Africa (7%) and AOSIS (3%) small
• Handful of countries dominate
proposed CDM portfolio:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Korea, 17% of credits (2 projects)
India, 16% of credits (43 projects)
Brazil, 12% of credits (38 projects)
Mexico, 12% of credits (21 projects)
China, 7% of credits (13 projects)
Indonesia, 5% of credits (12 projects)
• These countries also received half of
FDI flows in 2002
Annex I Expert Group
Status of proposed CDM projects
• 4 CDM projects registered
– (1 landfill gas, 1 small hydro, 2 HFC23 reduction)
• 3 further requests for registration under review
• 91 projects requesting validation could generate 13.5 Mt
CO2-eq/y in 2008-2012
• 53 more projects have submitted their baseline
methodology to CDM EB
• Approved methods could generate a further 13.5 Mt CO2eq/y in 2008-2012 (when applied to projects that have not
yet requested validation)
OECD
Annex I Expert Group
Funding available for CDM/JI
• US$1.7bn available from several different sources, e.g.:
– private, national and international carbon funds,
– national JI/CDM programmes,
– other government programmes
• …mainly public sector, focused on buying credits (rather
than funding projects), not all disbursed yet
• Does not include investment needed to implement actual
projects
• Total investment much larger …. but difficult to quantify
• World Bank largest player in credit market: >$850m
OECD
Annex I Expert Group
Common sticking points
• Low C price => limited push for CO2 reducing projects
• Transaction costs: very variable, but significant, and
reduce interest in “smaller” (<50,000 CER/year) projects
• No market signal post-2012
• Lead-time for project development much lower for
“brownfield projects”
• Additionality: difficult to put into practice
• Methodology approval can be time-consuming (3 months
at best, but can be 6-9 months or longer)
OECD
Annex I Expert Group