Transcript Andy Deacon
National Adaptation Strategies - UK 21 March 2005 Andy Deacon Global Atmosphere Division Outline • What is needed? Building adaptive capacity Tools and understanding Delivering Adaptation Action Experience of adaptation in practice • Next Steps UKCIP toolkit Guidance • Risk and uncertainty in decision making: “Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making” • Costing the impacts of climate change • Handling uncertainty in climate scenarios Scenarios • UKCIP02 climate change scenarios • Socio-economic scenarios Web-based tools (in development) • Adaptation Wizard: How to use all UKCIP resources in planning for adaptation • Adaptation case studies: Examples of adaptation being implemented in the UK Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty & decisionmaking (UKCIP 2003) Main drivers behind decision Criteria for Stage 5 – legislation, risk attitude, thresholds Is climate change a risk to project, programme, agency,etc ? Tiered risk assessment – climate and nonclimate factors Bring info together Final checks Evaluate against Stage 2 criteria No-regret, low-regret, win-win options Flexible options Delay/Do nothing? UKCIP Adaptation Wizard Climate Change Proofing • Climate change proofing within Defra • Risk-based & identifies priorities for early action : • Long-term investment and infrastructure decisions • Long-term policies and regulation • Contingency planning • Win-wins • Evidence base • Stakeholders • Work within other government Departments What is needed (1): Adaptation Policy Framework Purpose : Set objectives and measure progress • Provide structure • for policies and measures • for different actors (regional, local) • Communication • Longer term view What is needed (2): Better understanding at regional scale • Regional research in the UK, 2004–06 • To inform regional decision-making and help target effective adaptation responses • Six priority topics, identified by stakeholders: • Planning, land-use and the built environment • Business • Water • Countryside and the rural economy • Quantifying the costs • Guidelines for adaptation strategies What is needed (3): Guidelines for adaptation • Project underway to explore what adaptation means in practice to date • Two tasks: • inventory of adaptation options and strategies at different scales in the UK, from individual companies, to sectoral responses • assessment of • (a) why these options and strategies were formulated, and • (b) how they relate to other options and strategies Next Steps • Adaptation in practice project report • UKCIP Integration report • Synthesis report on impacts of climate on Central Government Departments • Work on indicators and targets for adaptation • Adaptation Policy Framework - before end 2005