Transcript CHEMICAL_CLIMATOLOGY_STUDIES.pptx

CHEMICAL CLIMATOLOGY STUDIES:
CO2, CH4, SO2, PM2.5, SO4, …
• Observed Changes in Greenhouse Gases
• Maryland Healthy Air Act and Observed
Changes in Air Quality
Konstantin K. Vinnikov & Russell R. Dickerson (AOSC/UMD),
Nickolay A. Krotkov (GSFC/NASA) , ...
MDE/UMD Quarterly Meeting, November 12, 2013
1995-2012 TREND
19.46 ppm/10yr
19.68 ppm/10yr
19.31 ppm/10yr
19.57 ppm/10yr
19.07 ppm/10yr
19.12 ppm/10yr
18.78 ppm/10yr
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1995-2012 TREND=18.78 ppm/10yr
SOUTH POLE,
ANTARCTICA.
89.98oS, 24.80oW,
2810m
Data are
considered
“BACKGROUND”.
Data provided by:
Kirk Thoning,
Earth System
Research
Laboratory, NOAA
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THESE USA CO2 HOURLY RECORDS ARE OBTAINED FROM EPA AQS DATA ARCHIVE
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MEAN TREND
1995-2012
14.06 ppm/10yr
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GLOBAL MONITORING OF CH4 BY NOAA: HOURLY RECORDS
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THESE ARE FIVE THE LONGEST
HOURLY METHANE RECORDS IN EPA
DATA ARCHIVE. ONLY THREE OF
THEM ARE VALID.
ALL OTHER RECORDS ARE VERY
SHORT.
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Conclusion:
•NOAA monitors global changes of main greenhouse gases.
•Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide and Methane near land
surface display strong diurnal and seasonal cycles. Monitoring
of these gases organized by NOAA is not sufficient to control
regional sources and sinks of these gases.
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MARYLAND, HOURLY TIME SERIES OF SO2 EMISSION
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TREND COMPONENTS OF ENERGY GENERATED AND SO2 EMITTED
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CHANGE OF SURFACE SO2 IN RESPONSE TO HEALTHY AIR ACT.
TIME SERIES OF HOURLY SO2 CONCENTRATION OBSERVED AT MD/DC AQS
Observed AQS data
display noticeable
decrease of SO2
concentrations after
2010.
Let us compare seasonal/
diurnal patterns of SO2 for
two periods 2006-2008
and 2010-2012, before
and after Healthy Air Act
X-time.
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SEASONAL/DIURNAL VARIATIONS SO2 OBSERVED AT THREE MD AQS
BEFORE (2006-08) AND AFTER (2010-12) MARYLAND HEALTHY AIR ACT X-TIME
Are these changes really caused by the Healthy Air Act?
Are they caused by change power plants SO2 emissions in MD?
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SATELLITE (OMI) OBSERVED DECREASE OF COLUMN MEAN SO2 CONTENT
AT MARYLAND BEFORE AND AFTER 2010
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LAG-CORRELATION FUNCTIONS OF RANDOM COMPONENT IN TEMPORAL VARIATIONS SO2
CONCENTRATIONS AND DECAY TIMES OF SO2 ANOMALIES
R(τ) - is empirical estimate of Lag-correlation function for different Lags, τ.
R(τ) ≈ exp(-|τ|/To) - is approximation of Lag-correlation function.
To – Decay Time - is estimated from least square condition: Σ(ln(R(τ))-|τ|/To)2=min.
To – Estimated Decay Time (or - Life Time of temporal perturbations, or – Scale of
temporal variability) for our variables is equal to about few hours.
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Seasonal-Diurnal Cycles of PM2.5 Particles (μg/m3) during 2010-2012
Estimates of R(τ) - Lag-Correlation Functions of PM2.5
R(  0)  1;
R(  0)  (1   ) e| |/ T .
η – fraction of white noise
Τ - Lag
T - Decay time, or Scale
MEAN,
μg/m3
Rockville
11.1
Beltsville
11.9
Oldtown
12.8
Fairhill
10.9
Hagerstown
11.7
* means pure approximation
STD,
μg/m3
6.7
8.0
7.6
7.1
7.6
White Noise,
%
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29*
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8
14
QNTL(95%)
μg/m3
25
25
27
26
27
QNTL(99%)
μg/m3
34
34
37
35
37
QNTL(99.9%)
μg/m3
46
48
53
46
50
SCALE
T, hour
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13*
18
18
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1. Diurnal Cycle in PM2.5
is weak and can be
neglected.
2. Decay Time of PM2.5
anomalies is 18-20 hr
which is ~4 times larger
compared to SO2. This
means that changes in
PM2.5 can be partly
imported to MD from
neighboring States.
3. Five MD and one DC
stations display
significant systematic
decrease observed
PM2.5 concentration in
2010-12 compared to
2006-08. This decrease
is the largest during the
warm months of a year.
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Decrease of SULFATE (SO4) in atmospheric aerosol PM2.5 observed in MD
Frostburg, MD and
Washington, DC stations
monitor content of
Sulfate in aerosol
particles smaller than
2.5 μm.
Beltsville, MD and
Blackwater NWR, MD
observed total amount
of Sulfate in
atmospheric aerosol
particles using Teflon
and Nylon filters.
We see analogous
decrease of Sulfate
concentration from
2006-08 to 2010-12 in
data of both pairs of
these stations.
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TEMPORAL VARIATION OF MD SURFACE OBSERVED OPTICAL DEPTH tau500
AERONET Project Observed decrease of Atmospheric Optical Depth tau500 in Maryland
from 2006-8 to 2010-12 is consistent with observed decrease of surface concentration
of PM2.5 particles.
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CONCLUSIONS:
By comparing mean values of variables for 2006-08 (before MD HAA) and for 2010-12
(three year after MD HAA) we found the following:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Significant decrease of MD Power Plants SO2 Emission agreement w CEMs.
Tremendous decrease of SO2 concentration observed at MD AQS stations.
Small decrease in surface concentration of PM2.5 particles in MD.
Consistent Decrease of Optical Depth of Atmospheric Air tau500.
We estimated Decay Time of anomalies of observed variables and found:
1. Decay Time of fluctuations of Electric Energy Generated and SO2 emitted by all Power
Plants of MD together is in range 2-3 days.
ttt
2. Decay Time of SO2 anomalies at surface stations is much smaller and is in range 2-8
hours depending on season and daytime.
3. Decay Time of anomalies of PM2.5 aerosol particles is 18-20 hours.
Very short Life Time of SO2 in atmosphere permit us to attribute the most of the
“tremendous decrease of SO2 concentration observed in MD” after 2010 to the Healthy
Air Act.
Longer Life Time of atmospheric aerosols means that the observed decrease in PM2.5,
Sulfate, and Atmospheric Optical Depth in MD can be PARTLY imported from the
neighboring States.
Available but limited Medical Statistical reports show simultaneous decrease of Asthma
Hospitalization and Cardiovascular mortality in MD and neighboring States. Health
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effects of MD Healthy Air Act still should be assessed.