Transcript Presentation

Measuring the Unmeasurable
UNSC Seminar - 27 February 2012
Walter Radermacher, Chief Statistician of the EU
Measuring the unmeasurable: stretching the
methodological borderlines, changing paradigms
or simply lowering quality thresholds?
 Measuring:
– Traditional: Process or result of
determining the ratio of a physical
quantity (such as length, time,
temperature etc.) to a unit of
measurement (such as the meter,
second or degree Celsius)
– Post normal science
Walter Radermacher
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Everything can be measured ..
Est modus in rebus, sunt certi denique
fines (Horace)
 Is this really true?
 Or does it depend on the
criteria and technology
used?
 We apply seasonal
adjustment to measure
growth rate. Is this an
observation, a model or a
composite of both?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horace
Walter Radermacher
http://www.mathacadem
y.com/pr/minitext/escher
/big.asp?IMAGE=fish_a
nd_scales
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The History of the Vasa
http://ulkotours.com/blog/the-vasa-museum-stockholm/
Walter Radermacher
http://claesjohnson.blogspot.com/2009/11/vasa-ship.html
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From theoretical concept to measurable variable
Axioms and
validity,
paradigms
Creative operationalisation;
thinking the unthinkable
Breaking the
rules?
Walter Radermacher
Constraints: costs, time,
confidentiality
The limits of our
mind
Relevance
Quality in statistics: fundamental aspects
Consistency with theory
Which theory???
Quality =
Fitness for
Purpose
Political relevance
Who decides???
Walter Radermacher
Measurability
Reliability, timeliness, …???
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Recent developments / change in paradigm
 New methods and techniques
– Access to protected microdata
– Remote sensing, GIS
– ICT
 Modelling (Intra- vs. Extrapolation)
 Facts vs. Feelings
Specific
 New theories ??
purpose
Indicators
Multi-
coherent meso data
purpose
Primary data
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Opinion
Clandestine
Price without
market
Fiction
Measurable
No ‘meter’
Future
Too costly
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Re-defining what is measurable
 Where theory fails: natural stocks, prices without a
market…
 Where paradigms might change: quality of life,
happiness, wellbeing….
 Where methods might improve: illegal activities (human
trafficking, black market, money laundering)…
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Society is asking for more!
 Where do we draw the line between facts and feelings?
 Where do we draw the line between official / non-official
statistics?
 What defines the credibility of statistics?
 How far do we want to go?
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