Transcript 09. Implications adaptations and supporting policies

Implications, adaptations & policies
Based on…..
Where are we in the programme?
Projected changes to
atmospheric and oceanic
conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for economic
development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce
threats and capitalise on
opportunities
Economic development
Outline
• Revisit changes in tuna distribution
• Framework for adaptations
 Win-win adaptations
• Supporting policies
Skipjack projection
Cook Islands
~ 10%
Cook Islands
~ 15%
Source: Bell et al. 2013
Adaptation decision framework
Near-term Loss
Near-term Gain
Addresses present drivers
Addresses climate change
Long-term Loss
Lose-Lose
Long-term Gain
Lose-Win
X
X
Win-Lose

Win-Win
X


x
X
After Grafton (2010)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
La Niña
El Niño
Adaptations
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage
effort of industrial tuna fleets
Cap and trade provisions of
VDS enable all PNA
members to receive some
benefits during ENSO
Ask
events, regardless
of where
tuna are concentrated
Source of map: Lehodey et al. (1997)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Adaptations
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage
effort of industrial tuna fleets
• Allocation of vessel days is
adjusted regularly
2050
Ask
S
2100
Source: Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al. (2011)
Adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Immediate conservation
measures for tuna
• Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and
preventing overfishing of other tuna, will:
 maintain stocks at healthy levels
 make these valuable species more
resilient to climate change
Bigeye tuna
Other adaptations
• Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in
the cyclone belt
• Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent
inundation by rising sea levels and more
severe cyclones
Suggested supporting policies
Promote access agreements that are clear for all
stakeholders
Include implications of climate change in
management objectives of WCPFC
Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level
catch and effort data to improve tuna models
Develop further measures to reduce capture of
bigeye tuna by purse-seine
Develop tuna products and distribution channels
that minimise CO2 emissions
Food security
Outline
• Factors affecting availability of fish for food

Reef area, ciguatera, climate change
• Implications for food security
• Win-win adaptations
• Supporting policies
Contributions of fish to food security
Cook Islands
Rarotonga
Outer islands
25 kg
60 kg
35 kg per person per year recommended
for good nutrition
Fish needed
User
group
Population
Rarotonga
13,000
Tourists (p.a.)
120,000
Other islands
3,000
Total
Fish
consumption
Fish needed
(tonnes)
35 kg/year
455
1 kg
120
60 kg/year
180
755
Potential coastal fish production
Reef area (km2)
Sustainable yield*
Rarotonga
~22
~65 tonnes/year
Outer islands
645
>1900 tonnes/year
Location
* Based on 3 tonnes per km2 per year
Ciguatera
X
Sources of fish for Rarotonga and tourists
• Reef fish from
outer islands
• Large pelagic fish
from tuna vessels
and local fishers
Photo: Marc Taquet
Sources of fish
Effects of climate change on fish supply
Today
2035 (-2 to -5%)
2050 (-20%)
2100 (-20 to -50%)
Effects of climate change on supply
Ciguatera
• Dead coral &
seaweed surfaces
• Nutrients
• Water
temperature
From land-based activities and sewage
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Adaptations
Incentives for longline vessels to
deliver fish to Rarotonga
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Adaptations
Increase access to tuna with
anchored inshore Fish
Aggregating Devices (FADs)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Adaptations
Improve post-harvest methods
Photo: Jocelyn Carlin
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Adaptations
Sustain production of coral
reef fish
Maintaining spawning
adults will help ensure
replenishment and build
resilience of key species
Photo: Eric Clua
Adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Reduce and diversify catches
of demersal fish
Greater focus on herbivorous fish
Adaptations
• Reduce risk of ciguatera
with good reef
management
• Avoid sending poisoned fish
to Rarotonga
L-L
W-L
L-W
W-W
Improves resilience of
coral reefs
Adaptations
Manage catchment vegetation
and minimise nutrient runoff
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Adaptations
?
Develop coastal fisheries for
small pelagic species
Photo: Nathalie Behring
Adaptations
Aquaponics with Nile tilapia
Suggested supporting policies
• Include FADs as part of the national infrastructure
for food security
• Use licensing conditions to ensure delivery of fish
from longline vessels to Rarotonga
• Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to reef fish
stocks to maintain their potential for replenishment
• Promote freshwater aquaculture
• Strengthen governance of agriculture and tourist
development to safeguard coral reefs and water
quality
Livelihoods
Outline
• Trends in pearl production
• Effects of climate change
• Adaptations
Value $
The challenge
Potential impacts on pearl farming
• Poorer survival of spat due to
ocean acidification
• Reduced pearl quality because
nacre is composed of aragonite
• Effects of warmer water on nacre
quality
• Problems due to more intense
cyclones and increased
stratification (e.g. deoxygenation)
• BUT rise in sea level may improve
flushing of lagoons
Photo: Leanne Hunter
Adaptations
Use online forecasts
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/projects
• Online portal to
deliver seasonal
forecasts for the
Western Pacific
under development
• Advance warning of
potential extreme
temperature events
Adaptations
Selective breeding to resist
effects of ocean acidification
Adaptations
Improved monitoring to
identify best sites
Adaptations
Grow pearls at greater depth
for final nacre
Photo: Leanne Hunter
Suggested supporting policies
• Specify maximum oyster density and minimum
distance between farms
• Set minimum quality standards of pearls
• Invest in environmental monitoring programmes
• Seek development partners for hatchery and
selective breeding of pearl oysters
Conclusions
• Win-win adaptations are available to reduce
risks and capitalise on opportunities
• Supporting policies and investments are needed
• Integrate adaptations and policies into national
strategies and action plans for climate change