Transcript 12 Economic implications of projected changes to tuna

Economic implications of projected
changes to tuna
Presented by
Mike Batty
Authors
This presentation is based on Chapter 12 ‘Implications of
climate change for contributions by fisheries and
aquaculture to Pacific Island economies and communities’
in the book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and
Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE
Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011.
The authors of Chapter 12 are: Johann D Bell, Chris Reid,
Michael J Batty, Edward H Allison, Patrick Lehodey, Len
Rodwell, Timothy D Pickering, Robert Gillett, Johanna E
Johnson, Alistair J Hobday and Andreas Demmke
Outline
• Importance of the sector today
• Projected changes in tuna catch
• Implications for:

Government revenue

GDP

Jobs in canneries
Importance of sector today
%
%
2-3%
10-25%
6-12%
%
10-25%
%
%
1-4%
30-50%
10-25%
2-5%
%
11
2-15%
11
%
%
2010 skipjack catch from WCPO
= 1.6 million tonnes
20-25%
1999-2008
Examples
only
Government
Range
x-y% revenue
Source: Bell et al. (2011)
GDP
Projected changes in skipjack tuna
• Future distributions
of tuna are likely to
resemble those
during El Nino events
today
Skipjack tuna
Source: Lehodey et al. (1997)
Projected changes in skipjack tuna
Change in catch relative to 1980-2000
from SEAPODYM model
2000
East (15oN-20oS, 130oE-170oE)
2035
2050
2100
+35-40%
+40-45%
+25-30%
West (15oN-15oS, 170oE-150oW)
2050
2035
2050
2100
~ +10%
Negligible
~ -20%
2050
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)
Implications of altered skipjack catch
• General trends for Government revenue and GDP
West
2035
2050
Negligible
East
2100
2035
2050
2100
Implications of altered skipjack catch
• Preliminary estimates of changes in gov’t revenue
%
%
%
Based on information in Chapter 8 (p 476) and Chapter 12
• Lower estimate = 30% GR x 37% increase in A2 2035 = 11%
• Higher%
estimate = 50% GR x 37% increase in A2 2035 = 19%
• Midpoint of 11-19% increase in GR = 15%
Therefore, GR increases from midpoint value of 40% to 55%
%
11
11
%
%
30-50%
Change to Gov’t revenue
2035
2050
+15% +15-20%
Examples only
Range x-y%
2100
+10%
Source: Bell et al. (2011)
Implications of altered skipjack catch
• Preliminary estimates of changes in GDP
%
%
%
%
%
11
15-20%
11
%
%
Change to GDP
2035
2050
2100
+4%
+4%
Examples only
Range x-y%
+2%
Source: Bell et al. (2011)
Implications of altered skipjack catch
Projections of changes to gov’t
revenue and GDP for all PICTs
where the surface fishery
makes good contributions to
the economy are available in
Table 4 of SPC Policy Brief 15
Copy of front page of
Policy Brief 15 to be
added
Implications of altered skipjack catch
• Caution: These are preliminary results
• It is the trends that are important, not the
percentage increase
• As models improve, estimated changes in catch
will be more precise
Future distribution of bigeye tuna
2000
2000
2050
Change in catch relative to 1980-2000
from SEAPODYM model
East (15oN-20oS, 130oE-170oE)
2035
2050
2100
Negligible
Negligible
~-20%
West (15oN-15oS, 170oE-150oW)
2035
2050
2100
Negligible
~-10%
~-30%
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)
Implications of altered bigeye catch
• General trends for national longline fishing
and local processing opportunities
West
2035
Negligible
2050
East
2100
2035
Negligible
2050
Negligible
2100
Conclusions
• PICTs with greatest dependency on tuna
should receive additional benefits!
• PICTs in the east could be in a stronger
position to negotiate increased licence fees
from DWFNs in the surface fishery
Conclusions
• Risks occur mainly in countries where tuna
makes a relatively low contribution to
economic development (due to the large size
of their economies) but where tuna
processing provides many jobs
• Countries in the west may need to source
more fish for canning operations from outside
their EEZs
Conclusions
• Practical adaptations and policies are needed
to:
 Reduce the risk of difficulties in supplying
fish for canneries in the west (and job losses)

Harness the opportunities for increased
revenue for PICTs in the east