Transcript 7. Tuna and Climate Change

Tuna Resources &
Climate Change
By Monte Depaune
Introduction
 Tuna resources in Nauru’s exclusive economic
zone (EEZ) is a major contributor to
government revenue through bilateral licensing
 Average annual catch of tuna by foreign
licensed fishing vessels (bilateral and
multilateral) in Nauru waters is estimated at
60,000 tonnes
 License fees contribute between 25-35% of
national revenue
Outline
 Projected changes in tuna catch
 Implications for government
revenue
Projected changes in skipjack
tuna
 Future distributions of tuna
are likely to resemble
those during El Nino
events today
Skipjack tuna
Source: Lehodey et al. (1997)
Why?
Projected changes in skipjack tuna
Change in catch relative to 1980-2000
from SEAPODYM model
2000
2035
2050
2100
+25%
+20%
-1%
2050
2050
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)
Implications of altered skipjack catch
• General trends for Government revenue
Nauru
2035
2050
2100
Implications of altered skipjack catch
Projections of changes to
gov’t revenue are available
in Table 4 of SPC Policy
Brief 15
Copy of front page of
Policy Brief 15 to be
added
Implications of altered skipjack catch
• Caution: These are preliminary results
• It is the trends that are important, not the
percentage increase
• As models improve, estimated changes in
catch will be more precise
Future distribution of bigeye tuna
2000
2000
Change in catch relative to 1980-2000
from SEAPODYM
model
East (15oN-20oS, N
Nauru
2035
2050
2100
-1%
-7%
~-20%
2050
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)
Modelling for yellowfin is now
underway with support from AusAID
and GIZ
Conclusions
• Nauru should receive additional benefits!
• For example, Nauru will be in a stronger
position to negotiate increased licence fees
from DWFNs in the surface fishery
• Practical adaptations and policies are needed
to harness the opportunities for increased
revenue for Nauru