Transcript Migration mapping at the BSPS Conference.

BSPS Migration activity: the
results!
Gemma Catney and Ludi Simpson
Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research (CCSR)
University of Manchester
BSPS Annual Conference, Manchester, September 2008
Migration biographies
• “more searching explanations of population
movement than could be obtained from aggregate
data” (Rowland 2003: 390)
– Understanding perceptions, processes of migration decision
making, migration behaviour, as a complement to quantitative
studies, or as analyses in their own right
• Existing sources for migration biographies:
– UK Census-based Longitudinal Studies
– British Household Panel Study (UK Household Longitudinal
Study)
– Birth Cohort Studies
• Ours is a retrospective, quantitative longitudinal data set
The value of biographical
information for migration studies
• Ravenstein’s ‘laws’ were based on place
of birth data from 1871 and 1881 British
Censuses, and North American and
European Censuses (JRSS 1885)
• His laws were a function of the data
available.
• If other data had been to hand, would
additional laws of migration have been
suggested?
Potential additional laws of
migration
1. People tend to be either movers or
stayers all their lives
2. One child returns to its area of
upbringing
3. Leaving home determines lives
How did we do?
• There were 159 delegates registered
on Wednesday. Of this, the number of
respondents was: 110
• Meaning we have a response rate of:
69%
Some summary statistics
Sex
Average age
Male: 45
Female: 61
39
UK born
UK childhood
79
81
Foreign-born parents
Neither: 96
One: 9
Both: 3
(n=110)
Migration
Average no. internal
moves in childhood
0.51
Average no. international
moves in childhood
0.25
Average no. internal
moves in adulthood
2.34
Average no. international
moves in adulthood
1.37
Average total number of
moves
4.46
(n= 110)
• Of those who are UKborn, 28% moved
abroad once or more
in their adulthood
• Of those born outside
the UK, 90% moved
abroad once or more
in their adulthood
Proposed law 1:
People tend to be either movers or stayers all
their lives
Moves in adulthood
Itchy feet?
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
Moves in childhood
Pearson correlation: -0.155
6
7
Proposed law 1:
People tend to be either movers or stayers all
their lives
Itchy feet?
12
11
International moves
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Internal moves
Pearson correlation: -0.155
10
11
12
13
Proposed law 2:
One child returns to their area of upbringing
• Of those who had a UK childhood, only
5% made ‘local only’ moves, none of
which were an only child (however, this
excludes internal movers)
• No matching moves with parents’
birthplace(s)
Proposed law 2:
One child returns to their area of upbringing
Sib_place_description
Data
Only
Eldest
Middle
Youngest
Number of respondents
12
51
17
27
Number of moves
48
228
81
122
Average number of moves
4.0
4.5
4.8
4.5
All
107
479
0.22
Sib_place_description
Data
Only
Eldest
Middle
Youngest
Number of respondents with UK childhood
8
40
11
20
Childhood returners, remaining
1
11
3
2
Proportion
0.13
0.28
0.27
0.10
All
79
17
0.22
Proposed law 3:
Leaving home determines lives
• Most ‘significant’ move
– Most recent?
– 1st in adulthood?
– Furthest?
– Abroad?
Proposed law 3:
Leaving home determines lives
% if those whose most ‘significant’ move was:
Most
recent
1st in
adulthood
Furthest
Abroad
22.73
35.45
30.00
50.88
(n=110)
(n=110)
(n=50)
(n=57)
Of those whose most significant move was
abroad (that is, 29 respondents):
Their total moves were 143, of which 100
(70%) were international
Conclusions
• Substantive issues:
– Law 1: People tend to be either movers or
stayers all their lives
– Law 2: One child returns to their area of
upbringing
– Law 3: Leaving home determines lives
• Looking forward to future national surveys:
– UKHLS: migration histories a possibility
Acknowledgements
•
•
•
•
BSPS participants
Anne Shepherd and BSPS Council
Susan Lomax
POPLA research group members