Transcript Update on short-term migration estimation

Update on Short-term Migration Research
Jonathan Smith & Amanda Sharfman
Presentation Overview
• Context
• Progress to date
• Definition development
• Next steps
User Requirements
• Measuring increased international migration
• Understanding reasons for increase
• Uses:
– National
– Local
Current Statistical Product Set
Long-Term Migration Estimates
• Used in mid-year population estimates & projections
• Total International Migration uses many sources
– Principally International Passenger Survey (IPS) based
Estimates of Visits
• Used in Balance of Payments
• Based on IPS
• Counts visits rather than visitors
International Passenger Survey (IPS)
• Passengers surveyed as they enter/leave the UK
• Covers principal airports, sea routes and Channel Tunnel
• 250,000 face-to-face interviews
• Approximately 1% of sample are ‘long-term’ migrants
• ‘Intended Flow’ – based on migrants’ intentions at beginning
of trip
• ‘Completed Flow’ – based on migrants’ actual behaviour
when returning
Measuring migration using IPS
• Long term migration
– Migrant may not return home
– Based on intentions
• Short term migration
– Migrant will complete their stay within 12 months
– Can be based on:
• Intentions – more timely
• Completions – more accurate
Definition overview
UN definition of a short-term migrant
"A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence
for a period of at least 3 months but less than a year (12 months) except in
cases where the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday,
visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious
pilgrimage“
• Two dimensions required
- Length of stay
- Reason for visit
Definition development
• Visitors / Temporary residents / Usual residents
• Length of stay
• 0-12 months
• 1-12 months
• 3-12 months
• Reasons for visit
• Workers
UN definition reasons for visit
• Students
• ‘Other visitors’
Feedback from Feasibility Report
• UN definition
• Central Government
• Broaden to 0-12 month stays
• Specific interest in workers and UN definition
• Local Government
• Broadening reasons for visit
• Interest in broadening to include 1-12 month stays
UN definition based short-term migration in-flow
estimates, England & Wales (mid03-mid05)
‘Other visits’ in-flow estimates, England & Wales
(mid03-mid05)
Proportion of in-flow moves by reason, England
& Wales (mid03-mid05)
100%
90%
Percentage of all moves
80%
70%
business
60%
leisure
50%
study
VFR
40%
work
30%
20%
10%
0%
0-1
1-6
Length of stay (months)
6-12
Summary of proposed definitions
• UN definition
• Workers
• Students
• ‘Other visits’
• Two length of stay periods
• 1-12 months
• 3-12 months
Next steps
• Research report (October 2007)
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Proposed definitions
England & Wales flow estimates mid04 and mid05
England & Wales stock estimates mid04 and mid05
Methodology for estimating stocks
• Sub-national methodology
• Timeliness
‘Experimental
Statistics’