Transcript Fertility preferences and intentions: some results from an Italian survey

Fertility Preferences and Intentions :
Some Results from an Italian Study
Adele Menniti and Maura Misiti
CNR Irpps - Institute for Population Research and Social Policies
The Italian Study
The general aim:
to reach a better understanding of Italian
fertility through the collection of information
on women with regard to particular aspects
(the desired family size, the short-term fertility
intentions, attitudes towards postponement at
1st child, childless, out-of wedlock births)
The Italian Study
 Each year two separate, but related, interviews have been
conducted
First interview: The respondents are representative of Italian
women living in a couple and aged between 20 and 39
years, telephone survey (C.A.T.I. System), quota
sampling (3 age groups and 3 geographical divisions).
The sample size is 1500.
Re-interview on the same respondents two years later. Size
~ 950.
 The study started in 1998.
This presentation
focuses on:
consistency between the fertility intentions
referred during the 1st interview and the
subsequent behaviour
the stability over time of fertility intentions
 Data used: 2001-2002 survey and corresponding
re-interview (N= 1926)
Characteristics of respondents
Age: 22-41 (average=33)
Union duration = average 11 years
N. children 0=12%; 1=29%; 2=47%; 3+=11%
Education: low (32%), medium (55%); high (13%)
Employed women =57%; housewives =39%; open-ended
contract=86%; full timers =65%
partners are slightly lower educated and enjoy a better
occupational status
Changes occurring between 1st and 2nd
interview
few respondents changed the type of
union/partner (5%).
80% remained in the same occupational status
In the remainder, there are more women who
found work than those who lost their job.
96% of male partners remained in the same
occupational status.
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IRPPS Questions
 Two separate questions on fertility expectations:
long-term: “How many children would you like to have in total,
including those that you already have or are about to have?”
short-term: “Do you intend to have a child in the next two
years?”
 Reason of the inconsistency: “When we contact you in the
previous survey, you said that you had (not) the intention to
have a child: there have been specific reason for not realizing
your plan?”
Fertility intention and subsequent behaviour
consistent intended mothers: women who intended to have a child
within 2 years at the 1st interview and had the child or were
pregnant at the 2nd interview
inconsistent intended mothers: women who intended to have a child
and did not achieve their plan
consistent non-intended mothers women who did not intend to have a
child and accomplished their plan
inconsistent non-intended mothers women who did not intend to have
a child and had a child or were pregnant
Other two groups: respondents who answered “I don’t know” to the
question on fertility intentions (8%).
Fertility intention and subsequent behaviour
consistent intended mothers
inconsistent intended mothers
consistent non-intended mothers
inconsistent non-intended mothers
Overall consistency: 79%
%
10
17
69
4
Among the “uncertain” women, the number of those who did not have
children is higher than women who did (76% vs. 24%)
The consistent intended mothers
 Women achieving their short-term fertility intentions are:
 young respondents, with low parity and short union duration;
 respondents who are furthest from reaching the desired family
size and those whose desired family size is 2 children;
 respondents who increased/unchanged the desired family size;
 workers, teachers and clerks.
 Consistency rate exceeding 50% is not reached in any group of
women, thus confirming a rather weak relationship between the
short-term positive fertility intentions and subsequent births.
The inconsistent intended mothers
women who encounter greater difficulties in achieving the
birth they intended are
 aged >30 years, with an union duration >10ys, and with 2
children;
 respondents who have reduced their desired family size;
 employed in high-status jobs (professionals, managers
and entrepreneurs), housewives, low educated;
 respondents who had stated that their partner did not intend
to have a child in the short term.
Differences between consistent intended
mothers and inconsistent intended mothers
 The consistent intended mothers are women who have had a partner
for a short time, young, childless (or if they are already mothers have
young children), employed in medium- or low-status jobs and either
maintain or increase the desired family size.
 The inconsistent respondents are at the near-end of their reproductive
life, “weak” respondents (low educated/ housewives), women with
demanding jobs and respondents who have reduced their desired
family size .
 The desired family size is subject to change throughout the life. It is
important to take into due account this aspect when analysing data on
fertility expectations/gap between desired and realised fertility.
The inconsistent intended mothers: reasons
for not having the intended child
Health
Work
Economic
Not feeling ready
Couple
Age of the child (too young)
Age of the respondent
Satisfied
24
18
11
11
9
6
2
3
The inconsistent intended mothers.
Do they Postpone or Renounce?
 The “early postponers”: women that at the re-interview declared
they want to have a number of children higher than the one they
have had, and intended to have the next child within 2 years
(48%).
 The “late postponers” : women who at the re-interview declared
they want to reach a number of children higher than the one they
already had, but did not intend to have the next child within 2
years (24%).
 The “renouncers”: respondents who have reduced the number of
children they wanted to the level they have already reached
(28%).
The profile of the postponers and
renouncers
Early postponers Late postponers
Renoucers
-Age
30-34
20-29
35-39
-Education
high
low
-N.children
0.6
1.0
1.5
-Status
employed
housewive
-Type of Occupation teacher/clerk worker
professional/manager/entrepr.
-Union duration
low
medium
high
-Desired Family Size 2.07
2.2
1.5
-Change in the Desired unchanged
Family Size
& increase
unchanged
decreased
-Reason for
work &
couple &
economic
inconsistency
health
age of child.
Women’s age
Postponers & renouncers
For women their age, working position, the number of children already had, the
marital condition seem to be determining factors to maintain or modify their
reproductive strategy.
An higher age can definitively alter the fertility intentions of the inconsistent
intended mothers (and depressing their fertility). A younger age often involves a
postponing attitude, both in the short (for women around 35) and in the medium
term (for the younger respondents).
The time required to have the (additional) child seems to be influenced by the
number of children the women already have. Those who are not yet mothers
intend to achieve their desire for motherhood in the short term, those who already
have a child postpone the birth of the next one to better time, when the
commitment for the child already born is lightened, when they have better
economic conditions or when they have a stronger couple relationship.
Cont’ Postponers & renouncers
The women involved in jobs requiring significant commitments of
time and responsibility, and the housewives, are classified in the
sub-group of renouncers; the former might have problems of
reconciliation between work and family life, while the latter suffer
economic problems.
The respondents with medium- or low-status jobs are accounted for
among women who postpone the birth of the child, and are to be
found respectively among the “early” postponers and the “late”
postponers.
The consistent non-intended mothers
95% of respondents with negative expectations, had
no child within the 2-year. The prediction value of
the negative fertility intentions is very high.
The group shows all the characteristics of the women
who do not intend to have children in the short term:
high marital-union duration, 2 children, and having
the eldest child who already grown up.
Some conclusive comments
The Italian survey showed that the consistency between fertility
expectations and behaviour varies according to the type of
intention.
Among the non-intended mothers the consistency is high -95%and in line with the results obtained from other studies. The
motivations inducing the women to state that they do not want
children are stronger than those leading them to declare that
they want children. The result for the women who had
expressed positive fertility intentions is less comforting, since
many of them do not achieve their expectations.
Some conclusive comments
In our study, a relevant decision we adopted concerned the time interval to be
considered in the short-term fertility expectations. Our analysis highlights that
the majority of the inconsistent intended mothers did not renounce the idea of
having an (additional) child. This finding emphasizes the relevance in studies
on fertility expectations of the timing for the birth of the intended child.
The level of inconsistency of the intended mothers may have been influenced by
the contingent/specific causes (the worsening of the economic situation, the
lack of effective family policies).
The drop-out rate, which is higher for women who are young and with low parity,
may have contributed to raising the percentage of inconsistent intended
mothers.
The Desired Family Size Changes
 The desired family size is the result of a range of interlinked factors and
respond to both external conditioning, social pressure and to personal
conditions and prerogatives.
 Our study shows that women who want 3 or more children are the ones
who most often change their wishes; this aspect, together with the fact that
the 2-child family increasingly corresponds to the aspirations of Italian
women, makes a significant rise in families with more than 2 children
unlikely in the future.