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T.M. Maleva
O.V. Sinyavskaya
Is it possible to raise
fertility level in Russia?
Results of new empirical studies
“Family in the Stream of Changes:
Demographic Challenges to Social Policy”
International conference
Moscow, November 28-29,
1
How to overcome the shortage of demographic data?
Surveys of households as
a source of demographic, economic and social behavior data
Survey
«Parents and children, men and women in families and society» (Russian GGS)
Part of the Generations & Gender International Program (GGP)
First wave
Financed by
RF PF, MPIDR, IISP
Second wave
2004
Panel
2007
11,261
7,880
11,111
Financed by
RF PF, UNFPA, Sberbank
Mid 2007
Mid 2004
1 respondent = 1 household
Representative of the Russian Federation
More than 2000 variables with info on respondent, his/her partner,
parents, children and household members
2
Births within the last three years
based on the number of children in a family
Number of children in a
family
3 years ago
Gave birth within last
3 years
Did not give birth
within last 3 years
Total
number
percent
number
percent
number
percent
0
256
57.8
709
27.9
965
32.3
1
147
33.2
964
37.7
1105
37.0
2
32
7.2
723
28.4
754
25.3
3
3
0.7
123
5.1
133
4.5
4 and more
5
1.1
22
0.9
27
0.9
443
100
2541
100
2984
100
Total
3
Which factors influence fertility?
Fertility within the last three years
depending on the type of settlement, percent
32
Second or
subsequent child
68
28
First child
72
30
Total
70
0
city
10
20
30
40
50
60
rural
70
80
4
Fertility within the last three years
in 5-year age groups of women, percent
100%
90%
80%
3
7
2
11
14
31
35–39
35
60%
30–34
34
40%
25–29
48
30%
20%
37
30
10%
0%
40–44
22
70%
50%
5
5
8
7
Total
First child
Second and
subsequent child
20–24
below 20
5
Woman's employment
status a year before
childbirth
Partner's employment
status
Fertility within the last three years based on respondent’s
and her partner’s employment status, percent
9
unoccupied
91
employed
31
unoccupied
69
employed
0
20
40
60
80
100
6
100%
Educational level of
women who gave
birth within the
last three years,
percent
90%
23
20
26
80%
70%
60%
36
38
34
50%
Completed
vocational
Primary
vocational
40%
18
30%
21
16
Secondary
20%
11
11
11
13
14
12
10%
0%
total
First child
No secondary
ed
3
Secondary
2
Primary
vocational
1
Completed
vocational
0
до 20
-1
No secondary
Second and subsequent child
4
Deviation from mean , times
Age-adjusted fertility
deviations in
groups of women
with various levels
of educational,
times
Higher,
Including incomplete
Higher
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
7
Actual number of children born per woman,
decile groups of household, per capita incomes
Income group
Average number of children,
per woman in a group
1 decile
1.7
2
1.6
3
1.3
4
1.3
5
1.1
6
1.1
7
1.1
8
0.9
9
0.9
10 decile
0.8
Total
1.2
8
Reproductive Intentions
Proportion of women intending to have a child depending
on the current number of children per family and
type of settlement, percent in a group
All
No children
With one
child
With two and
more children
General intentions
urban
30.2
47.0
33.3
9.8
rural
17.2
50.0
27.1
5.8
Intentions for 3 years to come
urban
29.9
56.4
30.4
4.9
rural
18.4
65.7
28.8
4.3
9
70
Intentions of women
to have a child
depending on the
current number of
children in a
family, percent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
All women
Distribution of
women intending
to have a child
depending on their
age and the
current number of
children per family
No children
One child
Two and more children
General intentions, % in a group
For 3 years, % in a group
General, % total
For 3 years, % total
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
10
3 years with no children
3 years with one and more children
General with no children
General with one and more children
Proportion of women intending to have a child
depending on the availability of a partner and
current number of children, percent per group
All
Does R has a
partner?
No children
One and more
children
general
in 3
years
general
in 3
years
general
in 3
years
No
23.1
21.6
40.6
45.9
16.1
11.6
Yes, living separately
33.8
37.9
40.5
53.4
26.7
21.4
Yes, living together
25.3
25.0
61.0
72.4
21.2
19.6
Registered marriage
22.6
21.4
68.9
77.3
20.0
18.3
11
Relative variation of actual and expected
(if overall intentions are realized) number of children
by mother’s age and educational level
Actual number of children
Expected number of children
1,4
1,4
All
1,3
1,3
1,2
1,2
Primary vocational
and lower
1,1
1
1,1
1
0,9
Secondary vocational
0,9
0,8
0,8
0,7
0,7
Higher education
0,6
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
0,6
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
12
45-49
Actual and potential number of children per woman of
different religiosity
Actual number of children
Potential number of children
2,5
2,0
Islam
1,5
Religious (other
than islam)
1,0
Irreligious
0,5
0,0
Potential number of children per woman
Actual number of children per woman
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
Woman's age, years
40-44
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Woman's age, years
13
Actual and potential average number of children per woman,
decile groups
2,0
45
40
1,8
Доля
Shareженщин,
of women
намеренных
intended to give birth
иметь детей
(Right scale)
35
1,6
1,5
30
1,4
Actual number of
Фактическое
children
число
детей
(Left scale)
25
1,2
1,2
20
1,0
Average actual
Средняя
по
number of children
фактическим
рождениям
(Left scale)
15
0,8
10
0,6
groups
8
9
8
7
9
10 дециль
Decile
6
7
5
6
4
5
3
4
2
3
1
2
1 дециль
0,4
5
0
10
Potential
number
Ожидаемое
of
children
число
детей по
общим
(Left scale)
намерениям
Average
Средняяpotential
по
number
of children
ожидаемым
рождениям
(Left scale)
14
Intention to have a child, 2004 and 2007, percent in group
100%
80%
6
8
36
61
35
60
No inteded to have a
child
60%
40%
20
58
21
58
Intended to have a
child later
20%
20
19
0%
no child
1 child and more
2004 г.
no child
1 child and more
Intended to have a
child in nearest 3
years
2007 г.
15
Ideal number of children, percent in group
100%
17
13
18
7
3 and more
children
30
80%
52
60%
61
2 children
56
91
78
40%
68
1 child
20%
27
41
21
0%
no child
7
4
1
1 child
2
2 and more
children
Want to have a child
no child
2
1
4
1 child
no child
2 and more
children
Don't want to have a child
16
Factors influencing reproductive behavior and
reproductive intention
Birth
Reproductive
intention
–/+
+
Woman’s age
+
+
Current number of children
+
+
Partner
+
+
Marriage status
+
+/–
Woman’s status in the labor market
–/+
+/–
Partner’s status in the labor market
–
+
Education
+
+
Income
0
+
Housing
+
–
Attitude towards religion
–
+
Social and psycological factors
0
+
Factor
Type of settlement
17
Legend: “+” - relevant factor (regardless of direction) “ –” - statistically insignificant “0” - no relevant data
What is to be done?
Lessons for social policy
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Russia today has the capacity to boost fertility. Assuming all respondents
desiring to have children in the future give birth to just one child, fertility
may increase from 1.2 to 1.5 children per woman in the next three years.
Apart from low income, poor housing may prove to be a barrier to increased
fertility (second and further births).
Economic fertility-boosting measures are not a cure all. Social factors are of
no less importance, even though at times they are unrelated to the growth of
economic wellbeing.
Family policy geared solely toward officially registered marriages may leave
out large populations with a certain fertility potential.
Fertility growth unaccompanied by changes in labor relations, the
introduction of flexible working schedules for women, development of childcare and educational facilities for children, may result in the fertility
potential of well-educated and employed women remaining unfulfilled or a
number of women significantly reducing time and effort in the labor market.
18
What is to be done?
Lessons for social policy
6.
7.
Society should be prepared to accommodate the fact that Islamic
populations will respond first to social fertility-boosting measures.
In order to take action, it is important to be informed. Sociologic
research is needed to answer the following questions:
Are the intentions of respondents regarding future births likely to be
fulfilled?
Which factors will boost fertility, and what are the barriers to boosting
fertility?
Which factors will produce immediate and measurable effects and which
will have “delayed” actions?
Will current trends be influenced by measures featured in the 2006 National
Program?
And finally, will social and economic factors produce an unequal effect on
population behavior today and reproductive intentions for the future?
To be continued basing on the second wave…
19