Transcript South Louisiana: Will We Adapt to Ocean Rise?

South
Louisiana:
Will We Adapt
to Ocean Rise?
Edward P. Richards
Professor of Law
LSU Law Center
[email protected]
Thesis
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Worldwide, hard choices need to made
about global warming and adaption
Ocean rise threatens the lives and
communities of hundreds of millions
The US must lead by example
Most of south La will be inundated by 2100
Are we denying global warming by our
actions in South LA?
2100
Is 2100 Realistic?
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Green house gasses have a long residence
time, so there is a 30-50 year lag
It will be decades before there are
meaningful reductions
Southern LA independent of ocean rise
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Consolidating river delta on a sinking crustal
plate
Huge lose of land due to sinking, NOT erosion
Can Coastal
Restoration Save
Us?
Coastal Elevations
What about Levees?
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Destroy the land on both sides
Cannot resist hurricanes
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Katrina did not hit NO, just brushed it
Structural issues
Feds and state will lose interest
Damage to wetlands to get the clay
Require maintenance - LA? USA?
The Dutch do not have hurricanes
Possible Future 1 - Punctuated
Catastrophe
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Southern LA and NO continue on current lines
Feds put in enough money to limit criticism and
keep projects going
Everyone says we are safe now
Region has catastrophic flood
Relative sea level continues to increase
Repeat until there is nothing left to rebuild on
Example to the World
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Same thing is happening in Bangladesh
We are trying to avoid regional war over
where the refugees will go
India says, what are you doing in LA?
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Why don't you build levees and restore our
coast?
Can the US say that is crazy and cannot work?
Possible Future 2
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Same as 1, but some local adaptation like
floating houses, but no real changes
Catastrophic storm
Population scatters, this time we restrict
development, make some land use
changes to protect the core
Buys 50 years for the rich and business
Still not a very good example
Possible Future 3 - Strategic
Relocation
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We think of south LA and NO as if it were
one of those island nations that is going to
either wash away or be relocated.
We preserve NO-Atlantis
We create cultural NO up river
How Do We Get to 3?
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Reimagine land use
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Change Incentives in Flood Insurance
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Charge mitigation against owners
??
You can get bought out before you flood
You can never rebuild
You fill in the rest - this is intergenerational
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This is what we want to work on at LSU