Transcript Group D
FORECASTING FOR GLINA ARTS Asha Gangineni Samyukta Varre Gowtham Laburam Rahul Sawant Problem statement ■ Prediction of Total enrollment of students for Fall -2016 ■ Prediction of Enrollment of students by media for Fall-2016 ■ Prediction of enrollment of Students by Courses for Fall-2016 Assumptions ■ We incremented the Data by one year, EG: Fall 2014 became Fall 2015 ■ Data is available till Spring 2015 , so we incremented the data by one year such that the prediction can be made for fall 2016 ■ No Specified Season was changed to Fall 2014 ■ Registration count <5 is not considered ■ 2D and No media Specified were not considered as data was not available for 5 seasons Approach and Technology Considered Single Exponential Smoothing: ■ Suitable when there is no trend or seasonal pattern ■ Forecast for a small period of time. Selecting the Target Element Tr Trend Line For Months ■ R^2 determines the strength of relationship( values are between 0 and 1) ■ Closer to 1 then there is a good relationship between the factors that we are comparing. Trend Line For Quarters Statistical Formulae Used Mean Absolute Error: ■ The MAE measures the average magnitude of the errors in a set of forecast. Mean Absolute Percentage Error: ■ Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is the most common measure of forecast error. ■ The MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) measures the size of the error in percentage terms Mean Square Error: ■ The Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a measure of how close a fitted line is to data points Statistical Formulae Used ■ Forecasting Exponential Smoothing Ft+1 = α At +(1- α) Ft where α = Smoothing Factor At = Last Actual value Ft = Last Forecast Value Exponential Smoothing by seasonAdults Forecast for clay for Fall-2016 CLAY Throwing on the wheel Clay Clay Extended Access Clay Open Studio Forecast for Fiber for Fall-2016 Fiber Craft Uncorked - Dyed Silk Scarf Forecast for Glass for Fall-2016 Glass Craft Uncorked Fused Coster Glass Forecast for Graphics for Fall-2016 Graphics Emerson Family Saturday Forecast for Metals for Fall-2016 Metals Jewelry Foundation Forecast for Metals for Fall-2016 Craft Uncorked Wired Forecast for Wood Turning for Fall-2016 Wood Turning Camps Forecasting for Camps for Fall-2016 Forecasting for Camps- Fall 2016 Camps Metal Smith for kids Forecast for Child and Parent for Fall2016 Forecast for Child Camp for Fall-2016 Child camp Learning the Potter’s wheel Forecast for Clay for Fall-2016 Clay Throwing on the wheel Forecast for Wood Turning for Fall-2016 Wood turning Beginning wood turning Conclusion - Registration by Media Conclusion - Registration by Course Recommendations ■ No sufficient data , Missing links in data ■ Better forecasting could be done id data was available for more than 4 years ■ Maintain two different columns for Registration and enrollment dates for more accurate prediction ■ Provide recent data Questions ?