Transcript Chapter 5 Section 3 (Simulations)

Section 5.3
Simulations
AP Statistics
November 11, 2010
Simulation
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“The imitation of chance behavior, based
on a model that accurately reflects the
experiment under consideration, is called
simulation.”
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Simulation Steps
State the problem or describe the
experiment.
 State the assumption.
 Assign digits to present outcomes.
 Simulate many repetitions.
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Example
Toss a coin 10 times.
 What is the likelihood of a run of 3 or more
consecutive heads or tails.
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Example
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Unemployment as defined by the Treasury
Department means that someone is out of work
and is actively seeking employment.
About 27% of teenagers are unemployed.
Simulate selecting a group of 20 teens.
Repeat 10 times.
How often are more than half unemployed?
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Example
A couple plans to have children until they
have a girl or until they have 4 children.
 What is the likelihood of having a girl.
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Example
Shaquille O’Neal has a free-throw
percentage of 58% (He makes
approximate 58 free-throws for every 100
attempted)
 Simulate selecting 10 groups of 20 shots.
 How often does he miss more than half his
shots?
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Sampling
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Identify the population being sampled.
Recognize bias due to voluntary response
and other methods of sampling.
Use Table B or other appropriate method to
take a SRS from the population.
Recognize the presence of undercoverage
or nonresponse, and wording of the
question.
Use random digits to select a stratified
random sample from a population when the
strata are identified.
Experiments
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Recognize if something is an experiment or
observational study.
Recognize bias due to lurking variables
Identify factors (explanatory variables,
treatments, response variables or subjects.
Outline a design of a completely randomized
experiment.
Randomly assign subjects to groups
Recognize the placebo effect, recognize when
a double-blind experiment should be used.
Assignment
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Exercises: 5.59-5.67, odd
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