#### Chapter 5 Section 3 (Simulations)

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Transcript Chapter 5 Section 3 (Simulations)

Section 5.3
Simulations
AP Statistics
November 11, 2010
Simulation
“The imitation of chance behavior, based
on a model that accurately reflects the
experiment under consideration, is called
simulation.”
AP Statistics, Section 5.3
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Simulation Steps
State the problem or describe the
experiment.
State the assumption.
Assign digits to present outcomes.
Simulate many repetitions.
AP Statistics, Section 5.3
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Example
Toss a coin 10 times.
What is the likelihood of a run of 3 or more
consecutive heads or tails.
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Example
Unemployment as defined by the Treasury
Department means that someone is out of work
and is actively seeking employment.
About 27% of teenagers are unemployed.
Simulate selecting a group of 20 teens.
Repeat 10 times.
How often are more than half unemployed?
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Example
A couple plans to have children until they
have a girl or until they have 4 children.
What is the likelihood of having a girl.
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Example
Shaquille O’Neal has a free-throw
percentage of 58% (He makes
approximate 58 free-throws for every 100
attempted)
Simulate selecting 10 groups of 20 shots.
How often does he miss more than half his
shots?
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AP Statistics, Section 5.3
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Sampling
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Identify the population being sampled.
Recognize bias due to voluntary response
and other methods of sampling.
Use Table B or other appropriate method to
take a SRS from the population.
Recognize the presence of undercoverage
or nonresponse, and wording of the
question.
Use random digits to select a stratified
random sample from a population when the
strata are identified.
Experiments
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Recognize if something is an experiment or
observational study.
Recognize bias due to lurking variables
Identify factors (explanatory variables,
treatments, response variables or subjects.
Outline a design of a completely randomized
experiment.
Randomly assign subjects to groups
Recognize the placebo effect, recognize when
a double-blind experiment should be used.
Assignment
Exercises: 5.59-5.67, odd
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