Transcript 12654163_Electric Vehicles in New Zealand - Seminar.pptx (13.98Mb)

Electric Vehicles in New Zealand:
from Passenger to Driver?
Scott Lemon, Dr Allan Miller
New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions by sector and vehicle type in New Zealand
76
million
Tonnes of greenhouse gases
emitted by New Zealand in
2012
New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions by sector and vehicle type in New Zealand
New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions by sector and vehicle type in New Zealand
Electric Vehicles
A shortcut to a greener future or just an expensive dead end?
1
Market
2
Policy
3
Environment
Market
1.1 New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Passenger car ownership per 1000 people for OECD countries
Passenger Cars (per 1000 people)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
2.6
million
600
Luxembourg
Iceland
USA
Italy
New Zealand
Australia
Finland
Austria
Slovenia
Switzerland
Germany
Greece
Belgium
Spain
France
Norway
Netherlands
Sweden
UK
Japan
Poland
Canada
Ireland
Czech Republic
Estonia
Denmark
Slovakia
Hungary
South Korea
Israel
Mexico
Chile
Turkey
0
Country
Light passenger vehicles
registered in New Zealand
Passenger cars per 1000
people in New Zealand
th
5
Highest rate of passenger
car ownership in the OECD
1.2 New Zealand Vehicle Market
Sales of new and ex-overseas light passenger vehicles in New Zealand
New Light Passenger Vehicle Registrations (thousand)
250
New
Ex-overseas
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1.3 New Zealand Fleet Composition
Number of Registered Passenger Vehicles
Age distribution of passenger vehicles in the New Zealand fleet
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Vehicle Age (years)
13.6
years
Average age of a light
passenger vehicle in New
Zealand in 2011
1.4 Electric Vehicles in the Market
Overview of current generation electric vehicles on the market
Model
Year
Type
Body
Motor
(kW)
Battery
(kWh)
Electric Range
(km)
Efficiency
(kWh/km)
RRP
($)
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
2012
EV
5-door hatchback
47
16
100-160
0.168
(NZ) 59990
Nissan LEAF
2012
EV
5-door hatchback
80
24
115-175
0.189
(NZ) 69600
Holden Volt
2013
PHEV
5-door hatchback
111
24
50-80
0.25
(NZ) 85000
Smart Fortwo ED
2013
EV
2-door coupe
35
17.6
140
0.151
Toyota RAV4 EV
2012
EV
4-door SUV
115
35
165
0.27
(US) 49800
Tesla Model S (40kWh)
2012
EV
4-door fastback
175
40
260
0.24
(US) 59900
BMW ActiveE
2012
EV
2-door coupe
125
32
160
0.14
-
Toyota Prius PHV
2013
PHEV
5-door hatchback
60
4.4
20
0.27
(US) 32000
Fisker Karma
2012
PHEV
4-door sedan
210
20.1
80
0.40
(US) 102000
-
1.5 Cost Analysis – Running Costs
Comparison of annual yearly fuel costs for different vehicle types
Type
Fuel Consumption
(units/km)
Fuel Price (2012)
$NZD/unit
Annual Fuel Cost (2012)
$NZD
Petrol - New
0.074
2.13
1923
Petrol - Old
0.088
2.13
2286
Diesel
0.056
1.52
1038
Hybrid
0.039
2.13
1013
Electric – Peak rate
0.19
0.277
643
Electric – Off-peak rate
0.19
0.15
348
18¢
Per km for an average
petrol vehicle in NZ
8¢
Per km for an average
hybrid vehicle in NZ
4¢
Per km for an average
electric vehicle in NZ
1.6 Cost Analysis
Cumulative cost of owning a petrol, diesel, hybrid and electric vehicle from 2012
1.7 Cost Analysis – Tariffs
Cumulative cost of owning an electric vs. petrol vehicle with off-peak charging
1.8 Electric Vehicle Sales in New Zealand
Annual number of registered electric light passenger vehicles in New Zealand
No. of Registered Electric LPV in New Zealand
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011
2012
1.9 Electric Vehicle Sales in New Zealand
Annual number of registered electric light passenger vehicles in New Zealand
6000
No. of Registered Electric LPV in New Zealand
Projection
MOT
5000
NZ Target
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
15%
Of light passenger vehicles
sold in 2025 are to be EVs
(NZ target)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Country
New Zealand
Australia
Spain
Italy
Portugal
Ireland
Germany
UK
Canada
Sweden
China
Austria
France
Denmark
USA
Belgium
Japan
Netherlands
Estonia
Norway
% of Electric Vehicles in LPV Fleet
1.10 Electric Vehicle Sales Worldwide
A global comparison of electric vehicle uptake by country
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Policy and Regulation
2.1 Policy and Regulation
Breakdown of measures available to governments for stimulating EV adoption
Measures






Economic
Suasive
Sales tax
Subsidies
Bonus/malus
Scrappage
Annual tax
Fuel taxation
 Education
 Standards &
guidelines
Regulatory
 Emission targets
 Vehicle standards
Organisational
 Infrastructure
 Usage incentives
 Free parking
 HOV lane use
2.2 Economic Measures – Tax Reduction
Global overview of countries implementing tax reduction measures for EVs
Austria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
India
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
Norway
Switzerland
Portugal
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
United
Kingdom
United States
2.3 Economic Measures - Subsidies
Global overview of countries implementing direct subsidy measures for EVs
Canada
China
Finland
India
Ireland
Japan
Luxembourg
South Korea
Spain
United Kingdom
2.4 Economic Measures - Subsidies
Comparison of maximum price subsidy offered and EV uptake rate by country
Country
% EVs in
LPV Fleet
Price Offset
($USD)
Norway
0.390
20000
Estonia
0.140
24000
Netherlands
0.093
0
Japan
0.047
2700
Belgium
0.035
12250
USA
0.031
7500
Denmark
0.030
30000
France
0.026
8000
Austria
0.022
0
China
0.020
8800
Country
% EVs in
LPV Fleet
Price Offset
($USD)
Sweden
0.016
600
Canada
0.012
8650
United Kingdom
0.011
8200
Germany
0.011
0
Ireland
0.010
8000
Portugal
0.008
7000
Italy
0.007
0
Spain
0.004
9300
Australia
0.003
0
New Zealand
0.003
0
2.5 Electric Vehicle Incentives in New Zealand
Viable short-term measures for encouraging EV uptake
Short-term
(2012-2015)
Suasive/regulatory
measures
 Increase consumer
awareness about
importance of fuel
economy
 Tighten fuel economy
standards on imported
vehicles
Mid-term
(2015-2020)
Long-term
(2020-)
2.6 Electric Vehicle Incentives in New Zealand
Viable medium-term measures for encouraging EV uptake
Short-term
(2012-2015)
Mid-term
(2015-2020)
Organisational measures
 Installation of charging
stations
 Requirement for new
homes and car parks to
include provision for EVs
 Renewable energy and
smart grid developments
Long-term
(2020-)
2.7 Electric Vehicle Incentives in New Zealand
Viable long-term measures for encouraging EV uptake
Short-term
(2012-2015)
Mid-term
(2015-2020)
Long-term
(2020-)
Economic measures
 Aim to increase fleet
turnover rate and speed
the transition to a
greener transportation
system
 Scrappage schemes and
decreased taxes/vehicle
charges
Environment
2.4
tonnes
Of CO2e gas emitted by an
average passenger vehicle
in New Zealand annually
Country
USA
Australia
New Zealand
China
Russia
Mexico
Israel
Estonia
Canada
South Korea
Sweden
Germany
Chile
Finland
Greece
Luxembourg
UK
Austria
Netherlands
Ireland
Slovenia
Iceland
Turkey
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Hungary
Poland
Slovakia
Spain
Belgium
Denmark
Italy
Japan
India
France
Portugal
Average Passenger Vehicle Emissions
(gCO2e/km)
3.1 Light Passenger Vehicle GHG Emissions
Amount of GHG emitted by average light passenger vehicles around the world
250
200
150
100
50
0
74%
Renewable energy powering
the New Zealand grid in
2012
142
grams
India
Estonia
China
Australia
Israel
Poland
Greece
Czech Republic
USA
South Korea
Ireland
UK
Turkey
Mexico
Germany
Japan
Russia
Chile
Netherlands
Italy
Slovenia
Hungary
Denmark
Luxembourg
Portugal
Spain
Finland
Slovakia
Belgium
Canada
Austria
New Zealand
France
Sweden
Norway
Switzerland
Iceland
Average Grid Emissions
(gCO2e/kWh)
3.2 Average Grid GHG Emissions
Amount of GHG emitted per unit of residential electricity consumed
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Country
Of CO2e gas emitted per
kWh of electricity used by
households in New Zealand
3.3 Average Vehicle Emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions for electric and average fleet vehicles by country
85%
Reduction in average
vehicle emissions achievable
by switching to EVs in NZ
3.4 Vehicle Lifetime Emissions
Cumulative GHG emissions for electric and petrol vehicles over their lifespan
Cumulative Vehicle CO2e Emissions (kg)
35000
Average EV
30000
Average ICV
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Year of Ownership
13.1
Tonnes of CO2e produced
manufacturing an EV
6.5
Tonnes of CO2e produced
manufacturing an ICV
3.5 Emission Reduction Potential
Total greenhouse gas emission reduction based on EV market penetration
Reduction in New Zealand's Total
CO2 Emissions (%)
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
EV Market Penetration (%)
70%
80%
90%
100%
Conclusion
Market
New Zealand’s fleet is old,
inefficient and in need of
change
EVs are currently too
expensive, and the pay-back
period too long despite lower
operational costs
Policy
Tax reductions and price
subsidies are commonly used
worldwide but are too
expensive to justify in New
Zealand
The short-term focus should
be on improving fuel
economy regulations, and
educating consumers
Environment
EVs can achieve considerable
GHG emission reductions in a
green power system like New
Zealand’s
The main focus worldwide
should be increasing the use
of renewable energy and
preparing the grid so that
when the time comes for EVs
we are well-prepared
Questions?