Transcript NWSOverview.ppt

National Weather Service
Overview
Faith Borden
National Weather Service
Las Vegas
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A New Era in National Weather
Service Forecast Services
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Weather Ready Nation
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NWS Mission
• “The National Weather Service (NWS)
provides weather, hydrologic, and climate
forecasts and warnings for the United
States, its territories, adjacent water and
ocean areas, for the protection of life and
property and the enhancement of the
national economy.
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Who is the National Weather Service?
• A FEDERAL AGENCY UNDER THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
• BRANCH OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ADMINISTRATION (NOAA)
• OPERATES 122 FIELD OFFICES, PLUS SEVERAL NATIONAL
CENTERS
• ANNUAL BUDGET APPROXIMATELY $800 MILLION, OR LESS
THAN $3.00 PER U.S. CITIZEN
• ABOUT 5,000 EMPLOYEES NATIONWIDE
• THE ONLY ENTITY TO ISSUE OFFICIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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NWS Modernization History
• Early 1990s
– Hundreds of Automated Surface Observing Systems deployed
• Mid 1990s
– Number of forecast offices increase ~150%
– WSR 88D deployed
• 1999-2000
– AWIPS workstations fully deployed
• 2003
– IFPS becomes operational
• 2010-2012
– Dual Pol radar upgrades deployed
– Weather Ready Nation Unveiled
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NOAA’s National Weather
Service
• Provide climate, water,
weather forecasts and
warnings to protect life
and property and
enhance the economy
A Typical Year Brings:
– 6 Hurricanes
– 1,000 Tornadoes
– 5,000 Floods
– 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms
– Severe Winter Storms
– Drought and Large Wildfires
• 76 billion observations
– Excessive Heat Episodes
– 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries;
$14 Billion in Losses
• 1.5 million forecasts
• 50,000 warnings
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Overview of NWS Operations
Observe
Distribute
Respond &
Feedback
Products & Services
Process
Central
Local
Guidance
Offices
Feedback
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NWS Overview
Facilities
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NWS Overview
National Centers
Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center
E
N
T
National Hurricane
Center
R
A
L
C
Storm Prediction
Center
Aviation Weather
Center
Environment
al
Modeling
Center
O
P
E
R A T I
S
N
O
Ocean Prediction
Center
Climate Prediction
Center
Space Weather
Prediction Center
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NWS Overview
River Forecast Centers (RFCs)
• Issue river, reservoir and flood forecasts based on
computer models
• Provide forecast guidance to Weather Forecast
Offices (WFOs)
• Work with water managers
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NWS Overview
Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)
• Issue all Local Forecasts
and Warnings
• Build and Maintain Relationships
With Local and State Governments
• Provide Expert Advice to
Emergency Operations Centers
• Solicit Customer Feedback on Products and Services
• Conduct Community Awareness and Education Programs
• Train Volunteer Observers and Storm Spotters
• Research projects
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National Weather Service Offices
Serving Nevada
Reno
Elko
Las Vegas
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Your Las Vegas NWS Office
• Responsible for 7
counties in 3 states
– 70,000+ square miles
– Just under 2.5 million
people
• Elevation change of
almost 15,000 ft
– Death Valley @ -282 ft
– Mt. Whitney @ 14,494 ft
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STAFFING
• 10 CORE METEOROLOGISTS
• 2 HYDROMET TECHNICIANS
• 2 METEOROLOGICAL INTERN
• 3 ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS
• 1 INFO TECHNOLOGY OFFICER
• 2 SPECIALIST METEOROLOGISTS
• 1 ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANT
• 1 METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE
5-7 personnel on
duty M-F
2-3 personnel on
duty weekends
and overnight
Open 24 hours a
day, 7 days a
week, and 365
days a year!
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Short Term Desk
Public Service Desk
Long Term Desk
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Technology Old– Surface
Observations
Manual observations every hour, and
when conditions changed enough to
warrant a special observation.
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Technology New– Surface
Observations
Automated
Surface
Observation
System (ASOS)
Completely automated and takes
observations every minute (if
needed). Additionally, there are
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hundreds and hundreds of stations!
Technology Old- 57 Radar
Radar scope image – from archived film (1965)
Weather Service Radar – 1957
technology
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Technology Newer – 88D Radar
WSR-88D – Doppler
Radar
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Technology Newest –Dual Pol
Radar
Images from left to right: Reflectivity (Z), Differential
Reflectivity (ZDR), and Correlation Coefficient (CC). The
white oval shows the leading edge of the dust storm in
Phoenix, AZ, on the evening of July 5, 2011, at 6:40 pm
local time.
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Technology Old - Satellite
ESSA Imagery from
September 1, 1966:
Hurricane Faith
approximately
300 miles off Cape
Hatteras.
Lower picture of
Scandinavia in a
generally cloud-free
picture.
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Technology New - Satellite
Visible GOES satellite image
(March 10, 2008)
Infrared imagery – Hurricane Dean
(August 20, 2007)
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Technology Old– Upper Air
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Technology Newer– Upper Air
Radiosonde instrument package
Technology keeps improving
the tools
Radiosonde launch – image courtesy of NCAR/UCAR/NSF
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Technology Newest – Upper Air
Profilers: These measure
wind.
HOWEVER, upgrades can now
Provide MOISTURE
information!
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Weather Balloons
 Released twice a day, every day
 92 sites in the US; 900 worldwide
 Filled with hydrogen or helium
 Flight lasts for about 2 hours; can drift as far as 125
miles away; will rise up to 100,000 feet (20 miles)
 Instrument called a radiosonde is attached to
measure pressure, temperature, relative humidity,
wind speed and direction
 Primary source of data above the ground
 Provides valuable input for computer forecast
models, local data for meteorologists to make
forecasts and predict storms, and data for research.
 Each radiosonde contains a mailing bag with
instructions. About 20% of the 75,000 radiosondes
sent up each year in the US are found and returned.
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Technology Old –
Communications
NOAA Weather Radio was
being installed along the
coasts, but was not widely
used across the country until
the 1970s.
Teletype communications room –
Weather Bureau, Nashville, TN
Operating a
teletype circa
1965.
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Technology New –
Communications
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Where We’re Headed
Weather Ready Nation!
Data, Products, and Services to:
Greatly reduce loss of life and injury
• Enable communities to mitigate property loss
well in advance of threatening conditions
• Alert economic sectors
to environmental risks
with sufficient lead time
to limit or avoid impacts
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Forecasts & Warnings
• Based on
– Numerical Model Data
– Automated Observations
– Doppler radar
• NWS & FAA TDWR
– Remote Sensing
• Satellite Pictures
– Law Enforcement
ASOS
– Volunteers
– Media
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How a Forecast is Made
How do meteorologists make forecasts?
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How a Forecast was Made
1) Forecaster
Analyzes
past and
current
state of
atmosphere
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How a Forecast was Made (cont.)
2) Forecaster looks at forecast
guidance from several numerical
weather prediction models and
develops mental image of
forecast
.
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How a Forecast was Made (cont.)
Especially difficult in the
West because of the
influence of complex
terrain
?
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How a Forecast was Made (cont.)
Once forecaster created
mental image of
forecast…
• Typed aviation forecast
• Typed public forecast
• Typed fire weather forecast
Forecaster could spend up
to 3 hours a day typing!
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How a Forecast is Made
3) Forecaster then
creates or modifies
grids to represent
what he/she thinks
will happen.
4) Computer then
generates the words
which the forecaster
checks before
sending out.
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New Forecast Method
• Observed and computer forecast guidance
acts as base forecast
• Forecaster then adjusts gridded model
forecast
• Terrain compensating algorithms are run
to capture terrain effects
• Digital forecast database is source for
traditional forecasts, new highly
customized forecasts
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Computer Forecasts are Input Directly into
Graphical Forecast Editing Software
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Forecasters edit gridded digital data
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Gridded Forecast Database
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What Does “Gridded” Mean?
In this temperature field, the computer
stores a unique temperature value for
every 2.5 km “grid” box in the image
That means in Clark
County, there are about
3350 unique
temperature forecasts,
every hour
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Compare the Amount of Data in the
Grids, to the Zone
Each “zone” contains several hundred
temperature forecasts per hour
Each “zone” contains one 1
temperature forecast per day, e.g.
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Highs 65 to 70
Further “Old” vs. “New”
comparison
If we printed entire gridded forecast
database for Nevada, it would take up
~ 84,000 pages, which is
168 reams!
(Forecast is produced several times per
day)
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Not Restricted to Just
Temperature
• Temperature
• Dewpoint
• RH
• Wind
• Sky
• Probability of
Precipitation
• Snow amounts
• Rain amounts
• Numerous Fire Weather
Parameters
• Weather
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Data Is Available in Other Formats
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Data Is Available in Other Formats (cont.)
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FORECASTING
There are 3 basic
methods of forecasting
• Persistence
• Experience
• Computer Modeling
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PERSISTENCE:
•Not much is going to change.
•Tomorrow will be like today.
•Works great a good deal of the time
around here.
•Not so good during active weather
patterns such as wind storms during
the spring, monsoon season, and
winter storms.
EXPERIENCE:
•Forecast what was seen before to
repeat.
•This is good for 1- to 2-day forecasts.
•Works great a lot of the time.
•Problem when
something new
happens.
MODELS:
•They are better than
people past 3 days.
•Works great most of the time.
•Problem when bad data gets put in
or if something really new occurs.
NWS Suite of Warning Services
• Severe Weather Warnings
– Thunderstorm-type weather
– Winter weather
– Fire Weather
– Hurricanes
– Hydrologic
– Air quality
Key Terms
• Advisory: Just so you
know…
• Watch: Stay Alert!
• Warning: Take
Cover/Action NOW!
Custom Applications
Power of database: you are not
restricted by the products that
we give you
What specialized needs do you have?
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National Weather Service
7851 Dean Martin Drive
Las Vegas, NV 89139
(702) 263-9744
[email protected]
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