Transcript SDG&E Hourly Load Forecasting

Forecasting Hourly Loads
Ken Schiermeyer
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© 2015 San Diego Gas & Electric Company. All copyright and trademark rights reserved.
Future considerations
Inc. AAEE
Inc. Load Modifiers
Est. System Load
Hourly Forecast Process
1.
Estimate system consumption based on calendar and weather factors
2.
Include hourly load modifiers
3.
Include future AAEE savings
4.
Future considerations (e.g., battery storage, TOU period changes)
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Forecasting Hourly System Load
• Hourly loads are forecasted for 5 rate classes (Residential,
Small
Commercial, Medium Large Commercial, Agriculture & Lighting)
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Historical smart meter data
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Weather data
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Calendar Information
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Other
• Hourly loads are estimated using 24 models (for each hour of the day).
• Results are combined to create a forecasted load shape.
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Controlling for PV and EV Sales:
• EV’s and PV’s are new technologies
traditional load shapes.
in our service territory and have non-
• To account for this, the Residential
and Commercial classes are estimated
with PV sales added back and EV sales subtracted out when creating our
models.
• After we estimate our models we then subtract PV sales out and add back in
EV sales.
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2016 Hourly Rate Class Results- Non Res
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2016 Hourly Rate Class Results - Res
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Controlling for PV and EV Sales:
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Controlling for PV and EV Sales (Peak Day):
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Future considerations
Inc. AAEE
Inc. Load Modifiers
Est. System Load
Future Considerations
• Battery storage, TOU period changes and Other
• Hourly forecasting
is a flexible tool to evaluate impacts on system peak
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