Transcript Integrated climate change strategies of industrialized countries

Integrated climate change
strategies of industrialized
countries
Annual Meeting of the International Energy Workshop
EMF/IEA/IIASA
24-26 June 2003, Conference Center Laxenburg,
Austria
Dr. Katia Simeonova, Dr Harald Diaz-Bone
UNFCCC secretariat
Outline of the presentation
•
Introduction and approaches for the analysis
•
Past and future emission trends as a context for
consideration of policies and measures
•
Some indicators of policy performance
•
Overview of the policies and measures
•
A new, integrated approach to climate policy
formulation and implementation
•
Policy instruments used and major changes in policies
and measures by sector
•
Role of new technologies
2
Outline of the presentation (cont.)
•
Policy instruments used and major changes in policies
and measures by sector
•
Role of the Kyoto Protocol in shaping of domestic
policy responses
•
Criteria used for climate change policy design and
implementation
•
Institutional framework for climate change policy
•
Monitoring and evaluation of policies and measures,
and projections of emission levels
•
Conclusions
3
1. Introduction and approaches for the
analysis
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2. Past and future emission trends
Changes in aggregated GHG (excl. LUCF)
40%
ESP
30%
GRC
AUS
20%
CAN
USA
NOR BEL SVN
10%
Change of 1990 Value
AUT
JPN
NLD ITA NZL
0%
FIN EUR
CHE
SWE
FRA
-10%
GBR
-20%
DEU
CZE
-30%
SVK
-40%
POL HRV
HUN
1995/1990
2000/1990
RUS
-50%
BGR
EST
-60%
-70%
LVA
LTU
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2. Past and future emission trends:
main drivers Annex II
• The EC, Finland, France, Germany, Sweden,
Switzerland and the U.K. contributed significantly
to the interim aim of the Convention
• Main drivers: proactive climate policy (energy
efficiency, fuel switching), nuclear power,
economic slow down
• More specifically: the U.K. (fuel switch), France
(reduction of N2O from chemical industry and
nuclear), Finland (fuel shift, renewables, nuclear,
transportation strategy), Germany (unification
and promotion of renewables)
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2. Past and future emission trends:
main drivers EIT
• Emission levels in 2000 far below 1990 levels
(66% for Latvia and 23% for Czech Republic)
• Evidence of success towards decoupling of
emission growth from economic growth
• Poland: GDP 6.6 % annual growth (1995 and
1997) and 4.3 % (1998 and 1999), emissions
continue to decline
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2. Past and future emission trends:
share of emissions by sector
2000
1990
Agriculture
8%
Industrial
Processes
5%
Waste
3%
International
bunkers
2%
Energy industries
29%
Agriculture
7%
Industrial
Processes
5%
Waste
3%
International
bunkers
2%
Energy industries
32%
Transport
20%
Transport
22%
Fugitive emissions
5%
Energy use in
other sectors
12%
Energy use in
industry
16%
Energy use in
industry
14%
Fugitive
emissions
4%
Energy use in
other sectors
11%
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2. Past and future emission trends:
emission trend by sector, change
1990 to 2000
20%
C h an ge of 1990 val u e
10%
T ra n sp o rt
0%
In te rn a tio n a l b u n k e rs
E n e rg y in d u strie s
In d u stria l P ro c e sse s
-1 0 %
E n e rg y u se in o th e r se c to rs
E n e rg y u se in in d u stry
W a ste
A g ric u ltu re
-2 0 %
F u g itiv e e m issio n s
-3 0 %
-4 0 %
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
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3. Some indicators of policy performance
Relationship between emissions per capita and emission intensity of the economy between 1990
and 2000
AUS
USA
25000
CAN
22500
NZL
20000
Emissions per capita
17500
CZE
EST
15000
RUS
12500
NOR
EUR
POL
JPN
SVK
10000
BGR
SVN
HUN
CHE
7500
LTU
HRV
5000
LVA
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Emission intensity of economy
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4. Overview of the policies and measures
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Major objectives of climate change policies
Energy

Promote economically efficient energy supply and energy use

Enhance energy security and diversification of energy sources

Protect the environment

Promote energy sector reform to increase economic efficiency by introducing more private sector participation,
more competition in supply and distribution, and increasing consumer choice over energy suppliers

Promote efficient use of resources, including energy resources, through “green tax” reform

Climate change mitigation through emissions trading
Transport

Air quality management

Congestion management

Energy security
Industrial processes

Reduce gases emitted as by-products in industrial processes

Improve efficiency of industrial processes
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Improve health and safety conditions
Agriculture
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Improve environmental performance of agriculture, e.g. preventing pollution of underground waters

Promote sustainability through, for example, improved food quality, rural development, organic farming and
land-use planning
Land-use change and forestry

Protection and sustainable management of forests

Conservation of biodiversity, wildlife, soil and water

Enhance forest sink capacity through afforestation and reforestation
Waste

Reduce environmental impacts of waste management such as impacts on air, soil and underground waters

Waste minimization and recycling.
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4. Overview of the policies and measures
Box 4 Key policies and measures reported by Parties in all sectors
AUS AUT BEL BGR CAN CHE CZE DEU ESP EST
Combined heat and power
Renewable energy sources
Fuel switch (mainly to natural gas)
Energy efficiency improvements
Vehicle and fuel taxes
Integrated transport policy frameworks
Pollution prevention in industry
Landfill site gas recovery
Fertilizer and manure management
Common Agricultural Policy
Afforestation and reforestation
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
HRV HUN ITA
Combined heat and power
Renewable energy sources
Fuel switch (mainly to natural gas)
Energy efficiency improvements
Vehicle and fuel taxes
Integrated transport policy frameworks
Pollution prevention in industry
Landfill site gas recovery
Fertilizer and manure management
Common Agricultural Policy
Afforestation and reforestation
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
EC
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FIN FRA GBR GRC
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
JPN LTU LVA NLD NOR NZL POL RUS SVK SVN SWE USA
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
5. Evolution of CC policy: a new
integrated approach to climate policy
• Emphasize placed on portfolio approach
– Different portfolios even when national circumstances are similar
• Phased approach (initial and reserve packages of PaMs)
• Greater involvement of local and regional governments
and stakeholders
• Examples of integrated approach
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6. Policy instruments used and major
changes in policies and measures by
sector
1 00 %
80 %
P o lic y p o rt f o lio
O th e r
60 %
P o li c y p ro c e s s
In fo r m a ti o n / e d u c a t io n
R e se a rch
V o lu n ta r y a g re e m e n t
40 %
F isc a l
E co n o m ic
R e g u la to r y
20 %
0%
E n e rg y
T r a ns p o r t
In d u s t r y
W a st e
A g r ic u lt u r e
LUC F
C ro s ss e c to r a l
O th e r
T o ta l
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7. Role of new technologies
• R&D of new technologies and accelerated market
diffusion of the existing technologies
• Pivotal technologies: renewables, energy end-use
technologies, fuel cells and carbon capture and
sequestration
• Mix of long-term goals (nuclear fusion) and near term
goals (wind turbine blades)
• Uncertainty on the time the new technologies will be
commercially available
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8. Role of the Kyoto Protocol in shaping
of domestic policy responses
300000
A ctual emissions (1997
inventory estimates)
G HG em issions, G g
280000
A ctual emissions (2002
inventory estimates)
260000
NC3 projection "w ith
measures"
Basic package
NCPIP
NC3 projection "w ith
additional measures"
240000
Measures
abroad
NC3 projections "w ith
additional measures and
measures abroad
Kyoto Target
The Kyoto target in NC3
220000
200000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
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Several other important elements
from the policy cycle
• 9. Criteria used for climate change policy design and
implementation
• 10. Institutional framework for climate change policy
• 11. Monitoring and evaluation of policies and measures,
and projections of emission levels
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Conclusions
• Is there evidence that Annex I Parties were
successful in finding a new approach for
effective policies to control GHG emissions?
• Were these policies sufficient to change the
emission trends in the past and to achieve the
aim of the Convention?
• Are these policies sufficient to form a
framework and set a path to achieve
significant emission reductions in the future?
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