Transcript Course Review/Synthesis Naval War College Theater Security Decision-Making

Course
Review/Synthesis
Naval War College
Theater Security Decision-Making
Dr. Coty Keller
Future Value
Throughout the past three decades
National/Theater Decision-making
courses have provided insight to
generations of successful leaders
 The current version of the TSDM course
is designed to provide YOU will practical
concepts and tools to help you in your
life and career

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NWC/TSDM Course
Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller
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Key Concepts

Resource Allocation
and Force Planning
process
 Organizational
Behavior
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Tools
–
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ADIA Framework
Framework for Moral
Decision-making
JMP Framework
DIME methodology
Bartlett Donut
SWOT
NWC/TSDM Course
Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller
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Defense Resource Allocation and
Force Planning process
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Complex interaction
among 5 subsystems
Outputs include
– war plans,
– strategies,
– future years defense
plans
– authorization/approp
riation of $, and
– weapons/information
systems
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Process is based on a
rational model, but
influenced by
organizational behavior
and politics
Iterative and cyclical
process
You may participate in
this process from any
number of service or
joint organizations
including COCOMs
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Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty
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5 Subsystems of Defense Resource Allocation
Process
Strategy,
Program
Assessment
JSPS
Authorizes
Programs;
Appropriates
Funds
Federal
Budget
(CJCS)
(Congress)
JOPES
(COCOMS)
PPBE
(SecDef)
DAS
Provides
new or
continues
existing
Weapons
and
Information
Systems
(SecDef)
War
Plans,
Capabilities
needed
FYDP
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PLANNING PROGRAMMING BUDGETING AND EXECUTION
Integrated
Priority
National Lists (IPLs)
Military
Strategy
PLANNING
National
Security
Strategy
OUTPUTS
Fiscal
Guidance
DoD Comp
STRATEGY
National
Defense
Strategy
Chairman’s
Program
Rec
Defense
Planning
Guidance
DoD TO
SVC’s
Agencies
Quad
Defense
Review
Chairman’s
Program
Assess
PROGRAMMING
SERVICES AND AGENCIES
POM Build
Program and Budget Review
BUDGETING
AND
DoD COMPTROLLER
EXECUTION
Budget
Budget Estimate
Build
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Statement
DoD COMPTROLLER
Resource
Management
Decisions
FYDP
SECDEF
OSD & OMB
NWC/TSDM 8 & 9 Dr. Coty Keller
* DAWG = Deputy’s Advisory Working Group
DoD
President’s
Budget
Submission
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Logic of Force Planning
Strategy
• Ends
Requirements
What the strategy
says the military
must do
• Ways
• Means
Programmed
Forces
• Size
Operational
Challenges
The security environment and
obstacles to achieving our
goals
• Technology
Operational
• Doctrine
Concepts
• Organization
Ideas for meeting
operational
challenges / future
military competition
• Mix
Required
Capabilities
How Much is Enough?
• Required capabilities in
geopolitical context (scenarios)
• Budget Constraints
• Risk
 Operational
 Force
 Budget
Areas of
Military
Competition
Capabilities to
implement operational
concepts
Force
Characteristics
Generic capabilities across
the spectrum of conflict
Org Behavior
The Org Behavior Perspective
Concept that helps explain or
predict security policy-making
decisions by understanding
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Government a collection of
organizations/sub-organizations
 ACTIONS are the OUTPUTS of
the Organizations

an
organizations’ culture
relationships between
bureaucracy, political leaders
and
the oversight mechanism of
congress
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Organizations respond to
challenges or problems in terms of
IMPACT
(INTERESTS/THREAT/OPPORT
UNITY) on the organization
Organizations avoid uncertainty
and risks
Respond by ROUTINE or SOP
Decisions are SATISFACTORY
VICE OPTIMAL
NWC/TSDM Course
Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller
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Organizational Essence
“The organization’s essence is the view held by the dominant group within the organization
of what its missions and capabilities should be. Related to essence are convictions about
what kinds of people – with what expertise, experience, and knowledge – should be
members of the organization.” Halperin, Clapp, and Kanter: pg. 27
– An organization favors policies and strategies that align with its
essence.
– An organization struggles hardest for the capabilities that it views
necessary to its essence.
– An organization resists efforts to take away the functions that it views
as part of its essence.
Organizational Behavior Traits*

Organizations act as filters
 Projects that demand that existing organizational units depart from their
established programs to perform un-programmed tasks are rarely
accomplished in their designed form
 Projects that require coordination of the programs of several
organizations are rarely accomplished as designed
 Projects that bring together programs of several organizations will
feature an interaction of routines, producing unforeseen and possibly
dangerous consequences.
 Where an assigned piece of a problem is contrary to existing
organizational goals, resistance will be encountered
 Leaders can expect incomplete, even distorted, information (from the
leader’s perspective) from each sub-organization organization about its
part of the problem.
*Norton, Richard J. “Organizational Behavior.” Newport, R.I.: Naval War College faculty paper. April 2007.
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Benefits of Org Behavior Perspective
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More Effective Decisions: by compensating
for for flaws in Rational Model of Decisionmaking
 Helps Explain Decisions
 Enables us to Anticipate/Predict
Positions/Choices of Sub-Organizations
 Heads-Up for Ethical Dilemmas (Anticipate
when what is “Right” may be at odds with
Organizational Interest/Essence)
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ADIA Framework
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Our primary tool in formulating
and preparing to execute
organizational strategy
– Think how Capt Tom Wilder was
able to use it in Stranger in a
Strange Land
– Valuable in larger organizational
context (recall how we Assessed in
NORCOM, Decided in EURCOM,
Implemented with AFRICOM,
Assured in SOUTHCOM)
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Cyclical, iterative in nature
NWC/TSDM Course
Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller
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ASSESS
(Who and Where are we?)
MISSION
Stakeholder
Expectations
Existing Command
Vision
DECIDE
(Where should we go?)
DECISION
ENVIRONMENT
IMPLEMENT
Decision Elements
EXECUTION
ASSURE
What-Who-When-Where
and How (W4H)
(Are we getting there?)
Core Competencies
Priorities and Focus of
Main Effort
Command Strengths
and Weaknesses
New Command Vision
Implementation Plan
Opportunities and
Threats
“SMART” Objectives
Ways
Means
Gaps
Scope & Boundaries
Command Philosophy
Resources
(How Do We Get There?)
Means
People, Process & Policy,
Structure, Technology
Alignment
Cascading and Nested
Objectives
Negotiations
Resistance &
Friction
Trust & Empowerment
LEADERSHIP-BASED
MEASUREMENT
Results-Focused
Performance
Control Systems
Diagnostic Measures
Belief Systems
Boundary Systems
Interactive
Performance Measures
Leading & Lagging
Indicators
Performance Drivers
Efficiency vs.
Effectiveness
Important Perspectives
Accountability
Other Tools
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Framework for Moral Decision-making: aid to help you do
the right thing
JMP Framework – visualization of the players and elements
involved in national security policy making, from the point of
view of the staff officer
DIME methodology – useful construct for categorizing
national security strategies by Diplomatic, Information,
Military and Economic means
Bartlett Donut – depicts the dynamic interaction of the main
considerations in strategy formulation
SWOT –aid to organizational assessment from internal and
external perspectives
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NWC/TSDM Course
Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller
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Framework for Moral
Decision-making (from
“Thinking Ethically,”
Velasquez, Andre,
Shanks and Meyer,
Issues in Ethics 1996)
Ethical
Dilemma
Utilitarian
Get the
Facts,
identify
choices
Which choice
treats everyone
Fairness the same?
Apply 5
Approaches
which choice
Common advances
Good
the
which choice will lead to
the best overall
consequences?
Rights
common
good?
Virtue
Which choice best
respects rights?
Which choice
develops
Decide
moral virtue?
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Joint Military Policy Framework
U.S. Elements
Policy
Decision/Action
Law
Society
Culture
Congress
Executive/
Interagency
DoD
Joint
Staff
Global Elements
Process
COCOMs
Op. Factors
Structure
Services
Sovereignty
Int’l Law / Norms
Religion Ideology
Culture
Authority/
Responsibility
Mission
Resources
Leader
Boss
States
Org.
Behavior
Non-State
Actors
Culture
Filters
IGOs
Staff Officer
Media
Knowledge
State / Local
Media
Individual
Institutional
NGOs
Staff Environment
Public
Others
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Nations
Others
Complex
Interactions
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Bartlett Donut
STRATEGY
MEANS
ENDS
Ways
RISK
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NWC/TSDM 8 & 9 Dr. Coty Keller
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SWOT – Multiple Perspectives
STAKEHOLDER
PERSPECTIVES
INTERNAL
Strengths
Weaknesses
EXTERNAL
Opportunities
Threats
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NWC/TSDM ASSESS – WHO
AND WHERE ARE WE?
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Usefulness

Think of the issues we have explored during
the course; and how these concepts/tools
have helped gain insights into how the
problems can be solved
 The lessons from the course can help you
contribute in the national and theater security
decision-making environment, but it is up to
you to apply them
 The key is to adapt these concepts and tools
to your personal and professional situations
in the future. It is up to you to take advantage
of their power and value. Good luck!
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NWC/TSDM Course
Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller
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