Transcript Document 7879506

2007
Non-Geosynchronous
Orbits Commercial
Space Transportation
Forecast
John Sloan
Federal Aviation Administration
Office of Commercial Space Transportation
[email protected]
May 18, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
Introduction
Worldwide Commercial Launches
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 est.
•
NGSO
13
19
18
9
4
4
4
2
3
5
17
GSO
24
19
18
20
12
20
13
13
15
15
17
Total
37
38
36
29
16
24
17
15
18
20
34
The Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) forecast includes payloads
open to internationally competed launch services procurement and other
commercially sponsored payloads
• Payloads that generate launch demand; not secondaries
• Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 18, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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New to the NGSO 2007-2016 Forecast
•
•
•
•
•
Globalstar’s next generation constellation
• No launch vehicles selected yet, evaluating 6 to 8 satellites per launch
• In a hurry to deploy next generation in addition to two launches in 2007
• A Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing by Globalstar
warned of a possible worst-case scenario: the current constellation
could be unable to complete telephone calls in 2008 because of
S-band antenna difficulties
Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program
• Demonstration launches for NASA by SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler
2008-2010
Boeing’s Delta II has new launches of Italy’s Cosmo-Skymed satellites
Small increase in number of technology demonstration spacecraft
Financial conditions have been positive in the past 12 months, especially for
satellite telecommunications
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 18, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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NGSO Satellite Forecast
191 total satellites compared to 160 in 2006
Increase of 19 %
2007 Satellite Forecast
40
2007-2016 By Sector
• 48% International
Science/Other
35
30
25
Satellites
• 42% Telecommunications
81 satellites vs. 43
last year; the largest
growth sector
Little LEO Telecom
Big LEO Telecom
Commercial Remote Sensing
International Science/Other
20
15
10
• 10% Commercial Remote
Sensing
5
0
2007
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 18, 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Federal Aviation
Administration
2015
3 3
2016
NGSO Launch Demand Forecast
81 total launches compared to 69 in 2006
Increase of 17 %
Average of 8.1 Launches Per Year
• 4.9 Medium-Heavy Vehicles
Increase of over one per year
compared to 2006 forecast
• 3.2 Small Launch Vehicles
2007 Launch Forecast
20
Small (<2,268 kg LEO)
Medium to Heavy (>2,268 kg LEO)
Launches
15
2007-2016 Launches By Sector
• 52 Launches International
Science/Other
• 14 Launches Telecommunications
• 15 Launches Commercial
Remote Sensing
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 18, 2007
10
5
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Federal Aviation
Administration
2014
2015
4 4
2016
Satellite and Launch Breakout
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL Avg
Satellites
Big LEO
Little LEO
International Scientific/Other
Commercial Remote Sensing
Total Satellites
Launch Demand
Medium-to-Heavy Vehicles
Small Vehicles
Total Launches
8
7
15
4
34
0
0
12
6
18
8
12
13
1
34
14
6
9
1
30
14
0
7
1
22
6
0
7
1
14
6
0
7
0
13
0
0
7
3
10
0
0
7
1
8
0
0
7
1
8
56
25
91
19
191
5.6
2.5
9.1
1.9
19.1
11
6
17
8
5
13
8
5
13
5
4
9
4
2
6
3
2
5
2
2
4
4
2
6
2
2
4
2
2
4
49
32
81
4.9
3.2
8.1
• Globalstar has 56 satellites in the forecast
• ORBCOMM has 25 satellites
• Too early to forecast Iridium next generation schedule (starting 2013-2014?)
• More Commercial Remote Sensing satellites are in the near term
• Visibility into the market fades about four to five years ahead
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 18, 2007
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Administration
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Mass Breakout NGSO
< 200 kg
(< 441 lbm)
200-600 kg
(441-1323 lbm)
601-1200 kg
(1324-2646 lbm)
> 1200 kg
(> 2646 lbm)
Total
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total
Percent of Total
16
8
12
7
43
40%
9
1
1
1
12
11%
4
4
12
15
35
33%
5
5
5
2
17
16%
34
18
30
25
107
100%
• The 601 - 1200 kg class had only 13 satellites or 15% of
the total mass in the 2006 near-term forecast.
• Globalstar second generation (2009-2010) will be heavier than
first generation (2007)
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 18, 2007
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Administration
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Near-Term Identified Manifest
Service Type
Commercial Remote
Sensing
2007
RADARSAT 2* - Soyuz
WorldView 1 - Delta 2
TerraSAR X* - Dnepr
GeoEye 1 - Delta 2
2008
WorldView 2 - Delta 2
RapidEye 1-5 - Dnepr
2009
TanDEM X - Dnepr
2010
EROS C - START
International Science
THEOS - Dnepr
RazakSAT* - Falcon 1
AGILE* - PSLV
Egyptsat* - Dnepr
Saudisat 3*
SaudiComsat 3-7*
SumbandilaSat - Shtil
CASSIOPE - Falcon 9
DEIMOS - TBA
UK DMC 2
GOCE - Rockot
SMOS - Rockot
DubaiSat-1 - Dnepr
Cryosat 2 - Rockot
SERVIS 2 - Rockot
Kompsat 3 - TBA
Microscope - TBA
Kompsat 5 - TBA
Telecommunications
ORBCOMM CDS-3 - TBA
ORBCOMM (6) - Cosmos
Globalstar (4) - Soyuz
Globalstar (4) - Soyuz
ORBCOMM (6) - TBA
ORBCOMM (6) - TBA
Globalstar (8) - TBA
ORBCOMM (6) - TBA
Globalstar (8) - TBA
Globalstar (6) - TBA
Other
Genesis 2* - Dnepr
SAR Lupe 2* - Cosmos
SAR Lupe 3 - Cosmos
Cosmo-Skymed 1* - Delta 2
TBA - Falcon 1
Sundancer - Falcon 9
Total Payloads
Total Launches
FAA Realization
Launches
Galaxy - TBA
SAR Lupe 4 - Cosmos
SAR Lupe 5 - Cosmos
Cosmo-Skymed 2 - Delta 2
Cosmo-Skymed 3 - TBA
Dragon COTS Demo 2- Falcon 9 K-1 COTS Demo 3 - K-1
Dragon COTS Demo 3- Falcon 9
K-1 COTS Demo 1 - K-1
K-1 COTS Demo 2 - K-1
Dragon COTS Demo 1- Falcon 9 Cosmo-Skymed 4 - TBA
34
17
18
13
30
13
25
8
10–13
* Carryover from 2006.
Note: Chart includes only those payloads announced as of May 4, 2007.
It does not include secondary payloads that do not generate launch demand.
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Federal Aviation
Administration
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Large Number of Launches in the Near Term
• There are 17 launches scheduled in 2007 and 13 each in 2008 and
2009.
• Only 5 of 13 projected launches actually launched in 2006
• Delays in funding, new satellite and launch vehicle
development, and a Dnepr launch failure
• All 8 launches carried over into 2007
• NGSO 2007 forecast again contains uncertainty for the near term
• Gap between the demand for launches and actual launch rates
• Instead of changing the methodology used by all previous
forecasts, a “realization factor” has been adopted for the current
year as an additional marker.
• FAA realization of 10 to 13 launches for 2007
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 18, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Financial Trends
•
•
A lot of good news about finance
• Favorable investment terms
• Driven by an overall increase in global private equity investments
• During the 1990s (ORBCOMM, Globalstar, and Iridium), the
primary investors were satellite manufacturers
• Healthy economy
• Investors are looking broadly at telecommunications to include the
NGSO sector despite previous bankruptcies
• Other factors include:
• Increased number of subscribers for NGSO telecom systems
• Handsets have increased in capability while decreasing in size
• Lower prices for services
• Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) have been successful
• ORBCOMM and Globalstar each raised over $100 million in 2006
However, FCC has little activity regarding new NGSO license applicants
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 18, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Launch Trends
• U.S. launch market share has increased to about 40% of the nearterm identified market while Russia has 57%
• In recent forecasts, Russia held about 80% of the market
• Increase in U.S.-built vehicles comes from:
• COTS program launches with private co-funding
• Delta 2 Cosmo-Skymed launches
• Additional SpaceX launches
• Launch vehicles for Globalstar and ORBCOMM to be
determined
• International market diversity continues
• Only 10 of 37 identified launches from 2007-2010 have the
satellite owner/operator launching on a vehicle from their home
country
• Mostly because of lower-priced Russian vehicles
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
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Administration
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Summary
• Demand for an average of 8.1 worldwide commercial NGSO
launches per year
• Based on projection of 191 satellites seeking launch services
over the next 10 years
• Launch demand increase of 17% compared to the 2006 forecast
• More telecommunications and technology demonstration
spacecraft in the forecast
• Relatively healthy forecast in the near term
NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
May 18, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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