Transcript Document 7730030

EURAINSAT
European Satellite
Rainfall Analysis and
Monitoring
at the Geostationary Scale
V. Levizzani
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima
Bologna
and all EURAINSAT Scientists
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Increasing demand for local and global products for:
Products for developing countries (e.g. Africa)
Monitoring of remote areas
Applications to short range forecasting and nowcasting
Agriculture (crop control, irrigation,…)
Assimilation into NWP models
(eg. latent heat nudging, physical initialization,…)
Weather modification
…
Climate and Global Change
Large underestimation of the role of precipitation processes
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
In particular, for meteorology:
Instantaneous rapid update estimates for hydrology:
Disaster management (eg. Flash flood);
Use in coupled LAM + hydrological models that include runoff.
Identification of orographic enhancement and monitoring
of extreme events.
Correct determination of precipitation not only in case of
deep convection, but also for frontal and stratiform rainfall in general.
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
What is EURAINSAT?
A shared-cost project (contract EVG1-2000-00030) co-funded by the Research DG of the
European Commission within the RTD activities of a generic nature of the Environment and
Sustainable Development sub-programme (5th Framework Programme).
Funded over a 3-year period starting January 1st, 2001.
What is the main purpose?
Develop new satellite rainfall estimation methods at the geostationary scale for an operational
use in short and very short range weather monitoring and forecasting.
Who are the key target users?
The project is very much application-oriented and natural users are to be found among:
National and regional met services,
Basin authorities,
International agencies (WMO, FAO, …),
National and international space agencies,
National agencies for civil and environmental protection,
Institutions for the protection against hydrogeological risks,
Air traffic control centers,
Research institutions,
Industry, agriculture, …
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
EURAINSAT - European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring
at the Geostationary Scale
The Consortium:
ITALY
V. Levizzani, A. Buzzi, F. Tampieri
CNR – Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e dell’Oceano, Bologna
A. Mugnai
CNR – Istituto di Fisica dell’Atmosfera, Roma
F. Meneguzzo
Laboratorio per la Meteorologia e le Modellistica Ambientale (LAMMA), Firenze
F. S. Marzano
Univ. dell’Aquila, Dip. di Ingegneria Elettrica, Monteluco di Roio
F. Prodi
Univ. di Ferrara, Dip. di Fisica, Ferrara
ISRAEL
D. Rosenfeld, A. Khain
Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Institute of Earth Sciences, Jerusalem
GERMANY
M. Kästner
German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen
UNITED KINGDOM
C. Kidd
Univ. of Birmingham, School of Geography and Environmental Sci., Edgbaston,
Birmingham
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
EURAINSAT - European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring
at the Geostationary Scale
EXTERNAL STEERING AND COOPERATION:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, P. Bauer
European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, Darmstadt, Germany, J. Schmetz
European Space Agency, Nordwijk, The Netherlands, J. P. V. Poiares Baptista
NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, E. A. Smith
Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California, J. F. Turk
NOAA-NESDIS, Office of Research and Applications, Silver Springs, Maryland, J. F. W. Purdom
Raytheon ITSS, Distributed Active Archive Center, NASA-GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, G. A. Vicente
World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, D. E. Hinsman
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Research activities:
Precipitating system structure
Quantitative rainfall estimations
Operational Meteorology
Assimilation into NWP Local Area Models
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
From simple
VIS-IR
MW
estimates
To combined estimates
that are more
Through:
•Microphysically correct,
•Multispectral cloud microphysical
characterization
•Linked to operational
requirements,
•Cloud modeling
•To be assimilated into
NWP models
•Rapid update cycles
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG)
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
MSG Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI)
Meteosat
MSG
0.5-0.9 m
0.75 m broadband
0.56-0.71
0.74-0.88
1.50-1.78
Water vapor
spectrum
6.4
5.35-7.15
6.85-7.85
Infrared windows
11.5
3.48-4.36
8.30-9.10
9.80-11.80
11.0-13.0
Visible spectrum
Pseudo-sounding
9.38-9.44
12.4-14.4
Sampling distance
2.25-km (visible)
4.5-km (others)
1-km (hi-res visible)
3-km (others)
On-Earth pixel
resolution
2.25-km (visible)
5-km (others)
1.4-km (hi-res visible)
4.8-km (others)
Update cycle
30-minutes
15-minutes
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Transmittance
Using MODIS prior to the MSG Launch
Wavelength (m)
AMSR-E
SSM/I
AMSU-A,B
CloudSat
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Key target areas
and experiments
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Frontal system and heavy rain over the
Lago Maggiore region (NW Italy and
Switzerland)
Frontal passage and cyclogenesis
over Northern Italy
Persistent lifting of stable air during
a frontal passage over the Alps
IOP 2 18-21 Sept. 1999
IOP 5 2-5 Oct. 1999
Cold frontal passage over the Alps
IOP 8 20-22 Oct. 1999
IOP 15 5-10 Nov. 1999
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
UK and
Northern Europe
Light
and/or
Sustained rain
30 Oct. 2000
UK and Europe
sustained rain from
several subsequent storms
28 June 2001
Insignificant rain over the UK.
Interesting case to test the sensitivity
of rain algorithms to very light rain.
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Climatological areas
Europe
and
Africa
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Areas for cloud microphysics
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Strategies
1.
Use of new active and passive sensors:
MW instruments
VIS/IR/NIR channels
Precipitation radars
2.
Development of hybrid IR/MW rainfall algorithms in rapid update
3.
Assimilation of rainfall fields in NWP models
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Impact of smoke
particles
on cloud
microstructure and
precipitation…
TRMM VIRS image of fires, smoke and clouds over Kalimantan, Indonesia, from 1 March 1998, 02:50 UTC. The color
is composed of:
red for visible reflectance,
green for 3.7 m reflectance (approximating re), and
blue for the inverse of 10.8 m brightness temperature.
The northwest coast of the island is denoted by the yellow line. The small orange areas on the upper right (east)
corner are hot spots indicating the fires. The smoke, streaming from the hot spots south-westward, is indicated by
the fuzzy purple color of the background. The smoke-free background is blue. This color scheme shows clouds with
small droplets (re<10 m) as white, becoming yellow at the supercooled temperatures. Clouds with larger droplets
(re>15 m) are colored pink, and cold ice clouds appear red. The black hatching marks the areas in which the TRMM
radar detected precipitation.
Vertical cross section along the line AB in the above figure, where the left end is point A and the right end
correspond to point B. The gray area is the clouds, as measured by their top temperature. The colors
represent the precipitation reflectivity, in dBZ, as measured by the TRMM radar. The white line is the
brightness temperature of the TRMM Microwave Imager 85 GHz vertical polarization, plotted at the altitude
of that temperature.
Rosenfeld, D., 1999: TRMM observed first direct evidence of smoke from forest fires inhibiting rainfall.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 26 (20), 3105-3108.
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Maximum
Reflectivity &
Lightning
Events
Stratiform
Convective
Normalized LIS event vs maximum reflectivity
Dietrich et al., 2001
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Strategies
1.
Use of new active and passive sensors:
MW instruments
VIS/IR/NIR channels
Precipitation radars
2.
Development of hybrid IR/MW rainfall algorithms in rapid update
3.
Assimilation of rainfall fields in NWP models
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Elements of a Global Precipitation Analysis
microphysical information
dynamical information
Infrequent microwavebased rainfall
estimates
Global or regionalscale model forecast
Rapidly updated IRbased observations
Orographic adjustment,
cloud growth/decay
adjustment
space-time information
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
An Information Transfer Perspective
In essence, the procedure is an information-transfer. How much and for how long
is microphysical information from past microwave overpasses maintained? What
are the best techniques to forward-propagate past information (microwave
observations, multispectral IR observations)?
t-2
t-1
t0
t+1
etc.
Shaded box represents the previous-time “window” prior to t0
Denotes equally-spaced geostationary-based IR observation
Denotes non-routine, non-equally spaced microwave-based observation
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
24-hour accumulations from geostationary-based technique 2000/04/27 1200 UTC
24-hour accumulations from merged microwave sensors (F-11,13,14,15; TRMM)
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
21 June 2001. Daily rainfall totals (mm) from a combined microwave-infrared rainfall estimation
technique. Infrared cloud top brightness temperatures are calibrated using passive microwave estimates
updated on a daily basis. Data fusion and artificial neural networks are also being evaluated.
Chris Kidd, Univ. of Birmingham, UK.
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
24-hour accumulations
from merged
microwave sensors
(F-11,13,14,15; TRMM)
2000/05/16 0300 UTC
Limited overpasses
over Italian coast
Some possible false
identification in Alps
24-hour accumulations
from geostationarybased technique
2000/05/16 0300 UTC
Local flood event in
southwest coast is
captured
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Strengths/Weaknesses
From simple rainfall estimate using:
•VISIR
•(GOES/MSG/MODIS)
•Microwave
•(SSM/I, TRMM, AMSU, AMSR)
Through:
•Multispectral cloud microphysical
characterization
•Cloud modeling
•Mesoscale Forecasts
•Rapid update cycles
•Space/Time information
Ancillary Data:
Orographic adjustment
To combined estimates
that are:
•Microphysically correct,
•Linked to operational
requirements,
•To be assimilated into
NWP models
Strengths:
• Convective-based rain systems
Typically heaviest rain locations
Slower moving systems, e.g., tropical
cyclones
• Accumulations on a daily scale or longer
Adaptation to daily changes
Correlations near 0.6 with land gauge
data
• Well-suited for insertion into numerical
models
Soil moisture analysis (land data
assimilation)
COAMPS
Topography
24-hr Accumulations
Surface
Adjusted
Winds
Weaknesses:
• Defining the rain/no-rain threshold
Areas of light (< 0.5 mm/hr) precipitation
tend to be too widespread
• Fast moving mid-latitude systems
Insufficient observations of precipitation
development from necessary spectral regions
• Movement over areas of complex topography
Proper accounting for orographic precipitation
and rain shadowing effects
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Strategies
1.
Use of new active and passive sensors:
MW instruments
VIS/IR/NIR channels
Precipitation radars
2.
Development of hybrid IR/MW rainfall algorithms in rapid update
3.
Assimilation of rainfall fields in NWP models
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
If Rsat > Rfor
if Rsat < Rfor
increase q over saturation
qnew(z) = qsatur(z) + c(t,z) (Rsat-Rfor)
decrease q
qnew(z) = qsatur(z) + d(t,z) (Rsat-Rfor)  {q(z) – qref(z)}
where qref(z) is the reference humidity profile and c
and d are nudging coefficients.
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
First results
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Calabria
Flood
8 Sept 2000
1030 UTC
MODIS ch02
0.86 m
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Calabria
Flood
9 Sept 2000
0935 UTC
MODIS
ch02
0.86 m
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Features of the FSU Superensemble Forecast System:
Real-time assimilation of SSMI, TRMM 2A12, and blended
microwave/IR rain rate algorithms and techniques via a
physical initialization (ie, reverse initialization)
Forecast uses multi-analysis forecasts (12 different models) and
statistics from a training phase to produce superensemble forecasts
of precipitation
Day 2 and 3 forecasts show improved skill in precipitation forecast
compared to operational models that do not employ physical
initialization
This forecast technique is promising for the prediction and
guidance of extreme rain events in flood prone areas
T.N.Krishnamurti, FSU
J.F.Turk, NRL
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
12 UTC September 8, 2000:
Observed and 1,2,3-day forecasted average precipitation
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Orographic Conditions: California frontal passage January 11, 2001 0000 UTC
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
METEOSAT-7 IR image
24-h rainfall accumulation (mm)
6 October, 1998
SSM/I 85-GHz Brightness Temperature
20-GHz Path Attenuation at 0600 UTC
F. S. Marzano – Univ. of L’Aquila
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
Want to know about the future?
We will not only think in terms of:
Using single satellite platforms
Adopting a synergy of satellites conceived
for different uses
What’s boiling in the pot?
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG)
co-sponsored by
Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS)
and
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Co-chairs
Arnold Gruber, NOAA-NESDIS
Vincenzo Levizzani, ISAC-CNR
The IPWG is established to foster the:
Development of better measurements, and improvement of their utilization;
Improvement of scientific understanding;
Development of international partnerships.
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
1st Meeting in Ft. Collins, CO
CSU, 20-22 June, 2001
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG)
The objectives of the IPWG are:
to promote standard operational procedures and common software for deriving precipitation
measurements from satellites;
to establish standards for validation and independent verification of precipitation
measurements derived from satellite data; including:
•reference standards for the validation of precipitation for weather, hydrometeorological
and climate applications;
•standard analysis techniques that quantify the uncertainty of ground-based measurements
over relevant time and space scales needed by satellite products;
to devise and implement regular procedures for the exchange of data on inter-comparisons
of operational precipitation measurements from satellites;
to stimulate increased international scientific research and development in this field and to
establish routine means of exchanging scientific results and verification results;
to make recommendations to national and international agencies regarding the utilization of
current and future satellite instruments on both polar and geostationary platforms; and
to encourage regular education and training activities with the goal of improving global
utilization of remote sensing data for precipitation measurements.
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002
http://www.isao.bo.cnr.it/~eurainsat
CARPE DIEM Kick-off Meeting, 28-29 January, 2002