Transcript The Regional and Urban Numerical Weather

The Regional and Urban Numerical Weather
Prediction and Operational Long Range Plan
of the Meteorological Service of Canada
Dr. Gilbert Brunet
Meteorological Research Branch
Meteorological Service of Canada
Environnment Canada
Challenges in Urban Meteorology: A Forum for Users and Providers
21 September 2004
Aknowledgement: Desgagné, Bélair, Mailhot and Roch
Outline of the talk…

Who we are

Multi-scale meteorological modeling

Numerical weather prediction now, in one year and ten
years:
Two examples of importance for urban area
-Hurricanes
- Urban meteorology and air quality

Future R&D challenges
Who we are
 Canadian
Meteorological Centre and
Meteorological Research Branch is the
– Canadian equivalent to US NOAA NWS NCEP
and US Navy FNMOC for numerical weather
prediction
– Canadian equivalent to LLNL NARAC for
multi-scale atmospheric transport and
dispersion modeling
 Equivalent centres within the World
Meteorological Organization : Washington (USA),
Bracknell (UK), Toulouse (FR), Melbourne (AU),
Tokyo (JP)
S
C
A
L
E
Multi- Seasonal Forecast
Middle Atmosphere Model
&
Data assimilation
Monthly Forecast
Medium-range Forecast
( 240 h, 10 to 100 km )
&
Data assimilation
Ensemble Forecast
Regional and
Mesoscale Forecast
( 24-48 h, 10-24 km )
&
Data assimilation
Regional Climate Model
Micrometeorology
(10m-1km)
Limited-Area Model
0-24h 1-4km
&
Data assimilation
TIME SCALE
Model Resolution (km)
S
P
A
C
E
Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Forecasting & Modelling
System
2004-2014
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
Year
11
20
Uniform resolution
Variable resolution
Hydrostatic
Nonhydrostatic
Global
Limited-area
Distributed memory
--------------------------------3D Var Data Assimilation
4D Var Data Assimilation
Ensemble Kalman Filter
Operational forecast
Emergency response
Volcanic ash
Air quality
Stratospheric ozone
Wave model
Coupling to
oceanographic
simulations
etc
Improving Hurricane Forecasting
Hurricane Juan
28 September 2003
Halifax
Hurricane climatology
75°N
110°W
5°N
10°E
Grid of GEM for global Numerical weather
Prediction (33 km horizontal resolution)
Instantaneous precipitation rate (mm/hr) for the Operational GEM model
A 5 day animation (20/01/2002 to 25/01/2002) (HR=100km, TR=45 min.)
Instantaneous precipitation rate (mm/hr) for the Meso-Global GEM model
A 5 day animation (20/01/2002 to 25/01/2002) (HR=33km, TR= 15 min.)
Canada-Japan Collaboration
• 25 time more powerful
than the IBM cluster at
the
Canadian
Meteorological Center
(CMC)
• Available in 5~10 years
from now at CMC
Modelling the Full Lifecycle of
Hurricane Earl (Sept 1998)
at 1km Resolution with MC2 Model (Canadian equivalent to
US MM5)
964 hPa
ET Phase
985 hPa
Tropical Phase
Class2 Hurricane
September 1998: Classified as a very active TC period
-Humidity at 350m height is shown over Gulf of Mexico for the first
12 hours of the simulation.
-Only 1% of the simulation domain is shown!
From CCRS
REPRESENTATION of URBAN
SURFACES in Meteorological
Service of Canada
ATMOSPHERIC MODELS
Operational Representation of Urban Surfaces at
the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC):
New Opportunities
In the higher resolution convective scale models that are on the verge of
being operationally implemented at CMC, it will become increasingly
important to correctly represent physical processes over urban surfaces.
This is not the case in the short and medium-range weather forecast
systems currently operational at CMC, in which even large urban areas
(e.g., 50 km x 25 km) would have a negligible impact on the atmospheric
circulations produced by the models.
GLOBAL mediumrange forecasts
 ~ 100 km
Urban area does not even cover
a single grid point of the model !
REGIONAL shortrange forecasts
 ~ 25 km
Urban area covers 2 model grid
points.
LOCAL convective
scale models
 ~ 1 km
Urban area covers a large
number of points (50x25=1250)
Meteorological Service of Canada
Environment Canada
RPN
As the resolution increase, you need to consider new
‘details’ such as….
What you need is more than
a high resolution topography…
Need to develop a new
Physics parameterization
scheme (Town Energy
Budget or TEB, details in the
surface characteristics e.g.
heat, momentum and moisture
fluxes)
The Joint Urban 2003 Experiment
Atmospheric dispersion study
28 June to 31 July 2003
In collaboration with our CRTI
partners (U. of Waterloo,
Defence R&D Canada)
Meteorological Service of Canada
Environment Canada
Include the following meteorological
measurements:
22 surface met stations
6 surface energy budget stations
2 CTI windtracer lidars
2 radiosonde systems
4 wind profiler/RASS systems
1 FM-CW radar
3 ceilometers
9 sodars
+ Oklahoma mesonet
+ NEXRAD radars of the US weather
service
RPN
Other Cases and Collaborations
Assessment of role and impact of TEB in Canadian urban environments:
For example:
A)
Cold weather cases with snow
(e.g., Montreal in January)
B)
Other cases: opportunity to use
the Multi-city Urban Hydrometeorological dataset (MUHB)
with Prof. Tim Oke’s group at U.
British-Colombia
C) Developping an operational
system for Vancouver in view of
the 2010 Winter Olympics.
Meteorological Service of Canada
Environment Canada
RPN
GEM is an ideal tool for multi-scale atmospheric
transport and dispersion problems, including urban
scale
Urban atmospheric transport
and dispersion tools
 We
have started a project based on GEM to
develop and validate an integrated, state-of-theart, high-fidelity multi-scale modeling system for
the accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow
and dispersion of CBRN materials.
 Development of this proposed multi-scale
modeling system will provide the real-time
modeling and simulation tool to predict injuries,
casualties, and contamination and to make
relevant decisions to minimize the consequences
based on a pre-determined decision making
framework.
Conclusion
For 2004-2005 the R&D strategy in collaboration with CMC,
regional weather services and Canadian Universities

Global NWP with a MESOGLOBAL GEM (35km) with a lid at
the stratopause (.1mb) with the Regional GEM physics package

A 4D-Var data assimilation system with increasing new
asynoptic and satellite data

An Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) will be delivered with a
comprehensive physics and initial condition perturbations
approach
- A comprehensive unified EPS R&D and operational Long
Range Plan has bee initiated with the National Weather
Service. Ribbon Tying Ceremony 16-18 November, 2004,
NCEP, Camp Springs
Conclusion
 Improved
our Regional (15km-10km) and
Local (3km-1km) NWP system with
applications to urban area problems
 Collaborating
with CMC, REGIONS and
Canadian Universities and other partners for
Environmental Prediction (coupling GEM with
chemistry, hydrology and ocean)