Transcript INVESTIGATING SKILLS AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING DEMAND IN ROMANIA

INVESTIGATING SKILLS AND
VOCATIONAL TRAINING DEMAND IN
ROMANIA
A presentation by Dr. Catalin GHINARARU
NATIONAL LABOR RESEARCH INSTITUTE
(N.L.R.I.)
ROMANIA
THE ROMANIAN TRANSITION FROM “PLAN TO MARKET” AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SKILLS AND TRAINING DEMAND
IDENTIFICATION SYSTEM
First phase of transition-chaotic restructuring
and no skills and training identification system;
Second phase of transition: introduction of deep
structural reforms and the emergence of skills
and training demand identification systems;
End of transition & preparation for the EU
Accession and the beginning of consolidation
the skills and training demand identification
systems;
First phase of the transition
1989/90-1996
Chaotic restructuring
of the economy and a
sharp in output;
Partial liberalization of
prices;
High inflation and
short-lived, nonsustainable growth;
Emergence of private
training providers,
focusing on general skills
(IT, foreign languages,
accounting);
Dissolution of the state
vocational-training
system;
Exploration of different
approaches for the
establishment of a
system for the
identification of skills and
training demand
FIRST ATTEMPTS TO IDENTIFY THE
DEMAND FOR SKILLS AND TRAINING
As early as 1994-95, a first version of the new
“Occupational Classification Handbook” has been
elaborated and the Council for Occupational Standards
established;
Identification of demand for skills based solely on macromodels, starting from the labor supply side
characteristics, with little inputs from the demand side;
Identification of training demand, based on anecdotal
evidence from the market as well as on findings of sector
based studies;
First attempts made to establish a National Adult
Training Authority
No comprehensive overview and no strategic
perspective; Little or no cooperation in between the
Ministries of Labor and Education
Early researches and studies on the
demand for skills and training
In between 1992-93 and subsequently in between 1995-96, a joint
approach has been taken by the trade unions and the employers in
the metallurgical industry to identify the need for new skills as well
as to trace skills that were obsolete and to formulate a strategy for
vocational training for the sector;
The evaluation was based on a survey undertaken in all the major
industrial sites of the sector at the time. It was based on
questionnaires and interviews which tried to highlight training needs
of the workers as well as to trace economic perspectives from the
point of view of the managers. In the end, the research, attempted to
link in between the findings of the two instruments and thus to
identify the demand for skills as well as the training and re-training
needs in the sector. Little was made out of this initiative as structural
reforms that ensued, led to a massive restructuring and in certain
cases to the all-out closure of some of the companies surveyed;
Meanwhile, similar approach has been tried by the National Labor
Research Institute at a mining company as a part of preparing social
restructuring plans
SECOND PHASE OF THE TRANSITION
(1997-2000)
Implementation of deep
structural reforms;
Full price liberalization and
massive restructuring of state
industry;
Consolidation of economic
fundamentals, attainment of
the “critical mass of progress in
transition” (1997-98);
Breakthrough in enterprise and
banks privatization (19972000)
Formal invitation to start EU
Accession talks (Dec.1999)
Gradual-build-up of the
institutional framework of the
labor market (Employment
Agency-1999,National Adult
Training Board-late 2000);
First Phare VET project;
Demand identification systems
for skills and training focus on
services for the dislocated
workers as a result of massive
lay offs;
First attempts to evaluate skills
and training demand on a
national base
EVALUATION OF SKILLS AND TRAINING DEMAND IN
THE SECOND PHASE OF TRANSITION
Evaluation of skills and training demand for active
employment measures. Quantitative and qualitative
analysis employed at local and regional level, as a
background for the implementation of training and
assistance for the dislocated workers (1997-99);
Evaluation of the nationwide demand for skills and
training employing only quantitative methods, developed
by the National Labor Research Institute (1998-99);
Early phase of restructuring meant that no clear
perspectives were yet in sight, efforts concentrating on
macro-economic stabilization and mitigating the social
effects of mass lay-offs;
First attempt at exploring demand for skills and training
from the perspective of the private training providers,
undertaken by Dr. C. Ghinararu as part of an activeemployment measures program (1999)
Methodology in a nutshell: first attempts at identifying the
demand for skills and training
Nationwide evaluation of the demand for skills attempted by the National
Labor Research Institute. Relying on macro data from the national statistics
and drawing from the tendencies to date, both at macro-economic level as
well as on the labor market and using comparative data from other transition
economies, it tried to identify future demand for skills and vocational training
based on the development perspectives for different sectors and branches
of the economy. No training provider’s or employers’ perspective has been
employed in the exercise;
The exercise undertaken by Dr. Ghinararu as part of an active employment
measures program, employed by contrast a totally explorative approach,
trying to immerse itself in the reality of the market, as seen by employers,
unions and training providers. While partial in itself it nevertheless revealed
the reality of a “dual-economy” with different skills and training demands
and drew attention upon the rise of subsistence farming underemployment;
End of Transition and Preparation for EU Accession
(2001-2004)
Strong resumption of the
economic growth;
Macro stabilization acquired and
growth firmly entrenched;
Increasing flow of foreign direct
investment and growth of
domestic demand;
Credit boom and appreciation of
national currency, increase in real
incomes for both companies and
households;
Low unemployment and rather
strong migration for employment
abroad;
NATO Accession (spring 2004),
date set for EU Accession (1st of
Jan.2004)
Second phase of PHARE-VET;
The NATB becomes fully
operational (National Adult
Training Board); Commissioning of
a series of studies on both the
demand and supply of vocational
training;
Elaboration of several preaccession documents requiring
inputs on the demand for skills
and training (the JAP, the JAP, the
NDP 2007-13);
Elaboration of the first alternative
methodological approaches for the
identification of skills and training
demand
Evaluation of the demand for skills and training in
the EU Pre-Accession period
The Comprehensive nationwide methodological approach: Relying
on macro-economic data it provides forecasts and it attempts to
model the future evolutions on the labor market, using a set of
explanatory variables. Modeling results are subsequently used to
quantify the demand for skills and training. It complements the
purely quantitative approach with a representative qualitative
research that uses a structured questionnaire applied on selected
companies. Interviews with major employers might come as an
addition to the approach. Employed by the National Labor
Research Institute in its evaluation of the skills and training
demand for the “West” and “Centre” development regions;
The Explorative approach, employed by different organizations,
including the NLRI, which relies basically only on interviews and
questionnaires as well as occasionally on focus groups with
relevant stakeholders and which attempts at giving broad
directions regarding the demand for skills and training rather than
precise quantitative assessments;
METHODOLOGY IN A NUTSHELL – EVALUATION OF THE DMAND
FOR SKILLS via the ASSESSMENT OF THE TRAINING SUPPLY
First nationwide study to b undertaken on the supply for training and
which extracted information from interviews with 70 training suppliers;
commissioned by the NATB (2001);
Gave hints about the demand for skills and training via information about
the market share and the degree of specialization of the training
providers;
The evaluation of the quality of the services provided, which has been
assessed using several dimensions of the concept, provided information
on their client base as well as on their client’s needs and they way these
were addressed;
The methodology did not rely on a representative sample but made use,
extensively, of the background macro-economic and labor market data
against which the results of the questionnaires have been interpreted.
The interpretation was further formalized by a pseudo-quantitative
approach which revealed correlations in between the identified
characteristics of the training supply and the known or presumed
characteristics of the demand, thereby validating the research
METHODOLOGY IN A NUTSHELL: NATIONWIDE COMPREHENSIVE
RESEARCH ON THE DEMAND FOR SKILLS
Employed by the NLRI in its endeavor aimed at assessing the demand
for skills and Vocational Training in the “CENTRE” and WEST” regions
of Romania (2003-04); commissioned by the Ministry of Education;
Analysis of the current economic and labor market trends has been
undertaken and a model for forecasting medium and long term
evolutions has been applied; Subsequently, this has allowed for deriving
the demand for “broad skills” based on the development trends for
different sectors and branches;
Further refining came from a questionnaire applied on a sample of
companies, which has been constructed so as to be representative from
the point of view of the economic structure of the region; Additional
information came from in-depth interviews with managers;
Focus groups with stakeholders contributed by giving the broad
guidelines for development, against which both the forecasts as well as
the results from the explorative research have been assessed;
The approach as such has been adopted by the Ministry of Education
and will be extended nationwide.
METHODOLOGY IN A NUTSHELL: EXPLORATIVE
APPROACHES AT SECTOR OR REGIONAL LEVEL
Explorative research on the demand for skills and training undertaken by
the NLRI and the University of Aarhus (Denmark); commissioned by the
Ministry of Labor, Social Solidarity and Family (spring 2004);
The study relied on a series of 80 structured interviews with managers and
trade union leaders/employee representatives in a number of 40
companies, from two fields of activity (tourism and construction) an two
regions (the “NORTH-WEST” and the “SOUTH WEST”);
The number of companies to be surveyed from each of the two chosen
sectors and from each of the two chosen regions, has been established by
using the shares of the two chosen sectors in the combined regional
employment and of each of the two region’s population in their combined
population;
The study, which has been convergent in its conclusions with the analysis
undertaken in 2001 as well as with the conclusions of several other labor
market analyses has been further complemented and confirmed by a
research aiming at the same topic but targeting as respondents,
representatives of employer’s associations from the same fields of activity
and regions;
CONCLUSIONS
-Methods of investigating the demand for skills and training
have evolved apace with the transition process;
-As this has been drawing to an end and the economy has
consolidated its stability and growth trend, the approaches
have become more systematic;
-The growing domestic demand, expressed by the increasing
disposable incomes of both households and firms gives a
further boost to the training industry, meanwhile raising its
interest in the identification of the demand for skills, as a way
of improving its services and increasing its market share;
-Currently two alternative approaches have emerged,
following several endeavors in the field, commissioned by
relevant stakeholders and/or public authorities:
-One that relies on macro-economic modeling
with its results refined via representative field research
AND
-Another, which solely bases its results on
qualitative information, drawn from explorative studies.