Transcript Danny Blair, Department of Geography PARC-MB Hydro Climate Change Research Professor

Danny Blair, Department of Geography
PARC-MB Hydro Climate Change Research Professor
University of Winnipeg
In these matters the
only certainty is that
nothing is certain.
Pliny the Elder
(23 AD - 79 AD)
It is much easier to
be critical than to be
correct.
Benjamin Disraeli
(1804-1881)
Global warming is happening
IPCC
Temperature changes over land, 60°-90°N
1961-90 baseline
The “Hockey Stick” Graph
1998
After: M.E. Mann, R.S. Bradley and M.K. Hughes, Nature, 392, 779-787 (1998).
Contrarians would have you
believe that this research has
been falsified and that the
conclusions of the IPCC have,
therefore, been proven invalid
2002 was the 2nd warmest year on record
NASA
2003 was the third warmest year on record
NASA
The “Keeling Curve”
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Vostok, Antarctica Carbon Dioxide
420,000
Yrs Ago
Vostok
Isotopic Ratios!
Oxygen (8 protons + 8 electrons)
N = 8 protons + 8 neutrons =
16O
Oxygen (8 protons + 8 electrons)
N = 8 protons + 10 neutrons =
18O
Hydrogen (Deuterium)
electron (-)
neutron
proton (+)
2
H
D
Higher
atmospheric
temperatures
Precipitation
enriched in 18O
and D
Summer
precipitation
is heavy
Lower
atmospheric
temperatures
Precipitation
depleted in 18O
and D
Winter
precipitation
is light
GEOGRAPHY DEPARTMENT’S
MASS SPECTROMETER
Bill Buhay
Winnipeg Precipitation 1992
d18O precipitation o/oo (SMOW)
Heavy water
0
-5
-10
-12.5
-15
-20
-20
-25
-30
Jan.
Mar.
May
July
Sept.
Nov.
Light water
CO2
T°
From
Isotopes
IPCC CO2 SCENARIOS
Socio-economic and geophysical models are
used to make projections about future
carbon dioxide (and GHG) concentrations.
IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS
SCENARIOS (SRES) SCENARIOS
The Range of Global
Temperature Projections
(IPCC)
5.8°C
1.4°C
General
Circulation
Models
Contrarians would
have you believe that
GCMs are completely
unreliable
GCM Simulations vs Observed
Temperatures
Solar &
Volcanic
Influence
Human
Influence
All
Climate is Difficult to Model
• But observed warming is consistent
with expectations
• Solar variability doesn’t explain
much of the change
• Urban heat island effect has been
taken into account!
• Models are imperfect (and always
will be) but they are essential
Very strong consensus: The
dice are loaded in favour of a
warming climate through this
century
The Range of Global
Temperature Projections
(IPCC)
5.8°C
1.4°C
What do the
models indicate
for Manitoba?
SPRING: 2080’S
Models
Changes relative to
1961-90
Warmer
SUMMER: 2080’S
Models
Changes relative to
1961-90
Warmer
FALL: 2080’S
Models
Changes relative to
1961-90
Warmer
WINTER: 2080’S
Models
Changes relative to
1961-90
Warmer
What does the
Canadian GCM
indicate for
North America?
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - March
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - April
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - May
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - June
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - July
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - August
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - September
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - October
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - November
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - December
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - January
CGCM2 A21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change - 2080s - February
IPCC
IPCC
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Health
Weather-related mortality
Infectious diseases
Air-quality respiratory illnesses
Agriculture
Climate Changes
Temperature
Precipitation
Sea Level Rise
Crop yields
Irrigation demands
Forests
Change in forest composition
Shift geographic range of forests
Forest health and productivity
Water Resources
Changes in water supply
Water quality
Increased competition for water
Coastal Areas
Erosion of beaches
Inundation of coastal lands
Costs to protect coastal communities
Species and Natural Areas
Source: EPA
Shift in ecological zones
Loss of habitat and species
Complete texts available online.
Get the overview report at:
http://www.acia.uaf.edu
Permafrost
Risk
There is really no doubt
that an enhanced
greenhouse effect will
cause a warming, unless
it is countered by some
other process
We cannot prove that the
global climate will become
warmer, nor that it will warm
by a specific amount, nor that
the warming will occur at a
specific rate, nor that more
warming will occur in some
areas than in others, nor that
there will be more climate and
weather variability and
extremes.
Science and Uncertainty
• Science never “proves” anything!
• Hypotheses are proposed and
accepted as “true” until contrary
evidence is presented
• Hypotheses are changed, or perhaps
discarded, as new information is
collected
• Ideas are never accepted without
question
• Science does not rely upon faith (or
hope)
SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY
After Moss and Schneider 2000
Problems with data
Missing components or errors in
the data
“Noise” in the data associated
with biased or incomplete
observations
Random sampling error and biases
(non-representativeness) in a
sample
Problems with models
Known processes but unknown
functional relationships or errors in
the structure of the model
Known structure but unknown or
erroneous values of some important
parameters
Known historical data and model
structure, but reasons to believe
parameters or model structure will
change over time
Problems with models
Uncertainty regarding the
predictability (e.g., chaotic or
stochastic behavior) of the system or
effect
Uncertainties introduced by
approximation techniques used to
solve a set of equations that
characterize the model
Other sources of uncertainty
Inappropriate spatial/temporal units
Inappropriateness of, or lack of
confidence in, underlying assumptions
Uncertainty due to projections of
human behavior
Contrarians would
have you believe that
the uncertainty is
greater than the risk
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Health
Weather-related mortality
Infectious diseases
Air-quality respiratory illnesses
Agriculture
Climate Changes
Temperature
Precipitation
Sea Level Rise
Crop yields
Irrigation demands
Forests
Change in forest composition
Shift geographic range of forests
Forest health and productivity
Water Resources
Changes in water supply
Water quality
Increased competition for water
Coastal Areas
Erosion of beaches
Inundation of coastal lands
Costs to protect coastal communities
Species and Natural Areas
Source: EPA
Shift in ecological zones
Loss of habitat and species
We must continue to
be vigilant, looking for
evidence, impacts and
solutions….
PARC-MB Hydro Research:
Synoptic Climatology of Climate
Variability in the Western Canadian Interior
Use paleoclimate reconstructions and
GCM output to assess impact of global
warming on synoptic climatology and
climate variability of the region.
Improve our understanding of global
warming impacts on hydrologic resources
of the region.
The Effect of Interannual Temperature
Variability on Winter Road Operations in
Southeastern Manitoba and Implications
Related to Global Warming
Danny Blair, Jeff Babb, Leslie Supnet and
Paige Harms (University of Winnipeg)
Lac Brochet
Tadoule Lake
Brochet
South Indian Lake
Gillam
Split Lake
York LandingIlford
Shamattawa
Pukatawagan
THOMPSON
Pikwitonei
Thicket
Portage
Sherridon
Oxford House
Gods River
Cross Lake
Gods Lake Narrows
Red Sucker Lake
Norway House Wasagamack
Garden Hill
St. Theresa Point
Grandville
Poplar River
Pauingassi
Bloodvein
Pine Dock
Little Grand Rapids
Manigotagan
WINNIPEG
Using Average of
Temperatures Projected
by the GCMs, in the south
of the province:
• 2020’s: Roads open 3 days
later, season 5 days
shorter
• 2050’s: Roads open 5 days
later, season 10 days
shorter
• 2080’s: Roads open 7 days
later, season two weeks
shorter
CAN WE USE BUTTERFLIES TO
MONITOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN
MANITOBA?
R. WESTWOOD
AND
D. BLAIR
CENTRE FOR FOREST
INTERDISCIPLINARY
RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF WINNIPEG
Looking for the Climate Change Signal in the Instrumental
Record from Southeastern Manitoba
Background
Discussion
Study Area
It is abundantly clear that the global climate is warming, and there is
little doubt that the warming will continue throughout this century. The
interior of North America is projected to be the site of very substantial
amounts of warming, particularly in the winter and spring months. The
warming will be associated with a wide variety of impacts, some of
which are still very uncertain, but it is quite certain that even moderate
amounts of warming will eventually generate significant changes to the
natural environment, including the distribution and vigor of climatesensitive species. For example, the thermal climate is a limiting factor
for the ranges of many butterfly species, and several studies have
confirmed that some species have been affected by short and longterm climate changes. Accordingly, Westwood and Blair are
investigating the use of butterflies as bio-indicators of climate change
in eastern Manitoba. Using a database of butterfly observations in
Manitoba dating back to 1921, and corresponding climate data, the
degree to which butterflies populations have responded to climate
variability and/or change over the last 80 years, or so, is being
assessed. Here we report on the methods used to map and extract
climate data for the study region, and we present a sample of results
for select locations.
Samples of the monthly means extracted from the interpolated
monthly means are shown in the graphs below. Shown are the March
and April means for Grid Boxes 2, 4, 7, and 11 (identified in the map
below). These two months are important to the thermally-associated
development of most butterfly species of the region, and they are also
months in which substantial warming is expected to occur in the
coming decades. Because there is such a large amount of
interannual variability in the monthly means, it is difficult to visually
determine whether or not there has been a statistically significant
amount of warming, but there does appear to be a positive trend.
Further analyses will assess these trends and their spatial coherence.
The graphs on the right show the characteristics of the 0ºC frost-free
seasons at three climate stations in, or very near, the study region.
Interestingly, the frost-free season at Sprague, near the southern limit
of the study region, clearly shows a trend towards a much longer frostfree season, but no such trend is observed at Great Falls or Indian
Bay. This obviously requires further investigation, perhaps to assess
the effects of weather station siting on the data from these locales.
Eastern Manitoba is an ideal region to assess the impact of climate
variability and change on butterflies. Importantly, the region has not
been subjected to major landscape alterations from human activity
(compared to California, for example), and the region is the northern
range for several butterfly species.
Methodology
Grid Box 11
Grid Box Means
in Graphs
Monthly mean temperature data from climate stations in eastern
Manitoba and surrounding regions were interpolated to a grid, to
generate isoline maps for the study region, and to facilitate the
extraction of climate data from points located within the region. An
Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method was used to derive an ESRI
GIS grid of the monthly mean temperatures, using the 1920-2000
prairie-wide gridded data (70.8 km resolution) supplied by Hopkinson.
The final grid IDW parameter was a power of 2 with a cell size of 0.1
by 0.1 lat/lon using a 6-point search with a maximum search distance
of 1 degree. Gridded data was not available for 2001-2003. For these
years, the original daily temperature readings collected from each of
the weather stations within and around the study area were collected
and averaged to derive monthly mean temperatures for each station.
These monthly means were then interpolated using the IDW method;
the final grid IDW parameter was a power of 5.4 with a cell size of 0.1
by 0.1 lat/lon using a 5-point search with a maximum search distance
of 2.5 degrees. Sixty centroids from the gridded data arrays were used
as the locations for the climatic means within the study area. The 60
points were grouped into 4-point clusters, and averages were
calculated for each cluster. Thus, these cluster averages represent
monthly means for 0.48 by 0.48 degree footprints (these are called
Grid Boxes in the accompanying charts). These means were graphed
to display long-term variations of monthly mean temperatures for the
1920-2003 study period. Non-gridded data is also being used, for
example, in the assessment of trends in the frost-free season within
the region.
However, the paucity of climate stations in the region, the brevity of
many of their records, and the frequency with which they are
discontinuous, are each major hindrances. Nevertheless, with
properly constrained interpolation techniques, such as those utilized in
the GIS component of this study, these hindrances can largely be
overcome, thereby presenting opportunities to assess the ways that
butterflies have been affected by the region’s thermal history. This will
then present us with opportunities to project how butterflies are likely
to be affected by the future climate, and opportunities to use butterflies
as indicators of the presence and severity of climate change.
Acknowledgements
Support for this project was provided by the Manitoba Climate Change
Action Fund, the Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate
(NRCAN), Manitoba’s CareerStart Program, and the University of
Winnipeg. Climate data was provided by Environment Canada.
Special thanks go to Ron Hopkinson.
Timsic, S.1, Wilcox, M.1, Blair, D.1, Westwood, R.2, Ryan, K.3
1
3
Department of Geography, University of Winnipeg, 2 Department of Biology, University of Winnipeg
Department of Entomology, University of Manitoba
LONG-TERM VARIATION IN THE FROST-FREE
SEASON: SPRAGUE, MANITOBA
SLAVE RIVER DELTA FIELD WORK
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
200
120
150
100
100
50
0
1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Year AD
Sample Depth
May-September Precipitation (mm)
300
ISOSTORM!
What can we do?
Get involved, and do
something to reduce
your “footprint on the
atmosphere”
240
Megatonne
Reduction
Get your information
from appropriate
sources….and be
appropriately critical
http://www.climatechangeconnection.org
Get the book for free online at:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate
Contrarians would
have you believe that
global warming is a
conspiracy
perpetrated by the
world’s scientists
There is already
enough uncertainty!
It is irresponsible to
manufacture
uncertainty for
political, financial or
personal benefit
In Conclusion:
There is much uncertainty associated with the
global warming issue.
Uncertainty” refers to a wide range of levels of
knowing….from ‘speculation’ to ‘virtually
certain’.
We are very certain that the global climate will
continue to warm throughout this century.
We are very certain that global warming will
be associated with undesirable changes.
Finally:
We are very certain that global warming can
be slowed down and reduced if we drastically
reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In Canada, we have yet to make this a priority
issue, individually or collectively.
Even with the current political climate in the
United States, it isn’t too late to take action.
Our motivation to convert talk into action is
obvious…..
Pictures of children, grandchildren, godchildren of some of my friends.
Pictures removed
Danny Blair, Department of Geography
PARC-MB Hydro Climate Change Research Professor
University of Winnipeg