Transcript Launch Vehicle Failure Mode Database AST Research and

Launch Vehicle
Failure Mode
Database
AST Research and
Development Project
Presented to: COMSTAC RLV Working Group
By: Nickolas Demidovich
Date: May 17, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
Overview
• Historical Database Tasking
• Phase 1
• Phase 2
• Status
• Findings to date
• Overall
• Trends
• Scope of Phase 2
• Path Forward
• Questions/Discussion
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Historical Database
Description of Project:
AST should compile and maintain a database of historical data on failures and
reliability of rocket-powered vehicles. An exhaustive database would include
not only percentage reliability and number of vehicles, but type and class of
vehicle and, to the extent possible, the results of the failure analysis. The
ultimate goal is to provide the industry with insight into what fails and why.
• Phase 1 orbital space launch vehicles
• Phase 2 available data on suborbital rocket powered (non-missile)
vehicles (X-15 and others)
Schedule
Study Period: November 2006 –June 2007
Draft Report: Aug 2007
Briefing: Next COMSTAC
Goal:
Enhance Safety
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Status of Phase 1
• Historical Database on ELVs was created using
open-source documentation on known failures
• Database is Not proprietary
• Database is Not ITAR controlled
• Database is Preliminary
• Timeframe: 1957-2007
• 28 percent of all launch failures over entire period had unknown
failures
• Early Soviet (late 50’s and 60’s) data not publicly available
• “Failure” is as defined in FAA/AST report Guide
to Probability of Failure Analysis for New
Expendable Launch Vehicles:
“An in-flight failure occurs when a launch vehicle does not complete
any phase of normal flight.”
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Status of Phase 1
• Launch vehicle Database Sources
• Periodicals (i.e. Satellite News Digest, Jane’s Space
Directory etc)
• Books (i.e.; Encyclopedia Astronautica, Spaceflight
and Rocketry, International Reference Guide to Space
Launch Systems, etc)
• Futron Corporation database from 1957
• Electronic Library of Space Activity (ELSA)
• Press releases
• Cross checked data base with internet sites
• USAF, NASA , etc
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Known Cause of ELV Launch Failures Worldwide
by Vehicle Subsystem 1957- May 2007
Propulsion
51%
Propulsion anomalies
are salient failure
mode historically
Guidance and
navigation systems
20%
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Mechanical flight Communications
controls
1%
<1%
Flight safety
2%
Pneumatics and
hydraulics
4%
Software and
computing systems
4%
Operational
ordnance
5%
Structures
5%
Electrical systems
8%
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Known Cause of Launch Failures Worldwide by
Vehicle Subsystem 1980-May 2007
Propulsion
54%
Propulsion anomalies
remain salient
failure mode to date
Guidance and
navigation systems
13%
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Pneumatics and
hydraulics
3%
\
Operational
ordnance
6%
Structures
6%
Electrical systems
9%
Software and
computing systems
9%
Federal Aviation
Administration
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ELV Launch Failures Relative to
Total Launches
100%
140
90%
120
80%
100
70%
60%
80
50%
60
40%
Percentage Failed
Number of Launches
US &
Soviet
Early
Launches
30%
40
Initial Launches
By New Entrants
20
20%
10%
0%
0
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
All Launches
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
1977
1981
1985
Failed Launches
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
Percent Failed
Federal Aviation
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Percentage of Failed ELV Launches
by Country and Decade
Country
1950s
China
Europe
India
Japan
Rest of World
Russia
USA
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
36.9%
66.1%
Total Failure
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Percentage
Since 1957
N/A
41.7% 4.2% 24.5% 4.9%
15.2%
40.0% 40.0% 25.8% 5.1% 3.0%
8.5%
N/A 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% 25.0%
42.9%
100.0% 22.2% 0.0% 20.0% 22.2%
16.4%
0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 33.3%
35.7%
19.2% 2.9% 3.4% 6.2% 6.2%
5.3%
15.0% 5.4% 9.4% 7.0% 3.8%
9.6%
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Total Failure
Percentage
Since 1980
11.6%
5.8%
40.0%
9.4%
50.0%
4.2%
6.1%
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Summary of Findings to Date - Trends
• 39 percent occur of failures occur during operation
of the final stage
• US vehicles have improved in this regard since 1990s
• Nations generally have early surge in failure
• Then decline and level off
• Propulsion anomalies have been and continue to
cause most known failures in ELV launches
• All nations
• Liquid, solid and combination
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Federal Aviation
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Summary of Findings to Date - Trends
• Guidance and navigation have historically been
second leading cause of failure
• Have dropped over time
• Software and computing systems are a growing
concern
• 8% of failures from 1990-1999
• 21% of failures since 1999
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
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Scope of phase 2
• Historical database on failures of rocketpowered aircraft currently being scoped
• Database to focus on
•
•
•
•
Post-World War II U.S. government and commercial
rocket-powered aircraft (such as X-planes, etc.)
Other Western post-World War II rocket-powered aircraft
(such as French and British jets with auxiliary rocket engines)
Post-World War II Soviet rocket-powered aircraft
World War II and earlier projects (German ME 163, etc.)
• Research to include NASA logs and other
primary sources
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Path Forward
• Updating ELV Database as launches occur
• Historical Database of rocket powered lifting
bodies in progress
• Scoping for Relevance
• Will update summary and database by next
COMSTAC
• Provides opportunity for RLV community to
learn from anomalies in ELVs and rocketpowered lifting bodies
COMSTAC RLV Working Group May 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
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