Transcript Document 7338909

Status
of
NERON/HCN-M
for
The Committee for
Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services (CCAMS)
John Hahn
NWS Office of Science and Technology
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General Overview –
Program Description
• HCN-M evolved from the former NERON (NOAA
Environmental Real Time Observing Network Program).
– NERON was redirected by the NEP to modernize the Historical
Climate Network (HCN-M)
• HCN-M will sustain the Nation’s regional temperature and
precipitation climate record
– Modernize 1,000 of the existing 1,221 HCN stations to collect
temperature and precipitation data through automation
– Provide for expansion capacity to collect other data sets (e.g.,
National Integrated Drought Information System, NIDIS, dataset)
– Address the gaps in the HCN including: data quality, data
availability, and aging technology
• The primary requirement for the HCN is to produce quality climate
observations for sustaining the nation’s regional climate record in
support of monitoring and assessment of the surface climate.
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General Overview –
HCN Today
Current Capabilities
• The HCN is an NWS operated subnetwork of COOP stations
– Network created to compile data suitable for
detecting and monitoring regional climate
variability
– Stations must have >80 years of continuous
data record with the majority having >100 years
– 1,221 stations identified by NCDC
• Observations
– Daily observations of Temperature and
Precipitation recorded manually by volunteers
– NCDC publishes data within 30-90 days
• Uses
– Climate assessments, state of the climate
reports, and commercial sector
– Specialized scientific analyses
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Gaps
• Data quality
– Attrition of current volunteers 1
– Manual process susceptible to human errors
in observing and documentation1
– Significant number of stations no longer meet
siting requirements due to overgrowth and
urbanization 2
• Data availability
– Due to manual process, not available for up to
90 days1
• Technology
– Aging equipment and maintenance issues 1
– Not expandable to cost effectively add new
sensors 1
National Research Council. 1998. Toward a New National Weather Service. Future of the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network.
Washington, D.C. pp. 12-18
Christopher A. Davey and Roger A. Pielke Sr.. 2005: *Microclimate Exposures of Surface-Based Weather Stations: Implications For The Assessment
of Long-Term Temperature Trends.* /Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society/: Vol. 86, No. 4, pp. 497–504
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General Overview –
Key Customers and Stakeholders
• Internal
– NCDC climate record archive
– OAR analyses and NIDIS Project
– NWS climate products and services
• External
– U.S. Departments Agriculture and Interior (Stakeholders)
– Private, Public and Academic members of the weather
enterprise communities
• State climatologists
• Consulting meteorologists and climatologists
• Design standards community (e.g., engineering,
construction, energy)
• Water resource managers
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General Overview –
Draft Locations for HCN-M Sites
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Overview of Project
• Project will follow the OSIP and NOAA KDP processes as a
Major Project.
• Level 1 Requirements Document defines the scope.
– Developed through collaboration between NESDIS/NCDC,
NWS/OCWWS, OOS and OS&T.
– Delivered to NOSC for review and comment.
• Climate is the focus (climate requirements are primary)
• Input from all primary stakeholders is required for success
– Climate Community in NOAA (NCDC, CPC, OCWWS/CSD)
– Regions
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Level 1 Requirements
Document (Final Draft)
• Level 1 document distributed to NOSC for review on
September 28, 2007
– HCN-M consists of 1000 sites for the purpose of automation of
air temperature and precipitation observations and transmittal
– 5 minute collections of temperature (+/- 1 deg) & precipitation
(+/- .02 in)
– Minimum daily transmittal of data
– Design for expansion (snow, soil moisture, etc.)
– Raw data distributed to MADIS and NCDC
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Performance Metric
•
The performance of HCN-M will be measured by the improvement in the
percentage of the explained variance of both regional temperature and
precipitation.
•
The target is to have 95% variance explained for temperature and
precipitation with the completion of ~1,000 sites. The following table
demonstrates the relationship between the number of sites and the
expected improvement in the performance measures.
Number of Stations
Determine Regional Explained Variance (%) for annual average
surface air temperature using modernized USHCN and USCRN
stations. (Cumulative Total %)
Determine Regional Explained Variance (%) for annual average
precipitation using the modernized USHCN and USCRN stations.
(Cumulative Total %)
293
646
1000
42
86
95
41
73
95
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Project Schedule
Dev O&M Plan
Dev Transition Strategy
Completion
Dev Acquisition Plan
Stage 4: Acquisition Plan
Site Surveys
Acquisition Strategy
System Design
Cost Benefit Analysis
Stage 3: Recommend Solution
Initiate Site Surveys
Develop RFI
Establish IWT
Develop ConOps
Project Planning Documents
Stage 2: Alternatives & Develop Plan
Stage 1:
Identify Need
Jan 07
OSIP Gate 1
Complete
Jan 08
OSIP Gate 2
Complete
Sep 08
OSIP Gate 3
Complete
Sep 09
OSIP Gate 4
Complete
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Next Steps
– Continue the OSIP process and KDP Gate reviews
• KDP 2 January 2008
• KDP 3 September 2008
– Develop Acquisitions Strategy and Plan for Site
Surveys
• Work with SCC/RCCs to investigate their conducting site
surveys and compiling meta data
– Finalize the Integrated Work Team
– Conduct Risk Assessment and develop Risk
Management Plan
– Develop WBS, Project Milestones and Schedule for
FY08
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