Transcript H1A: Understand How Solar Disturbances Propagate to Earth Required Understanding

NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
H1A: Understand How Solar Disturbances Propagate to Earth
Phase 2005-2015, Understand our Home in Space
Required Understanding
Radial
Evolution
of 3D CME
structure
CME –CME & CME-solar
wind coupling
Radial profiles
of CME velocity
from Sun to
Earth
True angular extent
of CMEs and shocks
Coronal and IP Drag force
Correspondence
between near-Sun and
near-Earth CME
substructures
Radial evolution of
shock standoff distance
& geometry
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
Coronagraph/heliospheric imager, radioburst measurements of shock speed &
strength from Sun to Earth
Density, temperature and magnetic
field structure of solar wind &
CMEs within the first 30 Rs
In situ field & particle measurements of
CME structure at several radial locations
Use all available density, temperature
and magnetic field info from the Sun
to the magnetopause to model Sun-toEarth CME evolution
Simultaneous imaging &
in situ CME observations
Implementation Phase 1: 2005-2015
Existing Assets
ACE, Cluster, SoHO,
Wind -CME & shock
parameters, near-Earth SW/IMF
Enabling
STP Program
STEREO
imaging and in situ CME observations
from Sun to Earth, 3D CME structure
LWS Program
Contributing
Flagship mission
Solar Probe
near-Sun CME structure
LWS mission
INNER HELIOSPHERIC
SENTINELS
CME radial evolution
Enabling
shocks
Solar Source of CMEs
Contributing
Potential Explorer
LWS/TR&T
MHD models of CME propagation &
comparison with observations.
Model fast CMEs
SIRA -- Image particle acceleration site in
SDO
Enabling
Enabling
NASA or Other Agencies
STP Program
MMS
Near-Earth SW/IMF
L1 Monitor, coronagraph - solar
wind conditions
Theory Program
Develop theory of particle
acceleration by CME-driven shocks
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
H1B: Identify how space weather effects are produced in geospace
Phase 2005-2015, Understand our Home in Space
Targeted Understanding
Relative importance of internal and
external drivers
Heavy ion
influence on
magnetospheri
c processes
Radiation
belts: local or
diffusive
source?
Magnetic coupling and
energy release
(reconnection)
Coupling between
near-Earth particles
and fields
Low and midlatitude
electrodynamics
Influence from above and below on the
upper atmosphere
Hemispheric IT asymmetries
Ionospherethermosphere cross
scale coupling
Data assimilation in
Coordinated/simultaneous ionosphereEnabling Capabilities & Measurements
geospace modeling
thermosphere measurements
Continuous solar and upstream solar
wind measurements
Inner magnetosphere in situ and
Coupled global geospace modeling
remote sensing measurements
tools
Multipoint measurements in
connected regions of geospace
Multipoint measurements near a
Radial alignment of magnetotail
reconnection site
measurements
Substorm Onsets (nominally
via Auroral imaging)
Implementation Phase 1: 2005-2015
Existing Assets Enabling
ACE, Cluster, IMAGE,
FAST, Polar, TIMED
STP Program Enabling
GEC, MMS
Contributing
Rocket Campaigns:
IT coupling, MI coupling
STP Program
STEREO
provides quantitative link between in
situ and remote sensing of CMEs
LWS Program Enabling
ITSP+ITImager, RBSP
SDO
Contributing
Partnerships
L1 Monitor, ORBITALS,
RAVENS
Explorer Program
AIM, CNOFS, THEMIS,
TWINS
ITM Waves, SECEP
Theory Program:
IT coupling, RB physics,
reconnection
Modeling
Advancements:
Geospace General
Circulation Model
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
H1C: Identify the impacts of solar variability on Earth’s atmosphere
Phase 2005-2015, Understand our Home in Space
Temporal and spectral
variability of solar ionizing
and dissociating irradiance
Temporal, spectral, and spatial
variability of solar energetic
particle inputs
Distinguish and identify the
coupling between
anthropogenic and natural
mechanisms
Required Understanding Tidal, planetary, and
Composition
changes
resulting
from solar
energy
deposition
Radiative cooling in
response to variable
energy deposition
Effect of solar
variability on Neutral
& plasma dynamics,
structure, & circulation
gravity wave
generation, modulation,
and coupling
Parameterizations of
turbulence and wave
effects in GCMs
Horizontal and vertical energy and constituent
transport
Do impacts of solar variability affect all layers
of the atmosphere?
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
Spectral, spatial, and temporal
variation of photon and energetic
particle inputs over a solar cycle
Global density, composition,
temperature, and winds: surface 650 km? over a solar cycle
Global imaging of the ITM
Energy redistribution by
tides, gravity and
planetary waves and
turbulence
First principles data-assimilating
models for predicting atmospheric
structure and composition and their
response to varying energy inputs
Long term calibrated observations of
changes in different atmospheric
layers
Implementation Phase 1: 2005-2015
Existing Assets
IMAGE, TIMED - changes in
mesospheric temperature / thermospheric
density
Enabling
LWS Program
ITSP + ITImaging, GEC
Enabling
Explorer Program
AIM - Polar mesospheric clouds
Theory Program:
Wave interactions and Coupling
Climate change mechanisms
CNOFS - changes in
thermsopheric densities
Model Development:
Whole Atmosphere GCM
Enabling
Partnerships
DMSP, L1 Monitor,
NPOESS
Contributing
LWS Program
SDO
UV input into system
Enabling
Candidate Explorers
ITMWaves, SECEP
Rocket Campaigns:
Energy inputs, Atm. coupling
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NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap
H1D: Discover How Space Plasmas and Planetary Environments Interact
Phase 2005-2015, Understand our Home in Space
Required Understanding
Energy
flow
between
plasma and
neutrals
Effects of planetary magnetic field
geometry on energy and momentum
transfer
Morphology of ionospheric current
systems
Roles of varying
atmospheric chemistry
on heat, momentum,
and energy transfer
between atmospheric
regions.
Tidal, planetary, and gravity wave
generation,modulation, and
coupling.
Variability of energetic particle
precipitation patterns
Plasma &
neutral
dynamics,
structure,
circulation,
&
instabilities
Solar Wind Interactions
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
Constellations of satellites in
complementary orbits to resolve
space-time ambiguities and enable
predictive models
Simultaneous 3D plasma and neutral
drift measurements
Measurements of 3D particle
distribution functions from thermal to
tens of MeV
Existing Assets
CNOFS, IMAGE, TIMED,
AIM, SDO
Rocket Campaigns
To provide high resolution,
coordinated sampling of key
mesospheric and thermospheric
regions
Contributing
Partnerships
L1 Monitor
Tomographic and occultation studies to
quantify large-scale motions of plasmas
and neutrals
Empirical and first-principles models for
cause and effect based prediction
Measure composition, temperature and
winds of planetary upper atmospheres
Implementation Phase 1: 2005-2015
Enabling
STP Program
GEC
To understand the energy exchange
processes in the current layer at the top of
the atmosphere
ITM Waves
To understand sources of ionospheric structure, and
responses to geomagnetic storms and gravity waves
Contributing
Enabling
LWS Program
ITSP+ITImager
To understand sources of ionospheric
structure, and responses to geomagnetic
storms, EUV radiation
Theory Program
Potential Explorer
Contributing
To include cross-scale coupling
processes, and effects at the upper and
lower boundaries of the atmosphere of
the Earth and Mars
Model Development
Partnerships
Mars Aeronomy, MSL, MTO
Mars L1 Monitor
To include assimilation for nowcasting
and forecasting
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H2A: Identify Precursors of Important Solar Disturbances
Phase 2015-2025, Understand our Home in Space
Targeted Understanding
Buildup of energy & helicity in
coronal magnetic fields
Relationship between
CME shocks, flare/
CME current sheets and
Solar Energetic Particles
(SEPs)
Evolution of global
solar magnetic field
Coronal vector magnetic
field evolution and
subsurface field evolution
Near-Sun in situ measurements of
charged particle distribution,
composition, waves & fields;
neutrons, hard X-rays & gamma
rays
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
UV Spectroscopic determination of
Pre/Post-shock density, speed,
compression; ion/electron velocity
distributions, charge states,
abundances; Alfven speed, magnetic
field, reconnection rates in CME
shocks, flares, current sheets
On-Disk UV/EUV
Spectrographic imaging
for flow velocities, energy
release signatures; Disk
Magnetograph for
magnetic field topology
and evolution
Implementation Phase 2: 2015-2025
Existing Assets
SDO for global
magnetic field and
active region
measurements,
ITSP, RBSP
Relationship
between eruptive
filaments, active
regions, CMEs,
and SEPs
Enabling
Enabling Flagship Mission
Solar Probe
for near-Sun in situ
observations
LWS
CME magnetic field
orientation
Relationship between global
field and solar disturbances
Radio burst
measurements
of near-Sun
CME shocks
CME magnetic
field evolution
behind the disk
Whether disturbance
is geoeffective
Visible light Coronagraph/
Polarimeter for electron density
structure and evolution
Contributing
LWS
Contributing
Enabling
SHIELDS for tracking
SIRA to characterize CME
disk features behind the limb
STP Program
DOPPLER to identify
RAM to identify
disk signatures of CME,
flare, SEP initiation,
SEPP/NE to characterize
sources of CMEs
disk signatures of
CME, flare, SEP
initiation, GEC
impacts
shocks
Contributing
Partnership
Solar Orbiter for
near-Sun in situ
observations
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H2B: Quantify mechanisms & processes required for geospace forecasting
Phase 2015-2025, Understand Our home in Space
Targeted Understanding
Ionospheric outflow
causes and effects
Near-Earth
plasma loss
mechanisms
Solar wind drivers of
radiation belt dynamics
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
Multi-angle remote sensing of
inner magnetosphere
Constellation of satellites across
the magnetopause
Continuous solar and upstream
solar wind measurements
Coordinated/simultaneous
measurements in connected
regions of geospace
Role of gravity
waves in I-T physics
Equatorial ionosphere-atmosphere
coupling
Auroral
acceleration
physics
High latitude
electrodynamics
Multi-angle remote sensing of
ionosphere-thermosphere
Hemispheric
auroral
asymmetries
Global dynamic
magnetospheric
topology
Data assimilation
throughout geospace
Validation and improvement of
global geospace modeling tools
Constellation throughout the
magnetotail
Conjugate auroral
imaging
Implementation Phase 2: 2015-2025
Exisiting Assets
Enabling
GEC, ITSP, MMS, RBSP,
ITSP, SDO, Sentinels
STP Program
MagCon
Contributing
?? Program
AMS, Dayside Boundary
Con.
Theory advancements:
Particle acceleration, chaotic processes
Modeling Advancements:
Validation/verification of GGCM
Enabling
?? Program
GEMINI
Rocket Campaigns:
Conjugate/interhemispheric studies
Explorer Candidates
ITMW, Conjugate auroral
imagers, Tropical ITM
Coupler, SECEP
NASA or Other
Agencies
L1 Monitor, Coronagraph
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H2C: Integrate Solar Variability Effects into Earth Climate Models
(joint with Earth Science) – Phase 2015-2025, Understand Our Home in Space
Interactions among reactive
species in middle atmosphere
in response to solar variability
Development, persistence, and
decay of stratospheric
circulation anomalies
Required Understanding
Downward propagation
of circulation anomalies
into troposphere
UV effects on ecosystems
Variations and secular
changes in stratospheric and
tropospheric polar vortex
Upward propagation of climate variability into
middle and upper atmosphere, with consequent
effects on circulation and wave dynamics
Changes in reactive and GH gases
Changes in surface energy budget
Variations in clouds, temperatures,
the hydrologic cycle, and winds
Long term Climate
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
Continuous observations of highfrequency responses of atmospheric
composition to varying solar input
Vertical profiling of chemical
variations in the middle atmosphere
Rocket Campaigns:
Polar Night,
Calibration/Validation,
Test flights
Explorer Candidate
Profiling temperature
and composition
Stratosphere-troposphere coupling
in polar vortex?
Highly-resolved budgets of surface
emissions of radiatively-active gases
Accurately-calibrated
planetary albedo at high
spatial and spectral resolution
Continued observations of the highfrequency variability of surface and
tropospheric climate
Implementation Phase 2: 2015-2025
Model Development:
Enabling
SECEP, ITMWaves
L1 and L2 for continuous global obs
(includes SW/IMF irradiance
monitor)
Whole Atmosphere GCM with
coupled land, oceans, and
chemistry
Theory Programs:
Radiation, Hydrology, and Life;
EPP and clouds;
Strat-trop coupling
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H2D: Determine how magnetic fields, solar wind and irradiance affect the habitability
of solar system bodies - Phase 2015-2025, Understand Our Home in Space
Targeted Understanding
Quantitative drivers of the
geospace environment
Impacts of
solar
variability
on planetary
atmospheres
and surfaces
Extremes of the variable
radiation environments at
solar system bodies
Photochemistry
of planetary
atmospheres
Magnetosphere - atmosphere –
surface coupling
Energy redistribution by
tides, gravity and
planetary waves and
turbulence
Dust environments of
planetary bodies
How magnetospheres evolve
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
Spectral, spatial, and temporal
variation of photon and energetic
particle inputs to planetary
atmospheres
Density, composition, temperature,
and winds: surface through
thermosphere for planetary bodies
Ionosphere / Magnetosphere Imaging
Observations of near sun
environment
Combined debris disk and
3-d MHD models
Implementation Phase 2: 2015-2025
Solar Probe, RBSP Plasma physics
of near-star environments
Existing Assets
MSL, Spitzer,
Contributing
Strategic mission
Venus Aeronomy Probe
(VAP),
Space Physics Package
First principles data-assimilating
models for planetary bodies which
describe atmospheric structure and
composition and their response to
varying energy inputs
Enabling
Partnerships
Mars Aeronomy Probe
(MAP), Titan Explorer
(TE), Lunar Solar Wind
History Experiment
Europa Mission
Explorer Candidate
Geospace System
Response Imager
(GSRI),
ITM Waves
Theory Program:
Coupling in planetary atm.
Model Development:
Planetary Whole Atmosphere GCM
Combined disk/plasma models
Rocket Campaigns:
Coupling
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H3A/B: Provide scientific basis for continuous forecasting of conditions
throughout the solar system - Phase 2025-beyond, Understand Our Home in Space
Targeted Understanding
Understand the system
dynamics throughout
geospace
Complete coverage of
I-T system
Existing Assets:
MagCon, AMS, ITM-Waves,
GEMINI, Dayside Boundary Con.
Rocket Campaigns:
Regular launches and long-duration
balloons
Understand the system
nonlinearities
throughout geospace
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
Complete coverage of inner
magnetosphere
Complete coverage of
dayside boundaries
Understand the system
coupling throughout
geospace
Continuous solar and upstream
solar wind measurements
Coordinated/simultaneous
measurements in connected
regions of geospace
Mature data assimilation
techniques
Robust, mature, and fast global
geospace modeling tools
Complete coverage of
magnetotail
Conjugate auroral
imaging
Implementation Phase 3: 2025-2035
New Strategic
Missions:
IMC, ITC
Theory advancements:
New Explorer Missions:
System nonliearities and feedbacks
Conjugate auroral imagers, ACE
replacement
Modeling Advancements:
Operational transition of GGCMs
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H3C: Forecast Climate Change (joint with Earth Science)
Phase 2025-beyond, Understand Our Home in Space
Required Understanding
Interactions of solar photons
and energetic particles with
atmospheric composition
Propagation of solar photons
throughout atmosphere and
interaction with clouds and aerosol
Changes in spectral (e.g., UV)
and directional (direct vs
diffuse) characteristics of solar
radiation at surface
Responses of surface energy
partition and emissions of
radiatively-active gases
Quantitative attribution of
climate variations to solar vs
internal forcing
Global electrodynamic circuit
Interactions among
atmospheric radiation,
composition, structure,
hydrologic cycle, and
clouds
Upward propagation of climate changes via
waves and mean flows
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
Continuing global observations of the
sun, geospace, and Earth’s climate
Whole Earth system data assimilation
including life, chemistry, oceans, land,
the atmosphere to 650 km
Prediction of future
climate change with
well-tested coupled
models that include
solar interactions
Systematic and continuing model
evaluation using ongoing
observations
Solar subsurface and deep
interior convective flows to
understand relationship
between dynamo,
flows, solar cycle
Implementation Phase 3: 2025-beyond
Model Development:
New Explorer Missions:
Active atmospheric profiling for chemistry and structure
Detailed characterization of changing hydrologic cycle?
Prediction of external and internal
forcing and response
Enabling
Solar Polar Imager
TITMC, L1 Monitor
(irradiance, particles)
SECEP, SHIELDS
Contributing
AAMP
New Partnership Missions:
Global Alt. distribution Temperature / Composition monitor
H3D: Determine how stellar activity and plasmas affect planetary formation and evolution
that govern habitability through time - Phase 2025-beyond, Understand Our Home in Space
Required Understanding
What
determines
the
habitability
of planets
Temporal and spectral
variability of solar ionizing
and dissociating irradiance
Temporal, spectral, and spatial
variability of solar energetic
particle inputs
What are the
impacts of
solar
variability on
planetary
atmospheres?
Energy redistribution by
tides, gravity and
Composition
Evolution of
planetary
waves and Planetary systems
changes
turbulence
resulting
from proto-planetary
from solar
debris disks
energy
deposition Magnetospheric – atmospheric –
surface coupling
Enabling Capabilities & Measurements
Observational and predictive
Operational first principles datacapability for spectral, spatial, and
Global density, composition,
assimilating
models for planetary
temporal variation of photon and
temperature, and winds: surface atmospheres
which
predict atmospheric
energetic particle inputs over short
thermosphere for planetary bodies
structure and composition and their
and long time scales
response to varying energy inputs
Observations of solar cycles on
other Sun-like stars to understand
Combined debris disk and
Observations of debris
Observations of
relationship of
3-d MHD models
disks around other stars
momentum transfer to
rotation rate & dynamo
planetary magnetospheres
JPO
Transfer of momentum between
rotating magnetized bodies and their
surrounding plasmas
Existing Assets:
ITM-Waves
Rocket Campaigns:
Implementation
Phase 3: 2025-2035
Strategic missions
Enabling
Titan Explorer (TE)
Space Interferometry Mission
(SIM), Terrestrial Planet
Finder (TPF), the James
Webb Space Telescope
(JWST),
Stellar Imager
Explorer Candidate
GSRI
Theory Program:
Coupling in planetary atm.
Theory Program:
Properties of dusty plasmas
Model Development:
Operational Planetary Whole
Atmosphere GCM
Model Development:
Combined disk/plasma models
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