Transcript Design and Execution of the 30-year NCEP CFS T382L64 Global eanalysis

Design and Execution of the 30-year NCEP
CFSRR
T382L64 Global Reanalysis
and
T126L64 Seasonal Reforecast Project
(1979-2008)
Suru Saha and Hua-Lu Pan, EMC/NCEP
With Input from
Stephen Lord, Mark Iredell, Shrinivas Moorthi,
David Behringer, Ken Mitchell, Bob Kistler,
Jack Woollen, Huug van den Dool, Catherine Thiaw and many others
Updated : 15 Jan 2008
•CFSRR Advisory Board Members
Chair: Jeff Anderson (NCAR)
•Saki Uppala (ECMWF)
• Gabriel Lau (GFDL/NOAA)
•Eric Wood (U Princeton)
• Gil Compo (CDC/NOAA)
• Mark Serreze (U Colorado)
•Rick Rosen (CPO/NOAA)
•Huug van den Dool (CPC/NCEP)
•Jim Carton (U Maryland)
•Lars Peter Riishojgaard (JCSDA/NCEP)
For a new Climate Forecast System (CFS) implementation
Two essential components:
A new Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, seaice and land over
the 31-year period (1979-2009) is required to provide consistent
initial conditions for:
A complete Reforecast of the new CFS over the 28-year period
(1982-2009), in order to provide stable calibration and skill
estimates of the new system, for operational seasonal
prediction at NCEP
For a new CFS implementation (contd)
1. Analysis Systems :
Operational GDAS:
Atmospheric (GADAS)-GSI
Ocean-ice (GODAS) and
Land (GLDAS)
2. Atmospheric Model :
Operational GFS
3. Ocean Model :
New MOM4 Ocean
4. Land Model :
Operational Noah Land Model
5. Sea Ice Model:
New Sea Ice Model
An upgrade to the coupled atmosphere-ocean-seaice-land
NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is being planned for 2010.
This upgrade involves changes to all components of the CFS, namely:
• improvements to the data assimilation of the atmosphere with the new
NCEP Gridded Statistical Interpolation Scheme (GSI) and major
improvements to the physics and dynamics of operational NCEP Global
Forecast System (GFS)
• improvements to the data assimilation of the ocean and ice with the
NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System, (GODAS) and a new
GFDL MOM4 Ocean Model
• improvements to the data assimilation of the land with the NCEP
Global Land Data Assimilation System, (GLDAS) and a new NCEP
Noah Land model
For a new CFS implementation (contd)
1. An atmosphere at high horizontal resolution (spectral
T382, ~38 km) and high vertical resolution (64 sigmapressure hybrid levels)
2. An interactive ocean with 40 levels in the vertical, to a
depth of 4737 m, and high horizontal resolution of 0.25
degree at the tropics, tapering to a global resolution of
0.5 degree northwards and southwards of 10N and 10S
respectively
3. An interactive sea-ice model
4. An interactive land model with 4 soil levels
There are three main differences with the earlier two NCEP
Global Reanalysis efforts:
• Much higher horizontal and vertical resolution (T382L64) of the
atmosphere (earlier efforts were made with T62L28 resolution)
•
The guess forecast will be generated from a coupled atmosphere – ocean
– seaice - land system
•
Radiance measurements from the historical satellites will be assimilated
in this Reanalysis
To conduct a Reanalysis with the atmosphere, ocean, seaice and land coupled
to each other will be a novelty, and will hopefully address important issues,
such as the correlations between sea surface temperatures and
precipitation in the global tropics, etc.
UPGRADES TO THE ATMOSHERIC MODEL
• Hybrid vertical coordinate (sigma-pressure)
• Noah Land Model : 4 soil levels. Improved treatment of snow
and frozen soil
• Sea Ice Model : Fractional ice cover and depth allowed
• Sub grid scale mountain blocking
• Reduced vertical diffusion
• RRTM long wave radiation
• ESMF (3.0)
UPGRADES TO THE ATMOSHERIC MODEL
• Enthalpy
• AER RRTM Shortwave Radiation
• New Aerosol Treatment
• Inclusion of historical CO2, solar cycle and volcanic aerosols
6 Simultaneous Streams
•
•
•
•
•
•
Jan 1979 – Dec 1985
7 years
Nov 1985 – Feb 1989
3 years
Jan 1989 – Feb 1994
5 years
Jan 1994 – Dec 1998
5 years
Apr 1998 – Dec 2004
6 years
Apr 2004 – Dec 2009
5 years
Overlap for ocean and land spin ups
Reanalysis to cover 31 years (1979-2009)
ONE DAY OF REANALYSIS
12Z GSI
18Z GSI
0Z GSI
6Z GSI
0Z GODAS
6Z GODAS
0Z GLDAS
12Z GODAS
18Z GODAS
9-hr coupled T382L64 forecast guess (GFS + MOM4 + Noah)
1 Jan 0Z
2 Jan 0Z
3 Jan 0Z
4 Jan 0Z
5 Jan 0Z
5-day T126L64 coupled forecast ( GFS + MOM4 + Noah )
ONE DAY OF REANALYSIS
• Atmospheric T382L64 (GSI) Analysis at 0,6,12 and 18Z, using
radiance data from satellites, as well as all conventional data
• Ocean and Sea Ice Analysis (GODAS) at 0,6,12 and 18Z
• From each of the 4 cycles, a 9-hour coupled guess forecast (GFS at
T382L64) is made with hourly coupling to the ocean (MOM4 at 1/4o
equatorial, 1/2o global)
• Land (GLDAS) Analysis using observed precipitation with Noah
Land Model at 0Z
• Coupled 5-day forecast from initial conditions from every 0Z
cycle, will be made with the T126L64 GFS with hourly coupling to
the ocean (MOM4 at 1/4o equatorial, 1/2o global) for sanity check.
T382L64 CFS REANALYSIS AND 5-day T126L64 FORECASTS
IBM Power 5
Approximately 7 days of T382L64
Reanalysis, including a 5-day
T126L64 forecast every cycle, for
each of the 6 simultaneous streams
40 CFSR days in 1 calendar day
with 82 nodes
Will take 1 calendar year
to complete 34 years
(on HAZE upgrade)
Total Disk Space
104 TB
Total Mass Store (HPSS) Space
1.5 PB
Collaborators
• NOAA/CPC is actively involved in the
monitoring of the Reanalysis
• NOAA/NCDC is actively involved in the
design of the data distribution of the
Reanalysis
37 Pressure (hPa) Levels: pgb, egy and diab (atmosphere)
1000 975 950 925 900 875 850 825 800 775 750 700 650 600 550 500
450 400 350 300 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 70 50 30 20 10 7 5 3 2
1
40 Levels (depth in meters): ocn (ocean)
4478 3972 3483 3016 2579 2174 1807 1479 1193 949 747 584 459 366
303 262 238 225 215 205 195 185 175 165 155 145 135 125 115105 95
85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 5
16 Isentropic Levels (K): ipv
270 280 290 300 310 320 330 350 400 450 550 650 850 1000 1250
1500
CDAS (R1)
GFS AM (OPR)
Vertical coordinate
Sigma
Sigma/pressure
Spectral resolution
T62
T382
Horizontal resolution
~210 km
~35 km
Vertical layers
28
64
Top level pressure
~3 hPa
0.266 hPa
Layers above 100 hPa
~7
~24
Layers below 850 hPa
~6
~13
Lowest layer thickness
~40 m
~20 m
Analysis scheme
SSI
GSI
Satellite data
NESDIS temperature Radiances
retrievals
Moorthi, Nov 2007
DATA STUDIES
• We have made 20 data impact studies (using T62L64
atmospheric-only data assimilation system)
• We have tested SSU, ERS winds, JMA reprocessed cloud track
winds, and PAOBS
• We have tested the new Reynolds’ ¼ degree SST for the
GODAS
• We have tested the new 0.5 degree global CPC precipitation
product for the GLDAS
• We have updated snow and sea ice
• We have collected tropical storm information from ERA40
and from our own archive
• We have done several satellite radiance bias spin up
experiments and are continuing to do them
MONITORING
• Monitoring Web site has been built
• The CPC team has done an outstanding job of
monitoring the:
–
–
–
–
Stratosphere
Troposphere
Surface
Ocean
• EMC monitoring of data usage and verification of
the 5-day short range forecasts is also underway
OPR
CFSR
OPR
CFSR
5 day scores in CFSRR are better in NH than in SH in 1979.
Increasing satellite data in later years have made the scores in NH and
SH more comparable
A QBO Problem
10 hPa ZONAL WIND RAWINDSONDE AT SINGAPORE OBS (red), ANALYSIS (green) GUESS (blue)
After changes to the background error covariances
10 hPa ZONAL WIND RAWINDSONDE OBS AT SINGAPORE (red), ANALYSIS (green) GUESS (blue)
SOME PROBLEMS FACED DURING
THE SPIN UP PHASE OF CFSR
• MANY BUG FIXES IN CODES AND SCRIPTS
• ADEQUATE COMPUTER RESOURCES NOT
RECEIVED UNTIL JULY 1.
• ADEQUATE FUNDING NOT RECEIVED UNTIL
JULY 1.
• DUE TO THIS, CFSR DELIVERY DATE HAS
SLIPPED
• A QUARTER OF THE PROJECT IS DONE
THE HUMAN FACE OF CFSR
Suru Saha
Xingren Wu
CPC/EMC
MONITORING
Jiande Wang
Patrick Tripp
EMC SUPPORT
EMC
CORE
GROUP
24/7
Hua-Lu Pan
GROUP
Ken Mitchell
Russ Treadon
Daryl Kliest
Glenn White
Yu-Tai Hou
Helin Wei
Bob Grumbine
Jack Woollen
Dave Behringer
Mark Iredell
Steve Lord
Bob Kistler
Haixia Liu
Hui-ya Chuang
Jesse Meng
Sudhir Nadiga
Shrinivas Moorthi
Diane Stokes
GROUP
George Gayno
Jun Wang
Paul van Delst
CPC/EMC SCIENTISTS MONITORING CFSR
Arun Kumar
Troposphere
Surface
Muthuvel Chelliah
Wanqiu Wang
Craig Long
Yan Xue
Jae Schemm
Huug van den Dool
Shuntai Zhou
Boyin Huang
Wesley Ebisuzaki
Kingtse Mo
Roger Lin
Jiande Wang
Suru Saha
Yun Fan
Xingren Wu
Augustin Vintzileos
Glenn White
Sudhir Nadiga
Hua-Lu Pan
Helin Wei
Ken Mitchell
Stratosphere
Ocean/SeaIce
Issues
• Integrated Earth System Analysis
– Aerosol is in the plan for the operational data assimilation
system and will be available at the next CFSRR
– CO2 changes are already built in the current CFS Reanalysis
– 20-century type of CMIP runs indicates that the CFS in the
CFSRR system is capable of responding to the CO2 changes
• How can we accelerate the future CFSRR?
– Data assimilation – combine satellite radiance usage with the
earth system modeling to address atmosphere, ocean, land, ice,
and biosphere
– Improving both weather and climate signals in the fully coupled
models
– Resource needed to do both
Email : [email protected]
Website : http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov