Transcript Document 7263022

Education, Poverty and the MDGs:
New research and what it means for the
EFA Agenda
Presentation to the
UNESCO Working
Group on EFA
UNESCO, Paris
November 16, 2007
Barbara Bruns
Lead Economist
Human Development Network
World Bank
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Three objectives….
• Brief overview of global MDG progress
• Emerging thinking on education and
growth – recent work of the World Bank
Commission on Growth and Development
• Implications for the EFA agenda
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I. Overview of MDG Progress
From (World Bank) GMR 2007:
Confronting the Challenges of Gender
Equality and Fragile States
Main Messages
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Significant progress toward MDG1
Globally MDG1 is on track (2015 forecast = 12%).
Figure 1.1: Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%)
(with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015)
People in developing countries living on less than $1 a day
50
1489
1400
1247
1200
1172
1093
1120
40
1067
985
1000
30
721
800
20
600
400
Percent of population
Number of people (millions)
1600
10
200
0
0
1981
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2004
Number of people
Share of people
2015
4
Regional progress differs sharply
East Asia has already surpassed the MDG1 target. Sub-Saharan
Africa lags well behind the target.
Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%) – East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
(with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015)
Poverty - SSA
Poverty - EAP
50
50
40
40
46.7
41.1
30
29.8
35.6
30
20
14.9
23.4
20
9.0
10
10
2.4
0
0
1990
1995
Actual $1/day
2000
Goal
2005
2010
Projected $1/day
2015
1990
1995
Actual $1/day
2000
Goal
2005
2010
Projected $1/day
2015
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The pace of poverty reduction depends on
more than growth
Growth and Poverty Reduction Over Recent Period*
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
China
Burkina Faso
Brazil
Mozambique
India
Nigeria
Laos
Peru
-2
-4
Annual Growth in GDP per capita
Annual % Reduction in the Poverty Rate
* China: 1999-2004
Burkina Faso:1998-2003
Brazil: 1999-2002
Mozambique: 1996-2002
India: 1994-2005
Nigeria: 1996-2003
Laos: 1997-2002
Peru: 1996-2003
Source: World Bank – Development Economics
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But also cautionary notes…
Risks to positive outlook – unwinding of global imbalances (US trade deficit),
pandemic, oil price volatility.
• Environmental sustainability: growth for many is through depleting their natural
assets.
• Fragile states are being left out: weak growth, little progress with poverty reduction,
persistent fragility
Unadjusted and Adjusted Net Savings
Figure presents the calculation of adjusted net saving in Bolivia in 2003
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Lagging growth performance in fragile states
• Defined by weak governance and institutions; often affected by conflict.
• Fragile states have consistently grown more slowly than other low-income
countries.
• State fragility has proven to be a persistent condition—21 of the 34 states
judged as fragile in 1980, were still viewed as such in 2005.
Real per capita growth
Fragile states
Fuel producers
Non-fuel producers
Nonfragile states
1986-90
0.1
1.7
-0.1
1.3
1991-05 1996-2000 2001-05
-2.5
0.3
2.1
-5.5
2.4
2.9
-2.0
-0.1
2.0
-0.1
2.9
3.0
2004
3.2
2.2
3.4
3.5
2005
3.3
5.9
2.8
4.1
2006
2.6
4.0
2.3
4.5
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Advancing the MDGs--Fragile states are
least likely to meet MDG1
Extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in
Fragile states
•35 states—home to 9% (500
million) of the developing world’s
population and 27% of its
extreme poor.
•State fragility has proven to be a
persistent condition—21 of the 34
states judged as fragile in 1980,
were still viewed as such in 2005.
•Impact beyond borders.
•Pose a dilemma for development
community.
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Fragile states are the least likely
to meet the MDGs
•Facing the largest MDG
gap; 27% of extreme
poor; nearly 1/3 of child
deaths and children not
completing school; ¼ of
the HIV positive
population
•Need to strengthen
international
partnerships, and
deepen lessons on
approaches.
Sources: World Bank Staff estimates
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Human Development MDGs: 4 broad messages
1. Progress is accelerating, but not enough to
meet the goals
• All regions – and 80% of countries -- off track on child
mortality goal
– South Asia off track on all goals
– Sub-Saharan Africa off track on all goals
• …but some countries in every region showing exceptional
results
• Mozambique, Cambodia, Benin, Rwanda and Niger in primary
completion
• Timor Leste, Vietnam, Bhutan, Mongolia and Eritrea on child
mortality
• Increase in ART access (Botswana, Kenya, South Africa and
Uganda have reached 50% of those in need) and declining HIV
prevalence in some countries
• Malawi and Namibia on track to water target; Senegal on
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sanitation
2. ODA for HD has increased, but uneven
progress on harmonization
ODA for HD is increasing …especially in health
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EFA FTI is fostering harmonization and alignment
in education…
but these remain key issues in health
• A high share of health ODA is
earmarked for specific
diseases
• A high share is off
governments’ budgets and
sometimes off national
accounts (eg. drugs and
other in-kind supplies)
• A high share is managed by
NGOs or by donors directly
• All of this may be good for
donor tracking of results…
• …but it undermines countries’
accountability for health
outcomes, and ability to
invest efficiently in health
system strengthening
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3. The poor are benefiting from MDG progress,
especially in education
Pro-poor progress on primary completion…
Average Annual Change in Primary School Completion
Burkina Faso 1998-03
Madagascar 1997-2003/04
6.4
6.5
Ethiopia 2000-2005
Bangladesh 2000-04
Morocco 1992-2003/04
Peru 2000-2004
Malaw i 2000-2004
15.8
13.7
11.9
9.6
2.2
9.3
3.4
6.1
1.4
2.3 5.1
1.1 3.7
1.43.1
2.0
0.8
1.9
0.4
1.5
0.5
Cameroon 1998-04
Egypt 2000-2005
Indonesia 1997-2002/03
Bolivia 1998-03
Colombia 2000-05
Philipinnes 1998-2003
Mozambique 1997-2003
Kenya 1997-2003
Tanzania 1999-2004
Senegal 1997-2005
Chad 1996/7 -2004
23.4
-0.3
-1.0
-2.6
-3.5-1.0
-5.8
0.0
1.2
-6.1 -2.2
-10.3
Population average
Source: Demographic and Health Surveys
7.4
Poorest quintile
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Child mortality progress less likely to reach the
poor…
Average Annual Reduction in Under 5 Child Mortality
Indonesia 1997-2002/03
Malawi 2000-2004
Egypt 2000-2005
Madagascar 1997-2003/04
Mozambique 1997-2003
Bolivia 1998-03
Philipinnes 1998-2003
Bangladesh 2000-04
Burkina Faso 1998-03
Rwanda 2000-2005
Morocco 1992-2003/04
Tanzania 1999-2004
Ghana 1998-2003
Ethiopia 2000-2005
Guinea 1999-2005
Cameroon 1998-04
Senegal 1997-2005
Colombia 2000-05
Chad 1996/7 -2004
Nigeria 1990-2003
Kenya 1997-2003
Source: Demographic and Health Surveys
4.8
6.4
5.4
5.5
5.1
6.0
5.0 6.0
4.7
2.8
3.4
1.1
3.4
5.0
3.3
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.2
3.0
3.7
2.9 3.7
1.8
0.1
1.4
-0.2
7.9
1.0
0.6
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.0
1.7
-0.4
-0.1
-0.5
-1.0
-1.7
-1.3
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Population average
Poorest quintile
4: In both health and education, a stronger focus on
quality is needed -- even while scaling up quantity
New research shows the quality of health delivery marked by large
“competence/practice” gaps
• In India, doctors completed only 26% of
recommended protocol for diagnosing TB
and 18% of the protocol for a child with
diarrhea
• In Tanzania in 2004, 67% of clinicians
mistreated TB and 24% mistreated malaria
in reality, while reporting appropriate
practice
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Quality in health delivery: where doctors work
affects “competence/practice gap”
• Institutional setting
and “high powered
incentives” make a
difference – doctors
in autonomous
facilities more likely
to perform up to
ability
• Contracting for
results in
Cambodia,
Argentina,
Afghanistan,
Rwanda is showing
some promise
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Growing evidence of low learning
levels in developing countries…
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…and wide gaps in learning even at
primary level
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Little international test evidence for low-income
countries, but early grade reading assessments show
widespread problems…
• In India, a 2005 nationwide survey conducted by Pratham showed
68% of children in grades 2-5 could not read a very short paragraph
• In Peru, 46% of children at the end of 2nd grade in 2005 could not
read a single word of a first grade text in 2005
• In Kenya, 30% of 2nd and 3rd graders unable to read any words in a
first grade text in 2006
• In rural Cameroun, 80% of 3rd grade students in 2005 could not read
a single word of a first grade text
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GMR 2007 conclusion: Stronger focus on quality
needed in both education and health
• No evidence of an inherent “tradeoff” between access
and quality over long term
– Globally, highest performing education and health systems have
broadest access
– Extending basic services to all crucial for equity, long-term social
stability, and economic gains from human development
• But closer monitoring of quality needed as countries
scale up
• Measure quality in terms of results:
– outputs (level of patient service delivered and instructional time) and
outcomes (student learning, health outcomes).
– Inputs (qualification levels, numbers of clinics) don’t guarantee
results
• Govts and donors should focus on incentives for quality
– Need for international tests that are more relevant for developing
countries
– Support experimentation and evaluation of “contracting for
performance” in health
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II. Education, Growth and Poverty
Reduction: New Evidence
•
•
•
•
•
Hanushek and Woessman
Carneiro, Attanasio and Meghir
Aghion
Cunha and Heckman
Kremer
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Hanushek and Woessman: Cognitive Skills and
Economic Development
New analysis of international test results suggests
skills are key for returns to education, growth,
and income distribution
• Most of the returns to years of schooling are
returns to quality, ie. skill levels
• And the connection between “quality” and
economic growth “dwarfs the association
between the quantity of education and growth
– (1 SD increase in avg. int’l test performance assoc.
with 1-2 percentage point higher GDP/cap.)
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Source: Hanushek and Woessman, presentation to Growth Commission, 10/19/07
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Hanushek and Woessman, ctd.
• The distribution of learning performance
makes a difference for growth:
• Broad-based “minimal skills” seems to be key for
capturing the economic benefits of education
• But a high share of top performers -- “rocket
scientists” – seems to exert independent positive
effects
• And open economies benefit most
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Carneiro et al: Changing Returns to
Education
• Economic return to primary education is
high in low-income, low literacy countries
• But it evaporates quite quickly as countries
develop
– Real wages fall for primary grads relative to
others
– Then wages for secondary grads fall relative
to higher education
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Carneiro, ctd.
• Countries are having difficulty expanding
higher education fast enough
• Short window of time where returns to
primary education are high
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Aghion: Growth and the Financing of Higher
Education
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31
32
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Aghion, ctd.
• Result:
– Finds that investments in “high brow” education (ie,
research universities) are more growth-enhancing for
states closer to the technological frontier and
– Conversely, investments in “low brow” education (2
year community colleges) are more growth-enhancing
for states further from the technological frontier
• Echoes Hanushek’s hypothesis that both broad
–based education and production of “rocket
scientist” can contribute to growth, but through
different routes….
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Cunha and Heckman: Investing in Young People
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Cunha and Heckman, ctd
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Kremer: Education Policies in Developing
Countries
• Debate on cross-country evidence on education
and growth interesting, but…
• Prima facie evidence that education investment
in most countries is large and pretty inefficient
• Priority should be building evidence on “what
works” to keep kids in school and raise learning
(at minimum cost)
– eg, Camera project (Duflo and Hanna). Absenteeism
reduced by 50%, test scores went up by 0.17 SD after
a year
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39
Estimated Cost per 0.1 SD increase in test scores
(Kenya and India)
– Duflo and Kremer
5
4
3
2
Textbook
CAL
Camera
Incentives
GSP B&T
GSP B
Balsakhi
y1
0
Balsakhi
y2
1
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III. Implications for EFA Agenda
• Primary completion (MDG 2) is not enough
• EFA goals are right to stress:
– LEARNING!!!
– ECD
– Post-basic education
• Pursuit of multiple goals makes cost-effective
approaches all the more imperative
• And points to crucial need for:
– Good, relevant, learning assessments for developing
countries
– More, high quality impact evaluations to build the
evidence on cost-effective policies
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Putting a teacher in a
classroom is not enough….
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Thank you
The World Bank/IMF Global Monitoring Report
and related materials are available at:
http://www.worldbank.org/gmr2007
Information on the Spanish Impact Evaluation
Trust Fund is available at:
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TO
PICS/EXTPOVERTY
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