Transcript Architectures for the Future Andrew Lippman Media Lab

Architectures for the Future
Andrew Lippman
Media Lab
[email protected]
April, 2008
Theme: Architecture and People
• Infrastructure-free scaling
• Living the Future
• OLPC
• Human2.0
Social development enabled by science
Grand Challenge: Scaling
• Scaling is the hardest technical barrier
• Value is often shown through scale
• Scaling begins with adoption
• Scaling proceeds with user evolution
End-to-End systems scale organically
IT Relevance
• Business utilities are becoming personal
• Consumer systems outnumber
specialized solutions
• Wireless is not enterprise-ready
• Firewalls move to the person
“Horizontal” Organization atomizes data
Viral Growth
Capacity
~n
Bandwidth/Node
n
Capacity
Bandwidth/Node
n
Viral systems are scalable, incremental, and value-adding.
Intelligence is at the edges, costs are low, they are agile.
Optimized for invention
Viral Examples
Spreadsheet: More users => more application
Napster: More users => more music
Skype/Joost: More users => bigger exchange
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Viral Possibilities
Education: The learners are the innovators,
infrastructure makes the system rigid
Healthcare: Patients as a group already are more
up-to-date than their physician; the average
psychologist reads no more than one journal per
month
Founding Dates
YouTube
2/14/2005
FaceBook
2/4/2004
Second Life (beta)
2003
Internet Use
2000:
1 YT
2001:
3 YT’s, 85PB/month
2006:
74YT’s, 2000PB/month
(350MB/person/month)
2012:
7000YT’s, 200,000 PB/month
(26GB/person/month)
YouTube, 27 PB/month in 2006
Sources: Odlysko, Cisco, Nemertes
Computing
Kurzweil, 2007
Memory
Kurzweil, 2007
Wiki updates
The value of radio
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Wires are a 19th century constraint
Fluid Voice
Push-to-listen
Social and technical
scaling
Cooperative distribution
Living the Future
There are a great many breakthroughs for
which we have no model.
•
•
•
They come from the community
Require impossible joint-ventures
Stretch the law and the imagination
MIT and its community can invent and explore them.
It can also become a test platform for sponsor ideas
and ventures. We do this by inventing the future and
living with it.
Living the Future
Realizations
Architecture:
Indoor location
Mips on demand
Virtual services
Tools:
Amulet
Open Connect
Geo-semantics
Themes
Apps
Symmetry:
Identity:
Open personal platforms
Simulated supercomputing
Network agility
Hyperconnectivity
Radiating presence
Context:
Security:
Environment
Activity
Semantics
Faith in numbers
Campus/regional safety
Relationships:
Personal:
The reminder agent
Health:
The personal alert
Radiating presence
What can you do when I am in the room?
HDL
A platform for expression between phone and Desktop
Portable configuration
Community infrastructure
Indoor/Outdoor display
24 hour power
Open system
OLPC/HDL
800x600 color; 1200x900 B&W
258 MB memory; 1024 MB flash
433MHz Geode (or more)
5 million of 47 million
Workspace, ebook, communicator
Scratch
HDL
5/07
(green) those countries we plan to pilot
(red) those countries we plan to include in the post-launch phase
(orange) those countries who have expressed interest at the Ministry-of-Education level or higher
(yellow) those countries who are currently seeking government support
Making better people
Making better people
QuickTime™ and a
YUV420 codec decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Normal End: Extras follow
Andrew Lippman
Media Lab
[email protected]
November, 2007
Speed…
HBO
Number of
Whitman
Food
Viewers
Number of programs
Invention to innovation
Legitimate:
Viral:
Economic
Centralized
(Scalable)
Innovative
Low risk
Agility
Charles Fine, 2001
Going Legitimate
When?
Base Techs
Legitimate:
Viral:
Economic
Centralized
(Scalable)
Innovative
Low risk
Agility
The magic is when technology
is in sync with society
Peerness
Facebook
Central
Wikipedia
YouTube
IM
EBay
Gmail
Google
Architecture
SMTP
Distributed
Blogs
Skype
SIP
Bit-torrent
Distributed
Central
Application
Peerness
Facebook
Central
Wikipedia
YouTube
IM
EBay
Gmail
Google
Architecture
SMTP
Distributed
Blogs
Fluid Voice
Xcast
Snap&Share
Vid-Torrent
Skype
SIP
Bit-torrent
Distributed
Central
Application
Architectures for the Future
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Andrew Lippman
Additional slides
[email protected]
June, 2007