Transcript The Price Survey Part 1 November 1, 2004 National Economic Survey of Iraq

National Economic Survey of Iraq
The Price Survey
Part 1
November 1, 2004
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Purpose
The Purpose of the National Economic Survey of Iraq is
to provide the Iraqi Government and its donors,
partners and consultants unbiased economic data
collected according to international best practice.
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Problem
 No dependable statistics that could be validated were
being gathered in Iraq after the war.
 Pre-war statistics could not be validated.
 The Iraqi government and its donors, partners, and
consultants required reliable economic data in order to
make economic policy decisions.
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Structure
18 Primary Surveys:
 A. Reports based on primary data sources:

Agriculture
 Petroleum Extraction & Processing
 Mining & Quarrying
 Building & Construction
 Public Utilities
 Business Climate, Including Regulations Affecting Conduct of Business
 Manufacturing Industries
 Wholesale Trade
 Retail Trade
 Hospitality
 Restaurants
 Transport
 Communications
 Warehousing & Storage
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Structure (con)
Banking
Insurance
Real Estate
Professional Services
 B. Reports based on secondary data sources:
 National income accounting and Gross Domestic Product
 Balance of payments
 External trade in goods and services
 Foreign and domestic investment
 Money supply and interest rates
 Business climate including a description of regulation affecting conduct of business
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Team
 Iraq:
– 20 of Iraq’s leading researchers
– Experienced economists and accountants at Iraq’s foremost universities.
– 100 Iraqi staff involved in survey.
– 99% Iraqi Effort – 1 American in Iraq.
 US:
– Hoover Institute at Stanford University
– World Class analysis.
– International collaboration between best Iraqi professors and colleagues
in America.
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Methodology
 Iraq divided into 5 Regions:
– South ( Nassiriya, Samawa, Amara, Basra ).
– South Central ( Kut, Babylon, Diwaniya, Najaf, Karbala ).
– Baghdad.
– Central ( Dialah, Anbar, Tikrit ).
– North ( Erbil, Suleimaniya, Dahuk, Kirkuk, Ninevah ).
 Price Survey:
– Governorate price averages taken weekly for each region.
– Building Econometric Model to predict future consumer behavior and ability of
new market economy to react to supply side and demand side shocks.
 Sector surveys conducted at Governorate Level.
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Summary
 National Economic Survey of Iraq (NESI) is a National Effort.
 Creating a new independent Iraqi capability and a core of
professional internationally trained researchers to assist the
Parliament and government (similar to the US Congressional
Research Service).
 Provides valuable data for policy makers and highlight opportunities
for investment.
National Economic Survey of Iraq
The Price Survey
18 Province Coverage
Weekly Reports
November, 2004
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Description of Survey:
 The purpose of the price survey is to provide the policy
maker with understanding of consumer behaviour and factors
influencing demand, as well as the ability of the post-war Iraqi
economy to match supply to demand.
 The survey will help to predict abnormality in the market,
and enable us to take the necessary policy steps to control
disruption of market mechanisms by both external and internal
shocks.
National Economic Survey of Iraq
 The Survey gathers data in four basic groups:
• PDS Food Basket.
• Non-subsidized Food.
• Fuel.
• Construction Materials.
 Cover all eighteen Governorates.
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Remarks:
 There is price fluctuation due to political instability
(effecting both supply and demand).
 There is tendency for prices to increase due to
income increase.
National Economic Survey of Iraq
The following items are covered in the Survey:
A. The Food Basket:
‫طحين‬
Flour - Ration Flour
‫رز‬
Rice - Ration Rice (Type by Governorate)
Pulses - Lentil
‫ئارد‬
‫عدس‬
‫حمص‬
Pulses - Chick Pea
Pulses - Beans
Cooking oil - Sunflower
Cooking Ghee
Sugar
Soap - Ration Grade
Detergent - Ration Grade
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫نيسك‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫نوك‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫فاصولياء‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫زيت الطبخ‬
‫زيت خواردن‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫دهن نباتي‬
‫روون‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫شه كر‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫شاي‬
‫جاي‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫حليب باودر‬
‫شيرى توز‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫سكر‬
‫ملح‬
Salt
Infant Formula - Ration Grade
‫برنج‬
‫فاصوليا‬
Tea
Powdered Milk
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫غذاء طفل‬
‫خوى‬
‫خواردنى مندال‬
‫صابون‬
‫مسحوق غسيل‬
per unit ‫للوحدة الواحدة‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫سابون‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫تايد‬
per kilo ‫للكيلو الواحد‬
‫‪National Economic Survey of Iraq‬‬
‫‪B. Non-subsidized foods‬‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫معجون طماطة ‪ /‬رب ته ماته‬
‫‪Tomato Paste‬‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫مويشكى خومالى دجاج محلي‬
‫‪Chicken - Local‬‬
‫دجاج مستورد‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫مويشكى ئه جنه بى‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫كوشتى مانكاى ئه جيتى لحم بقر مستورد‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫كوشتى مه رى ئه خومالى‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫كوشتى مه رى ئه جيتى‬
‫لكل ثالثين بيضة ‪30 eggs‬‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫لحم غنم محلي‬
‫لحم غنم مستورد‬
‫طه به قه ى حيتلكة بيض‬
‫شيرى نوى حليب طازج‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫خورماى زه هدى‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫خورماى خة ستاوى تمر خستاوي‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫برتقالى خومان برتقال‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫ته ماتة‬
‫تمرزهدي‬
‫طماطة‬
‫‪Chicken - Imported‬‬
‫‪Ground beef‬‬
‫‪Lamb - Local‬‬
‫‪Lamb -Imported‬‬
‫‪Eggs - Medium‬‬
‫‪Milk, fresh‬‬
‫‪Dates - Zahidi‬‬
‫‪Dates - Khestawi‬‬
‫‪Oranges -Local‬‬
‫‪Tomatoes, fresh‬‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫ديواز بصل‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫ئاور خيار‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫باينجان باذنجان‬
‫‪Eggplant‬‬
‫للكيلو الواحد ‪per kilo‬‬
‫به تاتة بطاطا‬
‫‪Potatoes‬‬
‫لكل ‪ 100‬غم ‪100 grams‬‬
‫نان يان موت‬
‫‪Onion‬‬
‫‪Cucumber‬‬
‫صمون او خبز‬
‫‪Bread - Samoona or Koubuiz‬‬
National Economic Survey of Iraq
C. Fuels:
Gasoline, Regular
Gasoline, Super
Kerosene (Heating oil)
Diesel
Cooking Gas/LPG
‫بنزين عادي‬
‫به نزين عادى‬
per liter ‫للتر الواحد‬
‫به نزين موحه سه ن بنزين محسن‬
per liter ‫للتر الواحد‬
‫نه فتى سبى نفط ابيض‬
per liter ‫للتر الواحد‬
‫كاز‬
‫كاز ئويل‬
‫ده به ى غاز قنينة غاز‬
per liter ‫للتر الواحد‬
per 15 liter cylinder ‫ لتر‬15 ‫لكل‬
‫‪National Economic Survey of Iraq‬‬
‫‪D. Construction Materials:‬‬
‫للطن المتر الواحد ‪per metric ton‬‬
‫جيمه نتوى بالبشت كراد سمنت مدعوم‬
‫سمنت مقاوم‬
‫للطن المتر الواحد ‪per metric ton‬‬
‫جيمه نتوى به بشن‬
‫للطن المتر الواحد ‪per metric ton‬‬
‫جيمه نتوى سمن اعتيادي‬
‫‪Cement - Subsidized‬‬
‫‪Cement - Salt Resistant‬‬
‫‪Cement - Portland ASTM Type 1‬‬
‫للطن المتر الواحد ‪per metric ton‬‬
‫كيتج‬
‫جص‬
‫‪Gypsum‬‬
‫للطن المتر الواحد ‪per metric ton‬‬
‫ئاسن‬
‫حديد‬
‫‪Rebar (1/2 inch size) - non-galvanized A615 Gr 60‬‬
‫لكل ‪ 1000‬قطعة ‪1000 blocks‬‬
‫لكل ‪ 4000‬قطعة ‪4000 bricks‬‬
‫بلوك كونكريت بلوك‬
‫كه ربوج‬
‫‪Concrete Block‬‬
‫طابوق‬
‫‪Bricks‬‬
‫لكل ‪ 6‬امتار ‪6 meter‬‬
‫بورى انبوب ‪ 4‬انج‬
‫‪PVC pipe (4 inch or 100 mm) - Pressure rated SDR 21‬‬
‫لكل ‪ 6‬امتار ‪6 meter‬‬
‫بورى ئاوى موغه لوه ن انبوب مغلون‬
‫)‪Galvanized steel pipe (3/4 inch‬‬
‫طنين ‪2.0ton‬‬
‫اركوندشن مكيف هواء‬
‫‪Air Conditioner‬‬
‫‪3.5 hp‬‬
‫مو به ردة مبردة هواء‬
‫‪Air Cooler‬‬
‫دارى جام خشب جام‬
‫‪Wood - Cham‬‬
‫للمتر المكعب الواحد ‪per cubic meter‬‬
‫للمتر المربع الواحد ‪Square meter‬‬
‫حديد شبابيك ‪ /‬ئاسن بنجه ره‬
‫‪Window Steel‬‬
‫للمتر المربع الواحد ‪Square meter‬‬
‫زجاج شبابيك‬
‫لكل ‪ 1000‬قطعة ‪1000 piece‬‬
‫للمتر المربع الواحد ‪Square meter‬‬
‫جام‬
‫كاشى موزائيك‬
‫سيراميك‬
‫للمتر المكعب الواحد ‪per cubic meter‬‬
‫قم‬
‫للمتر المكعب الواحد ‪per cubic meter‬‬
‫جه كل‬
‫)‪Glass (Clear Window glass- 4mm thick‬‬
‫موزائيك‬
‫سيراميك‬
‫رمل‬
‫حصو‬
‫‪Tiles (Mosaic) 30x30‬‬
‫‪Ceramic‬‬
‫‪Sand‬‬
‫‪Gravel‬‬
National Economic Survey of Iraq
National Economic Survey of Iraq
PDS Food Basket: Cost per person by Region
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
The cost of the food basket grew faster in
South and South Central Regions.
4000
2000
0
2330- 05-Jul- 12-Jul- 19-Jul- 26-Jul- 02Jun-04 Jun-04 04
04
04
04
Aug04
09Aug04
16Aug04
23Aug04
30Aug04
06Sep04
13Sep04
20Sep04
270411182501Sep- Oct-04 Oct-04 Oct-04 Oct-04 Nov04
04
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
‫االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
South ‫الجنوب‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG
‫ معدل‬South
‫ معدل‬Central
‫الوسط معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل جنوب‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
Baghdad
‫معدل بغداد‬
Weeks
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
Central
‫الوسط‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG
‫ معدل‬North
‫معدلالشمالمعدل‬
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Rice
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
of flour
PricePrice
of Rice
grewgrew
fasterfaster
in thein the
South and South Central
North.
100
50
0
23- 30- 05- 12- 19- 26- 02- 09- 16- 23- 30- 06- 13- 20- 27- 04- 11Jun- Jun- Jul-04 Jul-04 Jul-04 Jul-04 Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Oct- Oct04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
18- 25- 01Oct- Oct- Nov04
04
04
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG
Baghdad
North‫معدل‬
‫ معدل معدل‬South
‫ معدل معدل معدل معدل‬South
‫معدل‬Central
‫معدل معدل معدل معدل‬
‫معدل معدل معدل معدل‬Central
‫معدل معدل معدل معدل‬
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Flour
350
300
250
200
150
Price of flour grew faster in the
South and South Central Regions
100
50
0
23Jun04
300512192602Jun- Jul-04 Jul-04 Jul-04 Jul-04 Aug04
04
09Aug04
16Aug04
23Aug04
30Aug04
06Sep04
13Sep04
20Sep04
27Sep04
04Oct04
11Oct04
18Oct04
25Oct04
01Nov04
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
‫االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع‬
AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
South ‫الجنوب‬
South Central ‫جنوب الوسط‬
Baghdad ‫بغداد‬
Central ‫الوسط‬
North ‫الشمال‬
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Sugar
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
23- 30- 05Jun- Jun- Jul04
04
04
12Jul04
19Jul04
26- 02- 09- 16- 23- 30- 06- 13- 20- 27- 04- 11- 18- 25- 01Jul- Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Nov04
04
04
04
04
04 04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
04
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG
Central‫معدل معدل معدل معدل‬
Baghdad
Central
North ‫معدل‬
‫ معدل معدل‬South
‫معدل معدل معدل معدل‬South‫معدل‬
‫معدل معدل معدل معدل‬
‫معدل معدل معدل معدل‬
National Economic Survey of Iraq
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Local Lamb
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
23Jun04
30Jun04
0512192602Jul-04 Jul-04 Jul-04 Jul-04 Aug04
09Aug04
16Aug04
23Aug04
30Aug04
06Sep04
13Sep04
20Sep04
27Sep04
04Oct04
11Oct04
18Oct04
25Oct04
01Nov04
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
‫االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG
South
‫الجنوب معدل‬
‫معدل‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG
‫معدل جنوب‬
‫ معدل‬South
‫ معدل‬Central
‫الوسط معدل‬
‫معدل‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG
Baghdad
‫معدل‬
‫معدل بغدادمعدل‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG
Central‫معدل‬
‫معدل الوسط‬
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG
‫ معدل‬North
‫الشمال معدل‬
‫معدل‬
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Onion
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2330- 05-Jul- 12-Jul- 19-Jul- 26-Jul- 02Jun-04 Jun-04 04
04
04
04
Aug04
09Aug04
16Aug04
23Aug04
30Aug04
06Sep04
13Sep04
20Sep04
270411182501Sep- Oct-04 Oct-04 Oct-04 Oct-04 Nov04
04
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
‫االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع االسبوع‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
South ‫الجنوب‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG AVG
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
South Central ‫جنوب الوسط‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
Baghdad ‫بغداد‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG AVG
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
Central ‫الوسط‬
AVG
‫معدل‬
AVG AVG
‫معدل‬
‫معدل‬
North ‫الشمال‬
National Economic Survey of Iraq
Chicken-Imported
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
23- 30- 05Jun- Jun- Jul04
04
04
12Jul04
19Jul04
26- 02- 09- 16- 23- 30- 06- 13- 20- 27- 04- 11- 18- 25- 01Jul- Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Nov04
04
04 04
04 04 04
04 04
04 04
04
04 04
04
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11
12 13
14
15 16
17
AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG
‫معدل معدل معدل جنوب‬
Baghdad
Central‫معدل‬
‫ معدل معدل الوسط‬North
‫ معدل‬South
‫الجنوب معدل‬
‫ معدل معدل معدل‬South
‫ معدل‬Central
‫معدلالوسط معدل‬
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