Transcript Solutions to a hazardous world Date: AS Global Challenges Unit 1

Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Solutions to a hazardous world
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Spec
Solutions to a more hazardous world, at all scales need to focus on the
underlying issues of risk and vulnerability.
Developing an awareness of, for example, local flood risk, regional poverty and
international strategies to tackle a world at risk.
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Capacity Building for Climate
Change: A Risk Management
Approach
Milind Kandlikar
Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability
University of British Columbia
Ambuj Sagar
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Risks from Climate : Why
should we care?
Impacts will be felt in all sectors, esp. on natural resources (Water, Agriculture, Forests
and Coastal zones)
The magnitude of impacts is likely to be substantial, and in some cases, catastrophic:
Climate variability (especially extreme events) will be the primary driver.
2002 Monsoon failures in India may result in ~1% GDP loss.
Recurring floods in Bangladesh (~5% of GDP).
Hurricane Mitch (‘99) “set Honduras economic development back 20 years” (~75%
of GDP).
Adaptation will involve coping with climate shifts and variability in the context of
several factors that
influence vulnerability.
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Increasing Vulnerability from Weather Risks
Magnitude of Weather Impacts
Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Climate Vulnerability and Development: Common concerns
Average Mortality per Disaster
1200
Deaths per Event
Per-Capita Weather Impacts
1000
800
600
Series1
400
200
0
LHD
MHD
HHD
Human Development
Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16
Source: World Disasters Report 2001
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AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Risks from Climate Variability to the Economy
Global Weather Related
Losses in US $ Billion
Business and increased uncertainty do not mix well.
Increased climate variability will impact long-run
growth since resources will be needed to hedge
against climate related economic uncertainty.
30
Impacts:
25
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Financial sectors (Insurance and Banking)
Knock-on effect on other sectors
1960
1965
1970
Total Economic
Loss
20
Average loss per
Decade
Insured Loss
Mean Insured
Loss per Decade
15
10
5
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Risks from Climate Change: A Historical Perspective
“The picture’s pretty bleak,
gentleman. The world’s climates
are changing, the mammals are
taking over and we all have a
brain about the size of a walnut.”
The task is difficult but humans
are more intelligent
(and so, we hope, are our political
leaders).
Source: Gary Larson
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Source: Stockholm Environmental Institute
Many different factors can make you more or less vulnerable to
climate variability
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Coping with Climate Variability: A Risk Perspective
Climate Variability
Coping Strategies
Science and Assessment
Before the fact:
Preparedness
Science of Climate
Climate only one input!
Useful knowledge
Design of local strategies
Broad Sector Studies
Decision making
under uncertainty
Incorporation into
practice
Training & policy shift
After the fact:
Relief
Disaster Relief
Management
Current Barriers
New Technologies and
Political ‘will’
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Science and Assessments: From Global to Local and Back
Scientific knowledge:
data, models, ‘facts’
Difficulty:
Uncertainty increases with decreasing scale
Capacity building challenge:
Uncertainty
influences “on the ground” decisions
prediction, economic value
Predictability
Usable knowledge:
learning to extract useful local info. in the face of
uncertainty
Not merely an academic exercise, continuous interaction
with the “real” world.
Local
Regional
Scale
Global
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Being prepared for climate change : If adaptation
is the answer, what is the question?
Climate is one input among many:
goal is to reduce impact on economy and society (human
development)
Climate
Multiple stressors
Increased climate variability
Change in local vulnerability over time due to other factors
Changes in operating “regimes”
Multiple Stakeholders
Added complexity and coordination
Recognition that stakes vary
The poorest take the biggest hit
Other
Policy &
Stressors
Politics
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Capacity Building (I): Knowledge Generation and
Integration
Knowledge Generation
Knowledge about the climatic system (e.g., regional models)
Ability to convert “raw” scientific data into useful predictive information (e.g.,
probability of rainfall failure)
Knowledge Integration
Ability to integrate predictive climate information with other sector information and local
knowledge. Easier said than done!
Ability to integrate disparate existing capacities. Find the experts.
Scientists and analysts to learn region specific needs, and develop/ modify assessments
in response. Two-way street.
Public (Bureaucrats, NGOs) and private sector needs to be intimately involved so facilitate
feedback to analysts.
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Capacity Building (II): Preparedness and Response
Whose capacity?
The entire “system”:
Knowledge generators (Scientists)
Mediators (NGOs, bureaucrats, markets)
End users (people, banks, private sector)
Infrastructure (road, rail, telecom)
What does it require?
Credible and Appropriate Knowledge
Institutional adjustment
Financial considerations
Linking knowledge to action.
Top-down and bottom up flows
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Capacity Building: Three Core
Challenges
Building Effective Knowledge Generation Systems
A system that moves information from top-down to bottom
up and vice-versa.
Is credible with users
That links with other efforts.
Capacity
Capacity
Meeting Financial Considerations
Who pays? Who calls the shots?
How is the money spent?
Enabling Institutional Transformations
Bridging existing gaps within and among institutions.
Making existing institutions more porous
Building new institutions
Financing
Knowledge
systems
Institutional
Transformation
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Some Lessons from Disaster Mitigation Efforts (Red Cross)
No coherent risk reduction “community”:
Professionals trying to mitigate impacts are fragmented along institutional boundaries.
Risk reduction cannot be viewed as a technical problem with technical solutions.
It is also a matter of enacting and enforcing laws, building and maintaining accountable institutions, and
producing an environment of mutual trust between government and the population.
Community-based approaches lead to more accurate definition of problems and solutions, because
they draw on local expertise in living with disasters. Communities at risk must trust those delivering the
warnings.
Vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA)
Can provide participants with greater awareness of their own potentialities. “Instead of seeing
themselves as victims, people tell themselves that they can influence what happens.” So VCA is a
capacity-building tool as well as a diagnostic measure.
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Date: 22-May-16
The Hyogo Framework for Action P 85 Philip Allan
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction
It was convened on the basis of guidance contained in the resolution of the General Assembly on the ISDR that
calls for the adoption by governments of the Hyogo Framework and that recognizes the Global Platform as a
successor mechanism to the Inter-Agency Task Force for Disaster Reduction.
National practitioners and other stakeholders have repeatedly expressed the desire to have a mechanism through
which they can exchange their experiences in disaster risk reduction and access information on how other
countries addressed particular challenges in the implementation of the Hyogo Framework.
The Global Platform has been set up to serve this need, and it is expected to become the main global forum for all
parties involved in disaster risk reduction, namely governments, United Nations agencies, international financial
institutions, regional bodies, civil society, the private sector, and the scientific and academic communities. The
Global Platform provides advocacy for effective action to reduce disaster risks, expands the political space
devoted to the issue, and contributes to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals particularly in
respect to poverty reduction and environmental sustainability.
The UN/ISDR is the focal point in the UN System to promote links and synergies between, and the coordination
of, disaster reduction activities in the socio-economic, humanitarian and development fields, as well as to support
policy integration. It serves as an international information clearinghouse on disaster reduction, developing
awareness campaigns and producing articles, journals, and other publications and promotional materials related
to disaster reduction. The UN/ISDR headquarters is based in Geneva. It conducts outreach programmes through
its regional units in Panama for the Americas, Nairobi for Africa, Cairo for Western Asia & North Africa.
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
The United Nations General Assembly designated the 1990’s as the
International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR).
Its basic objective was to decrease the loss of life, property destruction and social and economic
disruption caused by natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, landslides ,volcanic
eruptions, droughts, locust infestations, and other disasters of natural origin.
While the IDNDR followed a strictly techno-centric and scientific approach in the beginning,
the Yokohama conference in 1994 put socio-economic aspects as component of effectivedisaster
prevention into perspective.
It was recognised that social factors, such as cultural tradition, religious values, economic standing, and
trust in political accountability are essential in the determination of societal vulnerability.
In order to reduce societal vulnerability, and therewith decrease the consequences of natural disasters,
these factors need to be addressed. The ability to address socio-economic factors requires knowledge
and understanding of local conditions, which can – in most cases - only be provided by local actors.
A global strategy aiming at reducing the impacts of natural hazards therefore must include the
development of national and sub-national mechanisms for disaster risk reduction. Within this context the
IDNDR called on the UN-member states to establish National Platforms which would facilitate the
adjustment of general disaster risk reduction objectives to national/local conditions, implement the agreed
policies and expand the understanding and perception of the importance of disaster risk reduction on
national levels.
However, while some countries successfully established national networks many did not. In practice, there
remains a pressing need to revitalize and strengthen these national structures.
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)
When it drew to an end, the IDNDR was replaced and continued by the International Strategy for
Disaster Reduction (ISDR). The ISDR aims to pursue the initiatives and cooperation agreed on during
the IDNDR, and developing new mechanisms as well as pushing for further commitments from policymakers. The overriding goal is to reduce human, social, economic and environmental losses due to
natural hazards (and related technological and environmental disasters). The building of disaster resilient
communities is a main objective. The ISDR promotes the following four objectives as tools towards
reaching disaster reduction for all:
•Increase public awareness to understand risk, vulnerability and disaster reduction globally
•Obtain commitment from public authorities to implement disaster reduction policies and actions
•Stimulate interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral partnerships, including the expansion of risk reduction
networks
•Improve scientific knowledge about disaster reduction
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ISDR Mission
Catalyze, facilitate and mobilize the commitment and resources of national, regional and international
stakeholders of the ISDR System to build the resilience of nations and communities to disasters through the
implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action.
Recognizing that natural hazards can threaten any one of us, the ISDR builds on partnerships and takes a global
approach to disaster reduction, seeking to involve every individual and every community towards the goals of
reducing the loss of lives, the socio-economic setbacks and the environmental damages caused by natural
hazards. In order to achieve these goals, the ISDR promotes four objectives as tools towards reaching disaster
reduction for all:
•Increase public awareness to understand risk, vulnerability and disaster reduction globally The more people,
regional organizations, governments, non-governmental organizations, United Nations entities, representatives of
civil society and others know about risk, vulnerability and how to manage the impacts of natural hazards, the more
disaster reduction measures will be implemented in all sectors of society. Prevention begins with information.
•Obtain commitment from public authorities to implement disaster reduction policies and actions The more
decision-makers at all levels commit themselves to disaster reduction policies and actions, the sooner
communities vulnerable to natural disasters will benefit from applied disaster reduction policies and actions. This
requires, in part, a grassroots approach whereby communities at risk are fully informed and participate in risk
management initiatives.
•Stimulate interdisciplinary and intersectoral partnerships, including the expansion of risk reduction networks The
more entities active in disaster reduction share information on their research and practices, the more useful the
global body of knowledge and experience will progress. By sharing a common purpose and through collaborative
efforts we can ensure a world that is more resilient to the impact of natural hazards.
•Improve scientific knowledge about disaster reduction The more we know about the causes and consequences of
natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters on societies, the more we are able to be
better prepared to reduce risks. Bringing the scientific community and policy makers together allows them to
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Decision Making Exercise
Investigate the hazards that face Bangladesh in the future and decide what can
be done to help them in the future?
P60-61 Oxford
Flooding in
Bangladesh
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AS Global Challenges Unit 1
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Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Capacity Building
Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan
Temperatures are rising on Earth, which is heating up the debate over Global Warming and the Climate Change
issues.
To combat global warming, there is need for greater focus on Climate Risk Management (CRM). CRM involves
two broader areas, Mitigation and Adaptation.
While mitigation is a must to stabilize climate system and requires global action (by all nations, states/countries),
adaptation is needed to cop with the situation which are already exerting pressure on the life & livelihood of the
billions around the globe & shall continue in the decades to come.
Adaptation to global climate change needs to be recognized as life saving for millions. Bangladesh is the worst
victim of CC impacts and can’t wait but has to act immediately with all out effort.
Capacity building for climate change refers to the development or strengthening of personal skills, expertise, and
relevant institutions and organizations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and/or to reduce vulnerability
to climate-related impacts. Capacity building often involves the participation of multiple stakeholders, including
host country governments, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), research institutions, local communities, and
international organizations.
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Bangladesh Case Study
Bangladesh is globally considered as one of the most vulnerable countries. An overwhelming majority (82.8
percent; World Bank 2006) of its 150 million people live on income averaging less than two dollars a day.
Observed past and present climate trends and variability indicates an increasing trend of about 1 degree C in May
and 0.5 degree C in November has been observed during the fourteen year period 1985-1998.
Annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends. Observed changes in extreme climatic events revealed from new
evidences on recent trends show increasing tendency in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events
over the last century and into the 21st century.
Impacts of these observed changes have been significant on agriculture, particularly on food production and
security. Another area critically affected is hydrology and water resources, characterized by water shortages. Our
coastal zone is most threatened. Saltwater from the Bay of Bengal has penetrated 100 km or more inland along
tributary channels during dry season. Evidences of the impacts of climate related factors on mangroves are the
severe destruction of mangroves due to reduction of freshwater flows and salt water intrusion.
Wetlands have been observed to suffer from precipitation decline and droughts in the delta region. The north is
affected by floods and riverbank erosion, north and northwestern parts affected by droughts, while the northeast is
ravaged by flash floods annually.
In recent years, heat waves and cold spells have claimed hundreds of life. Vector borne diseases particularly
dengue has become a health hazard claiming hundreds of lives every year.
Bangladesh Department of the Environment
http://www.climatechangecell-bd.org/cc-database.html
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Bangladesh Objectives
Development means wellbeing of society, economy and environment. Climate Change, variability and extreme
events challenge development gains and future goals. Therefore development must be made climate resilient to
assure our wellbeing.
The Climate Change Cell has established a mechanism that facilitates management of long term climate risks and
uncertainties as an integral part of national development planning. The Cell also facilitates strengthening the
capacity of the professionals, practitioners, policy makers to reduce unacceptable risks and improve preparedness
for climate change impacts. The specific objectives of the Climate Change Cell are:
•Establishing an integrated approach to climate change risk management at national and local levels;
•Building the capacity of the Government to coordinate & mainstream climate change issues in development
activities;
•Strengthen existing knowledge & information accessibility on impact prediction & adaptation to climate
change;
•Awareness-raising, advocacy & coordination to promote adaptation to climate change & risk reduction in
development activities.
Date: 22-May-16
AS Global Challenges Unit 1
Grass root awareness in Bangladesh
Extreme weather and events like cyclone, flood, storm surges will intensify, become more frequent and
unpredictable. Changes in the temperature and rainfall pattern will be significant, with grave implications on our
natural resource base, putting agriculture and related livelihood at risk. Droughts and flash foods, untimely
hailstorm, mists will increase and take place more frequently. In addition, changes that take place gradually over
years and sometimes decades, such as salinity intrusion, desertification and sea level rise will compound our risks
and national development goals, particularly poverty reduction.
As a nation we must face up to this challenge. For Bangladesh, climate change is everyone’s concern. Therefore
we must all understand the challenge and act now. Everyone has a stake and therefore a role to play in their
respective capacity. Adequate and appropriate understanding of climate challenges begins with accurate
information, knowledge and communication.
We need to help people understand that climate change is a serious challenge, but one that we can do something
about. We want to communicate a positive vision of what we are collectively trying to achieve. Our goal is that
working together this generation will prepare and address climate change challenges.
“Most people in Bangladesh think that climate change is confusing; they can’t see how it relates to them; think
won’t affect them personally; is a problem for the future, not now; and can’t be affected by their individual actions,
because the problem is so big.”