Transcript Tab 6: ERCOT West Texas Congestion Management

Tab 6: ERCOT West Texas
Congestion Management
John Dumas
Director of Wholesale Market Operations
Jeff Billo
Manager of Mid Term Planning
Dan Jones
Director with Potomac Economics, the ERCOT
IMM
Board of Directors Meeting
ERCOT Public
September 18, 2012
2011 Top 10 Constraints by Total RT Congestion Rent
Top 10 Constraints by Total Congestion Rent (Jan-Dec, 2011)
Congestion Rent in $ million
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
W_TO_N(-)
VALIMP(-)
JAN
FEB
LON_HI_NEDIN1_1(LON_HILL-NEDIN)
Name of Constraints
MAR
APR
AIR_W_DE_1(W_DENT-JMCRSTL)
MAY
JUN
ODNTH_FMR1(ODNTH-ODNTH)
JUL
AUG
GT_MID90_A(GT-MID)
SEP
OCT
591__A(CRLNW-LKPNT)
NOV
DEC
MARION_4AT2(MARION-MARION)
SNGZEN99_A(SNG-ZEN)
NICOLE_OAKC1_1(NICOLE-OAKC)
•
Source: Potomac Economics, the Independent Market Monitor for the ERCOT Region
Tab 6
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ERCOT Public
2012 YTD Top 10 Constraints by Total RT Congestion Rent
Top 10 Constraints by Total Congestion Rent (Jan-Aug, 2012)
Congestion Rent in $ million
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
ODNTH_FMR1(ODNTH-ODNTH)
6215__A(BCKSW-CGRSW)
JAN
FEB
W_TO_N(W_TO_N)
Name of Constraints
MAR
APR
2585_1(MOORE-DOWNIES)
MAY
JUN
SARC-SARC(SARC-SARC)
JUL
AUG
6475__F(ODESA-ODNTH)
SEP
OCT
590__A(LWSSW-LWVJS)
NOV
DEC
258T380_1(TURNER-BUDA)
6430__C(MOSSW-ANCTP)
269T362_1(BUTTER-WHITES)
•
Source: Potomac Economics, the Independent Market Monitor for the ERCOT Region
Tab 6
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3
ERCOT Public
Frequency of Odessa-area Constraints
Jan – Aug 2012 (Binding: At Limit and Binding: Limit Violated)
Sum of Duration HR:MN:SC
Row Labels
Binding: At Limit
Binding: Limit Violated
Grand Total
Percent in Time
Row Labels
Binding: At Limit
Binding: Limit Violated
Grand Total
End Time
Start Time
Difference (Hrs)
•
6865__B
6915__A
ODNTH_FMR1
6475__F
18:20:18
1041:38:50
15:29:49
206:48:29
33:50:07
1248:27:19
6915__A
ODNTH_FMR1
6475__F
0.31%
17.79%
0.26%
3.53%
0.58%
21.32%
16:00:56
18:20:03
34:20:59
6865__B
0.27%
0.31%
0.59%
Grand Total
27:59:57
1104:00:01
16:54:57
257:33:18
44:54:54
1361:33:19
Grand Total
0.48%
0.29%
0.77%
18.85%
4.40%
23.25%
September 1, 2012
January 1, 2012
5856:00:00
Source: Potomac Economics, the Independent Market Monitor for the ERCOT Region
Tab 6
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ERCOT Public
West Texas Congestion
Contingency
Binding Element
Estimated Congestion Rent
$ (Shadow Price*Limit)
Amoco North Cowden Tap - Moss 138kV
Odessa North 138/69 kV Autotransformer
73,038,421
Sacroc - Sun Switch 138 kV; or Golden
Switch - Sun Switch 138 kV
China Grove - Bluff Creek 138 kV
27,183,561
BASE CASE
West to North Stability Limit
26,831,248
Twin Buttes 345/138 kV Autotransformer
San Angelo Red Creek 345/138 kV
Autotransformer 2
18,360,051
Lewisville - Carrollton Northwest 345 kV
Lewisville - Jones Street TNP 138 kV
16,918,023
Batesville 138/69 kV Autotransformer; or
Batesville Switching Station - Paloduro
Substation 138 kV
Moore Switching Station - Downie Switching
Station 138 kV
14,934,701
Midland East - Odessa EHV 345 kV
Odessa - Odessa North 138 kV
14,524,826
Source: July 2012 ERCOT System Planning Report presented at the
August 16 2012 Reliability and Operations Subcommittee Meeting. The
Estimated Congestion Rent is 2012 year-to-date through the end of July.
*Highlighted cells represent West Texas-related congestion
Tab 6
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ERCOT Public
Load Growth in Far West Texas is the Primary Driver of the
Increased Congestion Costs
• Load in the Far West Load Area increased by approximately
6.7% for the month of June between 2011 and 2012
– For the month of July, the increase is approximately 7.3%
Far West Load Comparison for June and July
2000
1900
1800
Load (MW)
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour Ending
2011
Tab 6
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2012
ERCOT Public
Price Spread Between West Load Zone and West Hub
• The table below shows the average real-time price difference
between the LZ_WEST and HB_WEST comparing June and July
of 2012 with June and July of 2011
Avg. Daily Price Difference between LZ_WEST and HB_WEST
SPPs
SPP ($/MW-h)
100
6/11/12
80
60
40
20
0
-20
6/1/2012
6/16/2012
Avg. Real-Time SPP
Month
HB_WEST LZ_WEST
Jun.'11
Jul. '11
Jun.'12
Jul. '12
Tab 6
31.26
47.03
26.57
26.21
7/12/127/15/12
6/25/12
38.44
52.21
44.23
50.50
7/1/2012
Date
7/16/2012
7/31/2012
Difference
Between LZ
and HB
CRR Monthly
Auction HUB-LZ
PeakWD
2012 Annual CRR
Auction HUB-LZ
PeakWD
7.18
5.18
17.66
24.29
3.00
5.78
8.15
13.41
N/A
N/A
3.46
3.88
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ERCOT Public
Real-time Price Comparison Between Load Zones
•
The table below shows the average real-time SPPs for the major Load
Zones comparing June and July of 2012 with June and July of 2011
West Load Zone prices in 2012 remain relatively unchanged from last
year while other Load Zone prices have decreased
Avg. Daily Load Zone Real-Time SPP
300
6/26/12
250
SPP ($/MW-h)
•
LZ_HOUSTON
200
LZ_NORTH
150
LZ_SOUTH
100
50
LZ_WEST
0
6/1/2012
Month
Jun.'11
Jul. '11
Jun.'12
Jul. '12
Tab 6
6/16/2012
7/1/2012
Date
7/16/2012
7/31/2012
Avg. Real-Time SPP
LZ_HOUSTON LZ_NORTH
LZ_SOUTH
42.21
42.54
39.83
43.21
46.52
41.73
28.82
29.09
31.68
26.09
26.91
26.58
8 8
LZ_WEST
38.44
52.21
44.23
50.50
ERCOT Public
History of Shadow Price Caps for West Congestion
• The shadow price cap was changed for the Odessa
North 138/69 kV Autotransformer constraint on
1/1/12 to $2,274.64
– This constraint was changed with the approval of the
new methodology for setting the caps
– The limit was lowered starting 8/6/12 to $2,000 after
the net margin of $95,000 was met
• The shadow price cap was also changed for Bluff
Creek Switch – China Grove Switch 138 kV on 5/3/12
to $2,000
Tab 6
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ERCOT Public
Odessa North Area History
2009 5YTP first
identifies
Odessa NorthNorth Cowden
upgrade
(superseded in
2010 5YTP)
480 MW
Oncor plans
project
Permian
Basin Units 5
and 6 RMR
391 MW
465 MW
ERCOT 5YTP
recommends
convert part of
Odessa 69 kV
system to 138
kV service
453 MW
Permian Basin
Units 5 and 6
Mothball
Oncor modifies
plan to rebuild line
as double circuit
(2013, 2014: see
next slide)
375 MW
2009
2010
2011
Oil =
$53.48/
bbl
Oil =
$71.21/
bbl
Oil =
$87.04/
bbl
Five-Year Transmission Plan (5YTP) Peak Load for 2012
Tab 6
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2012
Oil =
$93.02/
bbl
Actual Peak Load
ERCOT Public
Odessa North Area Planned Improvements
• Fall 2012 – Convert ~10-12 MW load from 69 kV to 138 kV
service
• December 2013 – Rebuild Holt to Goldsmith South 69 kV line as
double circuit 138/ 69 kV line; transfer 20-30 MW of load from 69
kV to 138 kV system (plan initiated in 2010)
• November 2014 – Rebuild Goldsmith South to Odessa North 69
kV line as double circuit 138/ 69 kV line (plan initiated in 2010)
• November 2014 – Rebuild Odessa to Odessa North 138 kV line
(plan initiated in 2010)
• ~$20.3M cost estimate for above upgrades
• Planned improvements solve Odessa North area reliability
problems in near term
• ERCOT and Oncor are continuing to evaluate with latest load
projections
Tab 6
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ERCOT Public
Other West Texas Planned Improvements
•
China Grove-Bluff Creek Planned Improvements
– Located northeast of Midland
• Similar load growth to Odessa North Area
– June 2013 - Faraday/ Willow Valley Switch Station with 345/138 kV
autotransformer will solve reliability issue
• Connects CREZ 345 kV line to existing 138 kV system
• Planned in 2011 as economic project
• ~$14.5M cost estimate
•
San Angelo Red Creek Improvements
– 2012 Congestion caused by forced outage of San Angelo Red Creek
Autotransformer 1
– Autotransformer 1 placed back in service in July
• Solves reliability and congestion problem for 2012
– 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan identified need for additional
autotransformer capacity at San Angelo Red Creek by 2014
– December 2014 – Replace both San Angelo Red Creek 345/138 kV
autotransformers; ~$18.2M cost estimate
Tab 6
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ERCOT Public
Moore-Downie Area Planned Improvements
• Located southwest of San Antonio
• New Uvalde to Castroville 138 kV line will solve
reliability problem
• Approved by ERCOT Board of Directors in August
2006
• Original planned in-service date was June 2010
• Current in-service date projection is December 2012
• ~$76.8M cost estimate
Tab 6
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ERCOT Public
Reliability – Congestion Cost Relationship
Reliability
Economic
Reliability Limit
$
Constraint Loading
Production cost impact of congestion
Price of congestion
*Note: Curves are hypothetical and cost/price curves of a given constraint may differ
Tab 6
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ERCOT Public
Summary
• West Load Zone prices in 2012 remain relatively unchanged
from last year while other Load Zone prices have decreased
– Load in West Texas has increased due to oil field activity
– Prices in the rest of the system reflect lower loads due to lower
temperatures
• The average real-time price difference between the LZ_WEST
and HB_WEST has increased in 2012 versus 2011 due to the
management of overloaded elements.
• ERCOT has applied the “Holistic Solution” that was adopted by
TAC & the Board in 2011 for the following Irresolvable by SCED
constraints
– Odessa North 138/69 kV Autotransformer
– Bluff Creek Switch – China Grove Switch 138kV
• There are a number of Transmission upgrade initiatives that
should improve the West Texas area
Tab 6
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ERCOT Public