OMM WMO WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION AND RESPONSE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

by M.Jarraud

Secretary-General World Meteorological Organization

OMM Weather, water and climate-related hazards WMO Hot & cold spells Droughts

El Niño

Tropical cyclones River basin flooding Storm surges Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Ice Storms Avalanches Storm (winds) Dust storms Hail&Lightning Flash floods Wildland fires & haze Mud & landslides Tornadoes

OMM Global distribution of natural hazards (1993-2002) WMO Windstorms 28% Volcanic eruptions 2% Forest/scrub fires 5% Avalanches and landslides 6% Droughts and famines 9% Earthquakes 8% Extreme Temperatures 5% Floods 37%

OMM Regional distribution of natural disasters (1993-2002) WMO Europe 14% Oceania 3% Africa 21% Americas 20% Asia 42%

OMM WMO Distribution of people killed (1993-2002) High human development 2% Medium human development 32% Low human development 66%

OMM WMO Hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters (1993-2002) 1- Damage (US$billion) 2- Number affected 3- Number killed 3 2 1 0 20 40 Hydrometeorological disasters 60 80 100 Geophysical disasters

OMM WMO 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Evolution of natural disasters and their impacts Nb of reported disasters Nb reported killed (thousands) Nb reported affected (millions) Damage (billions US$) 1970s 1980s 1990s

OMM Climate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impacts WMO In 2100 half of the world population will be under

water stress

Subtropical zones:

Less precipitations; increased desertification

Tropical zones:

Increased health risks

High latitudes:

permafrost decrease

Coastal zones:

coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water intrusions Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion US Dollars per year (Munich Re)

OMM International Framework WMO

ISDR succeeded IDNDR ProVention Several significant Declarations, Agendas and Conventions Millennium Declaration UNFCCC (climate change) UNCCD (desertification) Freshwater Agenda World Summit on Sustainable Development

OMM WMO Role of WMO in disaster management Response Preparedness Mitigation Prevention Recovery Monitoring Forecast and early warnings Vulnerability analysis and risk assessment Applications (agriculture, water resources, etc)

OMM WMO’s contribution to natural disaster mitigation and reduction WMO

Adopting a framework for guidance and monitoring of disaster reduction

Risk identification Knowledge management Risk management applications Preparedness and emergency management Governance support

OMM Risk Identification WMO Monitoring Early warnings for weather water or climate related disasters Adaptation measures Vulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis

OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (1)

OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (2)

OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (3)

OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (4)

OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (5) 900 Argo floats in operation by mid-2003. By 2005, some 3 000 floats are planned.

OMM Risk Identification: Early warnings (1) WMO Ensemble Pred. tools Global models Limited Area models Nowcasting tools 120 h 96 h 72 h 48 h EPS, Probabilities Global models 24 h L.A. models Nowcasting Warnings Activities Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD)

OMM Risk Identification: Early warnings (2) WMO Strike probability (within 65 nm) of Typhoon Rusa over the next 120 hours.

Starting time of the forecast is 27 August 2002 12 UTC.

Full dots give the observed position over the period 27 August to 1 September 2002

GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS

OMM Risk Identification: Early warnings (3) WMO

Observational data are needed for the study of climate variability and issue of warnings for climate related disasters - issued from weeks to seasons in advance if adequate climate predictions are available Regular assessments and authoritative statements on climate variability Climate alert system for early warnings on pending significant climate anomalies

OMM Risk Identification: Early warnings (4) WMO

WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP)

is monitoring and issuing El Niño outlooks, which alerts governments to prepare to El Niño related anomalies

Regional Climate Outlook

– important development for evaluation of seasonal forecasts

Forums

have become regular meetings in some regions, where NMHSs meet to discuss global climate model outputs and develop regional and local use

consensus seasonal forecasts

for

OMM Risk Identification: Adaptation measures WMO

Adaptation is a response measure promoted by the UNFCC and early warning systems are one way of reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity to weather events and climate change. Enhanced collaboration is needed between the climate and disaster reduction communities to the implementation of measures as environmental planning, data and information pooling, improved observation systems, best practices exchange, strengthened technical cooperation, and close collaboration with policy makers.

OMM Risk Identification: Vulnerability assessment WMO

Linkage between climate and disaster databases to assess different vulnerabilities.

A pilot project is on going in Chile linking climate with flood disaster databases with the support of WMO through the World Climate Programme as part of the activities of IATF working Groups on Climate and Disasters and on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

OMM Risk Identification: Hazard analysis WMO Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk communication among policy makers and communities.

Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use and city planning.

WMO will continue to assist NMHSs in developing and managing climate databases, through the Data Rescue and Climate Database Management Projects.

OMM Knowledge Management (1) WMO Many

hazards associated with high-impact weather

involve smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation) Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast information WMO’s

World Weather Research Programme

- support to cooperative international research projects and experiments (e.g.

THORPEX

) - translate research findings into policy and operational actions for high impact weather phenomena

OMM Knowledge Management (2) WMO

User education and awareness are essential:

to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topics to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the NMHSs are understood by the intended users to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparedness to enable emergency management authorities to make well informed decisions

WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme

contributes to this effort for the interpretation of forecasts and warnings

OMM Risk Management Applications (1) WMO

The Associated Programme on Flood Management

Promotes the concept of Integrated Flood Management across sectors Collect case studies and conducts pilot projects to mitigate flood-related disasters and to develop community approaches to flood management.

Application of a set of guidelines and best practice for use by NHSs for existing and planned activities in flood management

OMM Risk Management Applications (2) WMO

WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme

Provides guidance on the development of support systems for sustainable land management and agro-climatic zoning with the active participation of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology.

OMM Preparedness and emergency management WMO

Timely and accurate

forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with

adequate local preparedness

planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction Optimal response to natural disasters requires

effective coordination and cooperation

between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levels WMO will support the NMHSs to establish and enhance

partnerships between NMHSs and the national authorities and organizations involved in the natural disaster reduction activities

to improve preparedness and emergency planning

OMM Governance Support WMO Legislation and adequate normative framework are essential to implement risk management.

Political commitment is crucial to allocate the necessary resources.

Contributions of NMHSs need to be integrated in national disaster management plans.

WMO is supporting NMHSs to promote natural disaster reduction and mitigation as national priority action by the Governments.

OMM Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1) WMO Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003) Recognized the significant role WMO and NMHSs play in international disaster reduction activities concerning mitigation of, and preparedness for, natural disasters of meteorological or hydrological origin Decided to initiate a new WMO major programme on

Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

(building on all relevant WMO crosscutting Programmes programme to and activities) enhance as a international cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural disaster activities

OMM Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2) WMO To develop an effective and efficient mechanism to provide, in an integrated fashion, the

WMO response to the requirements and needs of Members and international community

concerning disaster reduction in light of related developments To encourage and assist Members in developing/enhancing

NMHSs contribution to national disaster preparedness

programmes in a more fully integrated manner, especially in coordination with

national civil defence/disaster coordination offices

OMM Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3) WMO To ensure that activities and results of relevant WMO Programmes are fully used in the process of the WMO’s participation in the

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)

To enhance WMO’s role and recognition as one of the leading international organizations dealing with disaster reduction, in particular through

active participation in high-level global fora and related activities

OMM International Framework (1) WMO Natural disasters affect all countries, but

burden falls disproportionately on developing countries

Support to natural disaster reduction is both an issue of

sustainable development

and a matter of

environmental justice

requiring

international solidarity

OMM International Framework (2) WMO ISDR succeeded IDNDR Several significant Declarations, Agendas and Conventions: Millennium Declaration UNFCCC (climate change) UNCCD (desertification) Freshwater Agenda World Summit on Sustainable Development

OMM Conclusions (1) Need for an integrated approach WMO

National and regional levels

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Cooperation across disciplines and agencies Links with academic community

International level

Between IGOs and NGOs concerned Capacity building and transfer of technology activities

OMM Conclusions (2) Need for an integrated approach WMO

In multiple domains

observations communications data processing (incl NWP) …

Accross disciplines

OMM WMO