A Discussion of the

Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems

Presented to the World Future Society July 30, 2007

David Keenan Steven Vetter Hank Lederer

Roadmaps

• Semiconductor Roadmaps for example – Equipment – Materials – Processes – Market and applications

Source: Sematech

DRAM Feature Size

DRAM Technology Options Roadmap

Source: Sematech

Source: Sematech

Semiconductor Roadmap Technology Characteristics

Nanotechnology Development

• Phase 1 – 2000-2005 – In products today • Phase 2 -

Passive nanoparticles Active nanoparticles

– 2005-2010 – In development and demonstration • Phase 3 -

Nanosystems

– 2010-2015 • Phase 4 -

Molecular Manufacturing

– Beyond 2015

Categories of Nanotechnology

• Four categories: – Top down, not atomically precise (like chips) – Top down, atomically precise (can’t be done) – Bottom-up, not atomically precise (like spray-on materials) – Bottom-up, atomically precise • Highest value-added • Lowest waste • Most complex, multi-disciplinary • Enables large variety of products made by molecular nanosystems • Highly disruptive technology • Need a Roadmap to guide R&D

Terminology

Nanosystems

• Interacting nanoscale structures, components, and devices

Functional nanosystems

• Nanosystems that process material, energy, or information

Advanced functional nanosystems

• Functional nanosystems that incorporate one or more nanoscale components that have atomically precise structures

Productive nanosystems

• Functional nanosystems that make atomically precise structures, components, and devices under programmable control

Atomically precise manufacturing

• Essential for advanced functional nanosystems and productive nanosystems

Summary of Roadmap Vision Elements for Productive Nanosystems Technology • Revolutionize the chemical/materials industry by synthesizing nanostructured materials • Aid in manufacturing platform nanomaterial building blocks to create novel nanostructured material formulations • Require fundamental understanding of structure-property-processing relationships at the nanoscale to accelerate development • Require a toolkit of kinetic and thermodynamic modeling capabilities and a database on key nanomaterial building block properties • Offer new synthetic methodologies based on understanding of nanoscale physics, chemistry, and engineering principles • Offer new approaches to manufacturing nanomaterial building blocks and nanocomposites due to its biological inspiration • Enable high-throughput nanoscale screening reactors to create novel material solutions and reveal unique structure-property relationships

Stages of Technology Development

Roadmap Leaders

With contributions from • Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) • NanoBusiness Alliance (NBA) • Nano Science and Technology Institute (NSTI) • Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) • Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO)

Steering Committee

Dr. Paul Alivasatos Dr. Mauro Ferrari Doon Gibbs William A. Goddard III Dr. William A. Haseltine Steve Jurvetson Alex Kawczak Charles M. Lieber Scott Mize John Randall Jim Roberto Nadrian Seeman Rick Snyder Dr. J. Fraser Stoddart Ted Waitt

Roadmap Goals •

Produce a document that is “actionable”

•

Articulate why APM, AFN, & Productive Nanosystems are important, and their critical impact on the development of nanotechnology in multiple timeframes

•

Assess the current state of Atomically Precise Manufacturing development

•

Identify enabling technologies for development of Advanced Functional Nanosystems & Productive Nanosystems

Roadmap Goals continued •

Develop scenarios of the possible development pathways

•

Identify early applications to serve as drivers

•

Propose “next steps” in collaborative R&D for each pathway targeted at critical enabling technologies necessary to develop prototypes

•

Identify critical issues for each pathway and prioritize the shortcomings of existing enabling technology platforms

•

Provide usable metrics for measuring progress

Benefits of Productive Nanosystems Technology Roadmap • Multidisciplinary framework to shape the visions of future Industry Roadmaps • Help companies in developing strategic technology plans, including alliance opportunities with other companies • Basis for coordinating technology research goals and development programs across industries • Prioritizes major unmet needs and sets technology development targets to fulfill these needs • Aids in forecasting emerging technology platforms • Identifies emerging value growth opportunities

Estimated Multi-Industry Impact of Nanotechnology Exceeds $1 Trillion by 2015

Sustainability $45 B Healthcare $30 B Tools $20 B Aerospace $70 B Chemical Manufacture $100 B Materials $340 B Pharmaceuticals $180 B Electronics $300 B

Source: National Science Foundation

Productive Nanosystems: Capabilities and Applications

Levels of Productive Capability Some Applications Control of Some Atomically Precise Products monomer sequence in a chain

designer catalysts binders for directing engineered membranes water purification

Control of monomer positions in a solid

self assembly polymeric nanoparticles ceramic nanoparticles smart therapeutic devices molecular electronic petabyte RAM devices fuel cell membranes thin, flexible solar cell arrays •

Control of

semiconductor chips programmable cell

atomic

devices superstrong repair systems

positions in a

smart materials

solid

superstrong nanoelectric circuits fibers productive

advanced materials

•

clean energy production

•

clean water

•

improved health care

•

improved computation

•

improved transportation

molecular machines nanosystems aerospace composites

Percentage of Roadmap:

Horizon I Horizon II Horizon III Horizon IV

NNI and other Funding

• National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) has devoted an average of $1 Billion per year to US R&D since 2001 • Rest of world governments ~ $4 B/yr

Complexity vs. Cost of Phases

• Many simple nanomaterials have been developed within NNI grant budgets • Several complex nanomaterials are being demonstrated; costs are higher, more time • Nanosystems may involve more budget than NNI can sustain, and longer timelines • Molecular manufacturing has received very little NNI funding, so far

Possible Pathways

• Dry – diamondoid – Nanorex, Zyvex • Wet – DNA/RNA – life chemistry – DNA Walker / Seeman, Rothmund • Wet/Dry – combinatorial chemistry – Rungs and ladders / Schafmeister

Indications and Implications of Nanotechnology Progress Near and far future impacts in • Medicine • Energy • Environment / Sustainability • Manufacturing • Security / Military • Space Development • Computation

Medicine / Pharmaceuticals

• Gold nanoparticles attach to cancer cells and permit non invasive IR heating

Nanoscale Medical Devices

Nanomedicine

by Robert A. Freitas Jr. Volume I 1999 Volume IIA 2003 Volume IIB in progress Volume III planned First thorough analysis of possible applications of molecular nanotechnology to medicine and medical devices

Respiriocytes

Artificial mechanical red blood cell ~1 micron dia. sphere Diamondoid 1000-atm pressure vessel Deliver 236x more O 2 than natural red cells 18 billion structural atoms plus 9 billion O 2

Clottocytes

• Artificial mechanical blood platelet • Response time 100-1000x faster than natural system • ~ 2 micron spheres release locally sticky mesh that traps blood cells to stop bleeding

Artificial Neurons

• Batteries for pluggable hybrid vehicles

Energy

• Hydrogen storage for fuel cells • Solar energy

Energy

MIT nanowires for Li ion batteries Gold and cobalt oxide self-assembled on modified virus

Environment / Sustainability

• Craig Venter Synthetic Genomics minimal lifeforms – Method for modified microorganisms plants to produce ethanol directly from cellulose – Another to produce hydrogen directly from sunlight

Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels •

MicroFab

technologies – ink jet

Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels • Nanosolar, Inc. – direct printing • NJIT – printing and directly painted-on

Design for Molecular Manufacturing

Modeling for Molecular Manufacturing Source Nanorex

Desktop Manufacturing

Convergent assembly using highly parallel systems

Desktop Manufacturing

• • Nanorex NanoEngineer-1 Play nanofactory.mov 5 min

Surveillance

• Ubiquitous Surveillance • Sensors/Transmitters shrink –> smart dust • Can see what everyone is doing – stop crime – Privacy vs. security – Who watches the watchers?

DARPA Sensor Challenge

Security / Military

• Military Intelligence is not just an oxymoron – It provides a strong edge in conflict • National immune system • MIT’s ISN Institute for Soldier Nanotechnologies • Personal enhanced immune system • Weapons disarmament • Volatile transitions http://web.mit.edu/ISN/

Space Development

• Materials with 80x strength/weight ratio of Al or Steel • Private orbital craft • Finally realize Gerard K. O’Neill’s vision of Space Settlements

Island One

Inside Island One

Larger Settlement

Space Development

• Eventually, colonize other star systems • Mobile space settlement – Constant (1-g) acceleration / deceleration – Carry portable fusion generator – Get to Alpha Centauri in about 8 years (4 subjective years) • Alternatively, teleportation – Move receiver/assembler to destination • Can use laser-propelled solar sail – Analyze molecular structure of people / objects – Transmit analysis – Assemble copy

Electronics / Computation

• K. Eric Drexler’s PhD Thesis (MIT) –

Nanosystems

• 1992 Computer Science book of the year

Rod Logic

Sugar-cube-size computer 10 15 MIPS

Electronics / Computation

• Ray Kurzweil forecasts human-level intelligence ~2020 • Once achieved, “evolution” will greatly accelerate

Productive Nanosystems

New Futures in • Medicine • Energy • Environment / Sustainability • Manufacturing • Security / Military • Space Development • Computation

Roadmap Status

International Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems to be unveiled October 9-10, 2007 in Arlington, VA

For a complete program, see www.foresight.org or www.sme.org/nanosystems

Q & A

• Which path do you favor?

• When will we see productive nanosystems?

David Keenan – [email protected]

Steve Vetter – [email protected]

Hank Lederer – [email protected]