Championing Nanotech Innovation: Lessons Learned

Presented by Christine Peterson Vice President, Foresight Institute Accelerating Change 2004 November 2004 © Foresight Institute 2004 www.foresight.org

What is nanotechnology?

• Creating and using structures, devices, and systems that have useful properties and functions because of their structure at the 1 to 100 nanometer size • Today, same as chemistry and materials science (sexy marketing term) • Longer-term: combines with mechanical engineering to give molecular manufacturing

Funding levels rising

• U.S. Nanotech Nanotech Initiative $3.7 billion over 4 years (plus military) authorized • European Union and Japan gov’ts spending roughly similar to U.S.

• Other Asian nations, Australia, Israel also competing. India wants in.

• China has cost advantage • Increasing amounts being spent in private sector; figures vary widely; can rationalize almost any number

Near-term products (< 5 yrs): Mostly materials

• • Drug delivery, medical implants, sensors (bio & chemical), solar energy (photovoltaic or direct hydrogen production), batteries, displays & e-paper, nanotube and nanoparticle composites, catalysts, coatings, alloys, insulation (thermal & electrical), filters, glues, abrasives, lubricants, paints, fuels & explosives, textiles, hard drives, computer memory, optical components, etc.

Not an integrated “industry” — products in many industries incremental

Near-term: Nanoparticles

• • • Just one sector of today’s nanotech • Positive example: gold-coated particles with biological functionality bind to tumor cells and then heated, to treat cancer • Concerns about unwanted side effects. Recent result: control of toxicity by design Regulatory agencies need awareness and expertise: environmental protection (EPA), occupational safety (OSHA), food and drug (FDA). Process has begun, not complete.

Similar to regulation of new chemicals

Tools for looking ahead to advanced nanotech

• • • • Laws of physics Laws of economics Laws of human nature Result: technological advance to the limits allowed by nature • • Process does not result in a time estimate Does result in 4th generation nanotech: nanoscale productive systems

Feynman, 1959

“The principles of physics, as far as I can see, do not speak against the possibility of maneuvering things atom by atom. It is not an attempt to violate any laws; it is something, in principle, that can be done; but in practice, it has not been done because we are too big.”

There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom

Molecular manufacturing

• New way of viewing matter • Today, can have atomic precision

or

complex structures, not both large • Want both at the same time • Goal: Direct control down to molecular level, not indirect control as today (e.g. drugs, surgery) for products of any size • Can change/repair structure of all physical things including human body

Basis of advanced nanotech: Molecular machines

• Found in nature (e.g. molecular motors) • Now learning to design and build new molecular machine systems • Goal: nanosystems for manufacturing complex, atomically-precise products of any size (from cubic-micron mainframes to aircraft carriers) • Digital-style control of matter: patterning it as today we write a CD

Differential gear (cutaway)

Standard confusions about molecular machine images

• Mistaken for artist’s conceptions (“pretty pictures”) • Mistaken for final, immutable designs, which — if not perfect now —invalidate molecular machine systems concept • Actually: examples of designs possible with today’s tools plus conservative engineering assumptions: “something

like

this should work, after iteration”

Fine motion controller, partial

Atom contact bearing model (~2 nanometers)

QuickTime™ and a DivX 5.1 decompressor are needed to see this picture.

Convergent assembly using highly parallel systems

Molecular manufacturing of nanosystems (4th gen.)

• Extreme decrease in direct manufacturing costs (not including insurance, legal, IP licensing, etc) • Extreme decrease in pollution: “zero waste” of materials, minimum use of energy • Extreme increase in device complexity possible (e.g. medical nanorobots)

Lessons learned (1976-2004)

• The following are some lessons learned at each stage of the nanotech process to date • Should be useful for other areas of substantial innovation • Some things we did right and succeeded with — some we did wrong and paid the price

Extremely early research stage (late 70’s, early 80’s), pre-competitive

• • • • • Few will understand, no matter what you do Don’t worry about someone stealing your ideas — no one is paying attention • Call your new field by a name that no one will want to redefine (not too sexy or generic) Publish in refereed journals Write technical books Avoid the popular press and public

• • •

Very early research stage (80’s), still pre-competitive

• Hold invitational workshops to find the few others who “get it” − Invitational to keep out the flakes • Teach a Stanford class on your work so that a Steve Jurvetson will attend and later fund relevant work − Not a joke Publish proceedings, refereed journals articles Write technical books Avoid the popular press and public

• • • •

Early research stage (early 90’s), still pre-competitive

• Engage with gov’t research funding process, play the game − Lots of funding sources, sidestep those not interested − Find research allies, esp. experimentalists, get funding circle going − Takes time, political skills, strong stomach Hold invitational conferences Publish proceedings, refereed articles Write technical books Avoid the popular press and public

Early R&D stage (90’s to now)

• • • “Funding gap” Try DARPA Good luck

Early commercialization stage (now)

• • • • Probably better not to put nano in your company name or product name Use the term only where it will help Watch out for regulatory issues (nanoparticle report from Swiss Re) Try Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR), Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs?

Maximizing social benefits of innovation

• Lowering direct costs (industry, w/some government contracts):

In progress

• Lowering IP costs:

Keep basic tools as open source? Nonexclusive licensing? (e.g., HTML)

• Preventing accidents (industry/ government partnership):

Doable: more control enables more responsibility

• Reducing use in war, terrorism (mostly government, w/ industry cooperation):

Very difficult challenge

• Preserving freedom and privacy in a world capable of nanosurveillance

Guidelines for Responsible Development

• Foresight Guidelines Version 4.0: Self Assessment Scorecards for Safer Development of Nanotechnology • Scorecards for nanotech professionals, industry, and government policy • Ongoing process: your comments greatly encouraged • www.foresight.org/guidelines

“Sounds like science fiction”

• If you’re trying to look far ahead, and what you see seems like science fiction, it might be wrong.

• But if it doesn’t seem like science fiction, it’s definitely wrong.

For more information

• • • • • www.foresight.org — main site, includes large section on Nanomedicine nanodot.org — searchable news site Abstracts for recent 1st Conference on Advanced Nanotechnology, Oct. 22-24, 2004 Foresight Vision Weekend 2005 Books:

Nanomedicine Vol. I and II, Engines of Creation, Nanosystems