Nanotechnology From 1959 to 2029

Challenges & Opportunities: The Future of Nano & Bio Technologies Chris Phoenix

Overview

Important time periods ➲ Feynman to mid-80's ➲ 1986 to 2007 ➲ 2008 to 2022 ➲ 2022 to 2029 Important technologies ➲ Nanoscale technologies ➲ Molecular manufacturing ➲ Other significant technologies

Before “Nanotechnology”

➲ Richard Feynman, 1959: “There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom” ➲ Colloids ➲ Electron microscopes ➲ Von Neumann ➲ Early 80's: Drexler publishes peer reviewed articles

Mid 1980's: Nanotechnology

Begins

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ Drexler publishes

Engines of Creation

Foresight Institute founded “Grey goo” worries begin “Universal assembler,” “disassembler” “Nanotechnology”

Early Molecular Manufacturing

➲ Based on biology ● Small manufacturing systems ➲ ● Organic-like chemistry High performance ➲ Large potential impact ➲ Attracted transhumanists, cryonicists, etc.

Molecular Manufacturing's Power

Scaling laws Low friction and wear General-purpose manufacturing Highly reliable operation High material strength Inexpensive material (carbon)

Skepticism

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ How can a machine reproduce?

Won't quantum uncertainty...?

How can you power it?

How can you control it?

Chemistry is too unreliable!

Nanomedicine

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ Build with molecules --> meet cells at their own level.

Small and numerous --> whole body interventions Respirocytes, etc.

1999: Freitas -->

Nanomedicine I 1996-2002: Vasculoid

Vasculoid: Replace Blood

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ 150 trillion plates lining blood vessels 166 T boxes transport molecules and cells inside hollow tube Avoid bleeding, poisons, metastasized cancer, etc.

Extremely aggressive but appears possible 111 pages long, 587 references

1990's: Concepts Mature

➲ ● ● ● Drexler publishes

Nanosystems Lots of physics analysis Diamondoid Nanofactories

➲ ●

Largely ignored outside community Other “nanotechnology”

➲

Skepticism (e.g. SciAm)

Physics of Nanosystems

 Scaling Laws  Power density ~ L^-1  Component density ~ L^-3  Operation frequency ~ L^-1  Relative throughput ~ L^-4  Atom-scale Physics  Superlubricity  Discrete dimensions  Quantum phenomena

2000: Nanotech Goes Mainstream

➲ National Nanotechnology Initiative ● ● $1B per year for nanotech Nanotech defined as anything small and interesting ➲ ● “Why The Future Doesn't Need Us” Stated that one “oops” could destroy the world with grey goo ➲ Strong incentive to marginalize molecular manufacturing

Nanoscale Technologies

Build small objects and structures Use big machines Limited product range Diverse but limited applications Lots of cool physics tricks Not just one technology; not even a family Materials, not products

2000-2007

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ Nanoscale tech advances in many directions Nanoparticle concerns CRN founded Dec. 2002 Drexler/Smalley debate NMAB report Opposition to MM slowly fades

Nanoscale tech in the stone age

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ Unlock natural properties Access the small stuff indirectly Very sophisticated techniques needed Useful and complex products Limited flexibility ➲ Ask a flint knapper to make a gear...

(Ask a flint knapper what good a gear is...)

2000-2007 (continued)

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ Nanofactory architecture matures Foresight/Battelle Productive Nanosystems Roadmap NanoRex Zyvex Nanofactory Collaboration Ideas Factory

Nanofactory Architecture

➲ ● ● ● ● “Design of a Primitive Nanofactory” Chris Phoenix, Oct. 2003, JETpress Demonstrate that nanofactories could be bootstrapped quickly Physical architecture, power, redundancy, product specification and capabilities, bootstrapping time, etc., etc.

73 pages

Burch/Drexler Nanofactory

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ “Productive Nanosystems: From Molecules To Superproducts” Video released July 2005 Introduced planar assembly Obsoleted about ¼ of Primitive Nanofactory paper

NIAC Contract

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ With Tee Toth-Fejel Developed bootstrapping concepts Fleshed out planar-assembly nanofactory architecture Showed one of many ways to develop exponential manufacturing

“Tattoo Needle” architecture

Recent tech advances

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ Oyabu: Pick and place silicon atoms Schafmeister: rigid biopolymer Rothemund: DNA staples Freitas, Merkle, Drexler, Allis: mechanosynthesis studies Seeman: DNA building DNA

2008-2015

➲ ● ● ● Nanoscale tech continues Better computers Medicine(!) Materials ➲ ● Sensors Molecular manufacturing continues ● ● ● More scanning probe chemistry Better designs More mainstream acceptance

2016-2022

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ Diamond fabrication by SPM Push for a nanofactory (may happen earlier) Nanoscale science matures Nanoscale tech keeps growing, needs better manufacturing Recognition of MM implications??

Nanofactory??

2023-2029

General-purpose nanotech manufacturing accelerates other ● technologies Medicine ● ● ● ● Brain/machine interface Spaceflight Computers/networks/sensors Planet-scale engineering(?)

Bootstrapping Options

➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ Direct diamond synthesis (Freitas) Biopolymer machines (Drexler) Molecular building blocks (Toth Fejel) Top-down manufacturing (Hall) Other covalent solids

Development Cost of MM

In 1980's, tens or hundreds of $B In 1990's, a few $B In 2000's, several hundred $M In 2010's, tens of $M In 2020's, a few $M (This is for a ten-year program) Would have been worth it in 1980!

Conclusion

➲ ➲ ➲ Molecular manufacturing will be developed soon This is where nanotechnology is going It will be more powerful, and more impactful, than we can easily imagine