Transcript Photovoltaics for Today and Tomorrow

Photovoltaics for
Today
and
Tomorrow
“Evolving World of Environment, Energy, &
Geospatial Information "
JSEM, May 23, 2007
Columbus, Ohio
Darel Preble
chair, Space Solar Power Workshop
www.sspi.gatech.edu
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The first solar powered satellite, Vanguard I, was launched
with the first solar cells providing 10 mW of power on
March 17, 1958. It broadcast for six years.
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Both solar thermal
and photovoltaic
(PV) are important
solar power sources.
Either provides
“peaking power” for
about 25-30% of the
day. The US solar
market is 95%
photovoltaic. We
will focus on PV at
JSEM today. –
www.businessweek.com/innovate/c
ontent/may2007/id20070517_2321
55.htm?chan=innovation_innovati
on+%2B+design_top+stories
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PV cell and module production (2006)
While the PV industry has been facing a severe silicon
feedstock shortage during 2006, production of cells and
modules continued strong growth. Since 2004, average
contract prices for securing long-term supplies of polysilicon
have skyrocketed, more than doubling to $70 per kilogram.
Sharp maintained its top position, followed by Germany's
second-place Q-Cells, which reduced Sharp’s lead. Japanese
producers dropped from 46% to 39% share globally, to the
benefit of Chinese cell manufacturers.
-- Research and Markets, Apr 25, 2007 (www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c55075)
-
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• 2006 world PV production up 30 percent to 2.1 GW
• About 0.03% of worldwide electricity is generated
from photovoltaic power.
• Total renewable generation in the U.S. is projected to
grow by 1.5 percent per year, from 357 billion
kilowatthours in 2005 to 519 billion kilowatthours in
2030 (EIA - AEO2007).
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The World's largest solar boat competition
Nearly 900 students on 41 teams competed in the fifth annual Solar Cup competition
sponsored by the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California at Lake
Skinner. The three-day event was the result of a six-month education program
in which high school students applied engineering and math skills, and learned
about water conservation and resource-management. The teams were
sponsored with grants of $3,000 by local water agencies, municipalities,
service clubs and other supporters. Diamond Bar High School's team took
home the Solar Cup first-place traveling trophy for the second consecutive year
-- this year winning the new Veteran category.
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PV Performance Breakthoughs
• Sandia National Labs measured SunPower's SPR-315 solar
panel at the highest recorded conversion efficiency ever
tested by Sandia for a commercially available, mass
produced solar panel. Sandia measured the efficiency of
Sunpower’s SPR-315 solar panel at 19.7 percent, with an
actual power output of 321.65 watts.
• PHOTON Magazine's "Buyers Market Module Survey"
states that SunPower holds the efficiency record for
production solar cells and panels. - “SunPower Modules Recognized
for Superior Quality and Efficiency”, San Jose, Calif., April 18, 2007 SunPower
Corporation (SPWR)
www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDB1EF76B%2D6546%2D41
3A%2D98E3%2D455E5EA7F9A9%7D
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PV Performance Breakthoughs (cont)
Boeing-Spectrolab created a solar cell with 40.7%
conversion efficiency - "the highest efficiency level any
photovoltaic device has ever achieved“. - “Solar cell breakthrough
claimed”, Thomas Claburn, www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=196602149
•
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PV Performance Breakthoughs (cont)
Rice University's Center for Biological and Environmental
Nanotechnology has revealed a new method for producing
quantum dots that could enable better, cheaper solar
panels. Principal investigator Michael Wong’s new method
making four-legged cadmium selenide quantum dots much
more easily. -“Quantum dot recipe may lead to cheaper solar panels”, Houston,
May 2, 2007 www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-05/ru-qdr050207.php#
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PV Performance Breakthoughs (cont.)
•
Researchers at Wake Forest University's Center for
Nanotechnology and Molecular Materials have doubled the
efficiency of flexible organic or plastic solar cells to
more than 6 percent in less than two years. Efficient plastic
solar cells are extremely desirable because they are
inexpensive and light weight, compared to traditional
silicon solar panels. - “Plastic solar cell efficiency breaks record at
Nanotechnology Center”, 19-Apr-2007, www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-04/wfupsc041907.php
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Wal-Mart Stores purchases solar arrays from BP
Solar, SunEdison LLC, and PowerLight
Solar power arrays will be installed on 22 of Walmart’s stores
and warehouses in Hawaii and California. When fully
implemented, the aggregate purchase could be one of the U.S.,
if not the world's, top-10 largest ever solar power initiatives.
Each solar power system will provide up to 30 percent of the
store’s power. Walmart’s new solar arrays will be maintained
under a long term energy supply contract, while keeping the
Renewable Energy Credits. - “Wal-Mart to Install Photovoltaic Systems on 22
Stores”, May 7, 2007 www.solarbuzz.com/News/NewsNAPR796.htm
and www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BF55F08E4-7472-4DBA-942D3BFEF3192954%7D&siteid=nbk
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PV market installations show
Germany continues to lead the
race.
Spain grew by 200% in 2006
and the US by 33%, thanks to
Congress extending the 30%
solar energy investment tax
credit for U.S. homeowners
through the end of 2008 and
major state PV legislation led
by California’s Solar Initiative
(CSI) -
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California Solar Initiative
• 3.3 Billion dollars to create 3,000 megawatts of new, solar
electricity by 2017- www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi
• Residential and commercial customers will receive
incentives of $2.50 per watt and will be eligible for
additional federal tax credits.
• Government and non-profit organizations will receive
$3.25 per watt to compensate for their lack of access to the
federal tax credit as non-taxable entities.
• Incentives for solar energy systems greater than 100
kilowatts will be paid monthly based on the actual energy
produced over five years. Starting in 2010, those incentives
change to systems over 30 kilowatts.
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www.dsireusa.org
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May 16 the Department of Energy announced the first round
winners of Solar America Showcases (SAS) for FY 2007
technical assistance. SAS is part of President Bush’s Solar
America Initiative to make solar energy cost competitive by
2015. A new call for SAS proposals will close on July 10.
The DOE will help evaluate the technical feasibility of:
• Forest City Military Communities, Oahu - “Residential
Hybrid Solar Electric & Thermal Systems in Hawaii.” incorporating hybrid solar-thermal electric systems.
• Orange County, Florida, for “Photovoltaic Demonstration
and Research Facility & Family Learning Center.” - placing
an 800-kW photovoltaic system on Orange County
Convention Center, the second largest convention center in
the southeastern U.S.
• City of San Jose, California, for “Smart Solar Initiative.” multiple large building complexes in San Jose for solar
photovoltaic and thermal applications.
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While average retail
solar modules are
relatively stable, thinfilm prices are
continuing to show
aggressive pricing,
now 31% below
crystalline module
prices (May 2007).
Analysts expect this
trend to continue, as
thin-film uses 100
times less material.
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The total market for commercial solar cell production
equipment will grow from $1.2 billion in 2006 to $4.5
billion in 2010, primarily for the older industry segments
c-Si (crystalline silicon) and amorphous silicon (a-Si).
“The real growth in the solar cell market will be in
equipment for newer thin film technologies; cadmium
telluride (CdTe - 26% of thin-film market) and Copper
Indium (Gallium) Diselenide (CIGS - 10% of thin-film
market). Key innovations are roll-to-roll equipment and
printable CIGS inks instead of sputtering and CVD.”
- Information Network, New Tripoli, Penn.
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Compound annual growth rates of c-Si and a-SI will be
around 40% between 2006 and 2010, while CdTe is projected
to exhibit a CAGR of nearly 75 percent, and CIGS a strong
200 percent. - “Solar gear market shines”, by Mark LaPedus, EETimes, from
www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=198701402
Chateau
Montelena
Winery is
installing
a new 220 kW
solar system.
www.solarbuzz.com/News/NewsNAP
R794.htm
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The "warnings could not be more alarming," said Rep.
Edward Markey, D-Mass., chairman of the House Select
Committee on Energy Independence and Climate
Change, "but this report also gives much reason for hope.
We know what we need to do to protect the planet. The
only question is whether we have the wisdom to do so in
time to make a difference."
- “Climate Plan Arms World for Key
Talks”, Associated Press, By Michael Casey, May 4, 2007
www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/05/04/ap3688144.html
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“It will require more than a decade to transition our
civilization away from our heavy dependence on oil.
Nothing close to the efforts envisaged have yet begun.
- Testimony by Robert Hirsch, SAIC, at the Pentagon and U.S. Congressional Committee
on Energy and Commerce hearing, from the "Hirsch Report", commissioned by the
Department of Energy http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/hearings/12072005Hearing1733/hearing.htm and
"Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management
www.netl.doe.gov/otiic/World_Oil_Issues/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
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The most current and authoritative research predicts global
oil production to peak during the 2008 to 2018 timeframe.
We will never "run out" of petroleum; "In a worst-case
scenario, global oil production may reach its peak in 2008,
before starting to decline. In a best-case scenario, this peak
would not be reached until 2018. These estimates are made
by Fredrik Robelius, whose doctoral dissertation estimates
future oil production". www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070330100802.h
tm and
www.peakoil.net/GiantOilFields.html
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The most current and authoritative research predicts global
coal production to peak around 2025.
"Peak coal by 2025 say researchers", by Dr. Werner Zittel
and Jörg Schindler
www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf
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We have until now considered -“Peaking units”, such as
wind or terrestrial solar, may provide power for 25-30%
of a good day, (on average).
Space Solar Power (SSP), however, is “baseload”
available 99% of the year from GeoSynchronous Orbit.
(Baseload nuclear or coal plants, typically running 24/7,
are actually available only 90% of the year.)
SPS requires no fuel and has no operations personnel –
it is an antenna – with farms underneath. SSP is the
cleanest source of virtually unlimited baseload energy.
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Clean?
Safe? Reliable?
Baseload?
Fossil Fuel
No
Yes
Decades remaining
Yes
Nuclear
No
Yes
Fuel very limited
Yes
Wind Power
Yes
Yes
No, intermittent
No
Ground Solar
Yes
Yes
No, intermittent
No
Hydro
Yes
Yes
No; drought; complex scheduling
Bio-fuels
Yes
Yes
Very limited quantities - competes
directly with food production. *
SSP
Yes
Yes
Yes
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Yes
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"We are in the beginning stages of major changes to
agricultural markets caused by rapidly expanding production
of bio-fuels.“
– Credit Suisse Group, in “Corn Is Booming as Ethanol Heats Up”,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116260858542413472.html
Although that is only one-seventh the quantity President Bush foresees for
2015, that demand has pushed corn to near-record prices. “If all the corn
produced in America in 2005 were dedicated to ethanol production it
would reduce U.S. demand for gasoline by, at most, 12 percent...
– “A bumper crop of unintended consequences”,
http://news.bostonherald.com/editorial/view.bg?articleid=180746
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"75,000 Mexicans stood up in
Mexico City’s giant Zocalo
plaza to denounce the rising
price of tortillas...
“Calderon stole the elections,
and now he’s stealing the
tortillas!” screamed a banner...
To reach Bush’s 20 percent goal, corn production must grow to 167
percent of its 2005 levels, and every kernel must go into ethanol. Corn
is also the major feed/ingredient for chickens, pigs, cattle; milk, cheese,
eggs, hamburger, Coke, Pepsi, Jack Daniels, etc., ... By weight, a
McDonald’s hamburger is 52% corn. - “A bumper crop of unintended consequences”,
February 3, 2007 http://news.bostonherald.com/editorial/view.bg?articleid=180746
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“The 111 ethanol refineries now in operation, the 75 under
construction or expansion, and others still being planned,
would be able to use 10 billion bushels of corn a year by
2009 — about the same as the entire 2006 crop. The price of
pig feed has gone up 25 per cent since the US summer, he
said, "and it's not the price so much as the fact that it's just
not available“ - Dave Warner, National Pork Producers
Council.
"The days of the United States meat industry in its current
state appear to be numbered. The gates are down. The lights
are flashing. Does anyone see the train coming?" - " David Nelson,
agribusiness analyst for Credit Suisse Group. - “Ethanol fuels concern of US farmers“
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/ethanol-fuels-concern-of-usfarmers/2007/01/28/1169919212154.html
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2002
2005
What should be America’s Goal in Space?
32%
35%
Build satellites in Earth orbit to collect solar energy to beam to utilities
on Earth
23%
17%
Develop the technology to deflect asteroids or comets that might
destroy the Earth
13%
10%
No Opinion
4%
10%
Send humans to Mars
2%
7%
Search for life on other planets
6%
7%
Build a human colony in space
3%
6%
Develop a passenger rocket to send tourists into space
5%
4%
Build a base on the moon for humans to use for moon exploration
11%
2%
None of the above, we should stop spending money on space
1%
2%
None of the above
- Thomas Matula and Karen Loveland, " Public Attitudes toward Different Space Goals: Building Public
Support for the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) “, Proceedings of Space 2006: 10th International
Conference on Engineering, Construction, and Operations in Space, Houston, TX, March 5-8, 2006.
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Space Solar Power
No other energy alternative can so fully, cleanly and
directly address so many of the dangerous, complex and
intractable threats we face:
I. Peak Fossil Fuels – increasing competition for declining global oil
production;
energy cost;
energy security;
nuclear proliferation;
energy-associated terrorism.
II. Escalating climate change – drought, increasing wildfires and hurricanes,
famine, flooding. Food or Fuel production dilemma- rising food costs declining nutrition in our food;
“We truly are standing at the edge of mass extinction” of species.
- Co-author Terry Root of Stanford University.
“Things are happening and happening faster than we expected,”
- Co-author Patricia Romero Lankao, National Center for
Atmospheric Research. - “Climate report sounds dire warnings - Gobal warming
effects could mean hundreds of millions without water” March 10, 2007, Associated
Press www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17554963/
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There is a tried and true vehicle, that could initiate SSP
construction today.
A private Congressionally chartered corporation has all
the requisite advantages. Comsat Corp., chartered in 1962,
opened space for communication satellites - when we knew
little about space, rockets or space communications.
Communications satellites are now a $100 Billion industry
per year. The “Sunsat Act” would accomplish the same
task, creating a space solar power industry of much greater
size.
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No company(s) or agency(s), however, is prepared to assume
the immense financial risk of initiating construction of an
SSPS.
There are simply too many engineering, financial, regulatory
and managerial risks for any group we have been able to
identify to undertake SSP today.
But this road has been well traveled by America before ...
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Trans-Continental Railroad
“Cape Horn at The Head of The Great American Canon”,
…- Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper, April 27, 1878
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More recently, Congress chartered Comsat Corp.in 1962 to build
communications satellites. Comsat Corp. opened space to the
diverse $100+ Billion per year communications satellite business
of today. Congress should charter a new corporation, Sunsat
Corp. to build power satellites. Draft legislation for Sunsat, very
much like Comsat, would have all the requisite advantages. We
recommend that congress charter Sunsat Corp.
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This legislation would provide a launch “subsidy”
to new private or public/ private businesses, such
as SunSat Corp, which are contracting for space
transportation. These would be in the form of
stock transfers and loan guarantees. Zero cost
Sunsat Corp. is aiming for 42,000 flights per year,
nominally. Prices would quickly fall below current
levels once subsidies established such a market
volume. (By comparison Atlanta & Chicago each
had a million takeoffs & landings.)
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Prices drop as flight rate increases
The red dots below are Elon Musk, SpaceX, $1300/lb and Sandia National Laboratories
$20/lb - “Space Sunshade Might Be Feasible”, Nov. 3, 2006,
http://uanews.org/cgi-bin/WebObjects/UANews.woa/wa/MainStoryDetails?ArticleID=13269
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Source:
Ken Zweibel, NREL
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SSP would revitalize America by showing that a multitude
of space-development-related-educational-fields, from
telerobotics to wireless power transfer and environmental
sciences, are vitally relevant to these great problems.
Greatly reduced launch costs, the key enabler, will provide
unprecedented access to space and space operations
including products we can merely dream of today,
beginning with SSP - offering clean reliable baseload
power delivery and global energy security.
Choosing to charter an SSP corporation would
be another “giant leap for mankind.”
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Draft legislation for the Sunsat Act
is available at
www.sspi.gatech.edu/sunsat-how.pdf
Learn more at www.sspi.gatech.edu
FOR MORE INFO...
Email: [email protected]
Or [email protected]
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Thank you for the
opportunity to speak
here at JSEM about
clean baseload solar
power – SSP.
Space Solar
Power can cleanly
repower earth and
build a highway to
the High Frontier…
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SkyWorker
an autononous robot for multi-kilometer size space structures
Credit – Red Whitaker, CMU Robotics,
http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/projects/skyworker/temp/skyworker2.mpg
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The Sun is Shining on Solar
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