Transcript The Islamic Revival and World Politics Kevin J. Benoy

The Islamic Revival and World Politics
Kevin J. Benoy
Background to Islam
• Islam is a religion based
on the teachings of
Mohammed.
• It is the majority religion
in all of the Arab
countries, Turkey, Iran,
Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Malaysia, Indonesia and
the Turkic successor
states of the former
Soviet Union.
Background to Islam
• Mohammed was born
in 570 AD in Mecca.
• His first revelation was
in 610.
• From this and later
revelations came the
Moslem holy book – the
Koran.
Background to Islam
• Islam is more
than just a
religion; it is a
way of life.
• It has a strong
evangelical
streak to it,
with followers
called upon to
spread the
word.
• This has, in the
past, been
done by the
sword as well
as the word.
Background to Islam
• Early on the religion experienced
a fundamental split that
continues to divide it.
• With the murder of the 3rd
Caliph, the prophet’s son-in-law,
Ali, became the leader in 656.
He too was assassinated in 661
and the Governor of Syria
established himself as leader,
instead of Ali’s descendents.
• Today, 90% of Moslems are Sunni
(those who accept the
succession of the Caliph) and
10% Shia (who follow the
descendents of Ali).
• Shia’s form a big majority in Iran,
and a slight majority in Iraq and
Bahrain while Sunnis
predominate elsewhere.
Background to Islam
• Further splits relate to racial
and national divisions.
• Arabs and Persians see
themselves as different, as
do Syrians and Jordanians.
• As with Christians, there are
also divisions between
orthodox practitioners and
those whose faith is more
liberal.
• On the other hand, other
factors pull all Moslems
together – like the yearly
haj.
Islam in the Modern World
• Moslems, like Christians, faced
strong secular pressure in the
last century or so.
• This was further complicated by
the effects of colonialism and
decolonization.
• Pressures within Moslem
societies have been great.
• Modernization has also led to
huge class differences as rural
peasants lived in almost feudal
conditions, while the rich and
upper middle class lived like
westerners.
• Traditional values remain
strongest with the poor and with
those who most strongly
sympathize with them.
Islam and Government
• In many Moslem countries,
Islamic principles underpin
national laws – just as JudeoChristian values lie at the heart
of most Western legal
systems.
• In some, religion is more than
just a philosophical basis as
Islam does not separate beliefs
from actions.
• Some Moslem states
implement Sharia, religious
law. For instance, they forbid
charging interest on loans or
proscribe amputation of a
thief’s right hand.
Islam and Government
• In Saudi Arabia, punishments
today are as they were in the
day of Mohammed.
• Thieves may have a hand
amputated.
• Adulterers are stoned to
death.
• The testimony of a man is
worth twice that of a woman.
• Under Sharia law, corporal
punishment is meted out and
the public invited to attend
floggings. This is very like
what happened in premodern Europe.
The Iranian Revolution
• Under Shah Mohammad
Reza Pahlavi Aryamehr
Iran prospered
economically from the
windfall profits of
petroleum products.
• The country became a
regional political and
military power as the
Shah invested heavily in
US equipment, becoming
the “policeman” of the
Gulf, with American
blessing.
The Iranian Revolution
• While the Shah, his family
and supporters lived in
opulence, little benefit
accrued to the rural and
urban poor.
• Religious leaders objected
to the increasing
secularization of the
country as the Shah
pushed modernization.
• The Shah dismissed calls
for Sharia law as
anachronistic.
The Iranian Revolution
• In addition, the Shah
increasingly relied on brutal
actions by SAVAK – Iran’s
secret police – against critics.
• In doing so, and in his serving
American interests, the Shah
alienated much of the middle
class.
• US involvement in
overthrowing the
democratically elected
government of Iran in 1953 –
to put the Shah in power -was long a source of
resentment of the West.
The Iranian Revolution
• In 1978 things began to spin out of control for the
Shah.
– In January, religious dissidents were fired on in the
religious city of Qom.
– In February there were riots in Tabriz and small towns.
– In May the universities were close and protests and strikes
in the Tehran bazaar became commonplace.
– By late 1978 the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, an exiled
cleric living in Paris, became the symbol of religious
opposition. The clerics refused to compromise with the
government, demanding a return to Islamic principles and
an end to Westernization.
The Iranian Revolution
• Riots and strikes brought
violent responses.
• On September 8 between
100 and 200
demonstrators were
gunned down by security
forces.
• By November, the armed
forces were needed to
back up the police.
• The country was placed
under military rule.
The Iranian Revolution
– The economy collapsed as
little productive work could
be done in an atmosphere of
perpetual strikes and
protests.
– The Shah acknowledged that
he could no longer impose
his will.
– On January 1, 1979, General
Gholam Reza Azhari was
replaced as Prime Minister
by the reformer Shahpur
Bakhtiar, who insisted that
the Shah leave the country –
which he did on January 126
after urging the military to
remain loyal to the new
regime.
The Iranian Revolution
– Further radicalization
followed the return of
Khomeini on February 1.
– He called for establishing
an Islamic Republic.
– Bakhtiar tried to hold on
to existing constitutional
principles, but was
forced out of office, into
hiding, and into exile
after the army withdrew
support.
The Iranian Revolution
• The army itself was deeply
divided.
• There was no cooperation
between the army and air
force.
• Fearing complete
disintegration, the army
generals ordered their troops
to remain in barracks, but when
civilians and Islamic guerillas
overran the major Tehran army
bases army morale completely
broke down.
• Armed fanatics now controlled
the city streets and power
shifted from the official
government to Khomeini and
his Revolutionary Council.
The Iranian Revolution
• Momentum was with Khomeini.
• On March 30-31, 1979, a
referendum overwhelmingly
accepted establishing an Islamic
Republic.
• A President and representative
assembly would be elected by
universal suffrage, but they had
little power.
• A Council of Guardians,
composed of clerics, would
oversee the passage of all
legislation.
• Final decision making rested in a
faqih – the leading theologian in
the country.
The Iranian Revolution
• Khomeimi eliminated
vestiges of opposition.
• Revolutionary authorities
executed hundreds.
• Revolts in minority areas
(especially Turkomen and
Kurdish) were suppressed.
• Leftists and others
attempted to turn the
situation to their favour, but
were crushed – though
several clerics were
assassinated and others
injured.
Iranian Foreign Policy
• Iranian foreign policy
shifted dramatically.
• Iran became anti-American
and anti-Soviet.
• The regime threw its
support behind Shia
minorities in Afghanistan,
Iraq, the Gulf states and
Lebanon.
• Religion, rather than
political ideology, now
drove policy.
• Fortunately for Iran’s Sunni
neighbours, the revolution
also sapped Iran’s military
potential.
Iran’s Economic Trouble
• The economy crumbled.
– Many middle class Iranians
fled the country, not wishing
to live under a fundamentalist
regime.
– Anti-Khomeini sabotage was
a problem.
– The government took over
many large enterprises,
starting with private banks,
then insurance companies,
and finally all major
companies.
– Foreign investment withdrew,
taking capital and expertise
with them.
The Hostage Crisis
• On November 4, 1979
radical Islamic students
stormed the US embassy in
Iran, holding 55 Americans
prisoner until January,
1981.
• The US responded by
freezing Iranian assets.
• In April, 1980 a US special
forces operation to free the
hostages failed miserably.
• Iran was an international
pariah.
The Iran-Iraq War
• Seeking to take advantage
of Iran’s military decline,
Iraq invaded Kurdistan
and Khuzestan provinces
in September, 1980.
• The Iraqis likely expected
anti-Khomeini forces
would rise up – however
the opposite occurred.
Iranians of all beliefs
united against this foreign
invasion.
Iran Iraq War
• Iraq found itself in a
prolonged conflict against a
country with a much bigger
population.
• Saddam Hussein was armed
by the US.
• Iran secretly received parts
for their US aircraft from
Israel – which found it
useful to have two strong
opponents butchering each
other for nearly a decade
(until 1988).
Iran Under Khomeini
• The war helped solidify
Khomieni and the
Islamic revolution.
• Religious principles
underpinned Iranian
society – politically and
economically.
• The Iranian theocracy
served as a model for
Islami fundamentalists
elsewhere to strive for.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• This remote, mountainous,
backwards country has long
been of strategic
importance.
• In the 19th century it was at
the heart of the “Great
Game” as the Russians and
British both sought to
extend influence into the
country with little success.
• Bordering directly on
Afghanistan, Soviet concern
for the area continued in
the 20th century.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• In 1978 a coup overthrew the
5 year old government of
Sarder Mohammad Daud –
replacing it with a pro-Soviet
regime under Nur Mohammad
Taraki – who renamed the
country the People’s
Democratic Republic of
Afghanistan.
• In September, 1979, Taraki was
killed in another coup by
Hafizullah Amin – and a Soviet
sponsored counter-coup
followed, led by Babrak
Karmal, who called upon the
Soviet Union to supply troops
to help him.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• The attitude of many Afghanis
to the governments after
Daud was hostile – especially
among the orthodox Moslems
who made up most of the
population.
• Moslem fundamentalists were
also encouraged by events in
Iran and Pakistan, where
Islamization was taking place.
• Fighting broke out between
religiously-motivated rebels
and Afghan government
forces.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• The Soviets were concerned
with events in Afghanistan for
two key reasons:
– They feared the rising tide of
Moslem fundamentalism
because of their own large (and
growing) Moslem population
within their own borders. AntiSoviet broadcasts from Shia Iran
were bad enough. A
fundamentalist and mostly
Sunni Afghanistan was more
threatening still.
– No nation feels secure with
chaos and civil war on its border.
The Soviets wanted a stable
neighbour – particularly one
that stood for similar social
values to its own.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• The Soviets did not
expect to station forces
in Afghanistan for a
decade.
• At first the troops sent
came from the Central
Asian republics – but
they proved unreliable.
They were replaced by
European Soviet units.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• Afghan rebels proved
more difficult to deal
with than expected.
• Veterans of tribal wars
and fiercely
independent, the
mujehaddin believed
they were involved in a
jihad – a holy war
against infidel Soviets.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• A third of Afghanistan’s
population eventually lived
in exile, fleeing the bloody
conflict and providing a vast
pool of disaffected people
from which jihadists could
be drawn.
• Soviet forces had difficulty
distinguishing mujehaddin
from ordinary peasants and
many innocents were killed
– breeding new hatred.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• Support for the
Mujehaddin was strong in
the Arab world – which
meant considerable Gulf
money financing their
efforts – and Arab
volunteers to fight for the
cause.
• A war that started with
antique rifles and homemade weapons escalated
rapidly.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• More importantly, the
conflict occurred while the
Cold War was still active.
• The US saw an opportunity
to turn it into a “Soviet
Vietnam.”
• Very sophisticated weapons
were provided to the
mujehaddin – including the
lethal stinger hand-held
anti-aircraft missiles – much
of this aid funnelled
through Pakistan and their
military’s Inter Service
Intelligence (ISI) unit.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• The war was costly to
the Soviets – in lives,
treasure and diplomacy.
• Western countries
boycotted the Moscow
Olympics.
• The world arms markets
were awash in
sophisticated weaponry
that found customers in
Asia, Africa and beyond.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• The human cost of the war
was staggering:
– Almost 15,000 Soviet lives were
lost.
– 54,000 were wounded or
injured.
– 88% of Soviet forces suffered
serious illness.
– 1-2 million Afghanis died.
– In the 1980s half of the world’s
refugees were from Afghanistan.
• In February1988 the Soviets
withdrew, leaving the Afghanis
to conclude the war
themselves.
The Soviets and Afghanistan
• The Soviet-backed government
held on in Kabul until 1992.
• Fighting between Mujehaddin
groups continued as ethnic
divisions split the country.
• Unity was not restored in most of
the country until the Taliban
emerged. Beginning their drive
for power in 1994, they took
Kabul in 1996 – though the
Northern Alliance continued to
rule parts of the country.
• Islamic fundamentalism
underpinned Taliban rule – with
women’s rights (extended with
Soviet help) stripped and music
and entertainment banned.
Sharia law was rigidly enforced.
Afghan Aftermath
• Weapons from the Afghan war
flooded the world – as did
committed jihadists – from
Kosovo to Lebanon to
Chechnya, well armed
fundamentalists were buoyed by
their defeat of a super-power.
• Returning Arab fighters had
much to oppose when they
returned to their authoritarian
governed homelands.
• In 1992 a military coup
prevented the coming to power
of the Moslem Brotherhood in
Algeria.
• Ongoing civil war in Chechnya
cost lives in the affected area,
while terrorism spread to
Moscow itself.
Kuwait and the First Gulf War
• Saddam Hussein faced
economic collapse at the
end of the Iran-Iraq war.
• In 1990 he gambled with an
invasion of oil-rich Kuwait
on questionable historical
grounds.
• Arab neighbours and
Western Countries were
taken aback.
• US President George Bush
put together an alliance to
oppose the move and
ultimately reverse it.
Kuwait and the First Gulf War
• A Western air campaign
quickly destroyed the
Iraqi air force.
• Smart bombs and cruise
missiles disabled Iraqi
command and control
capabilities.
• When the ground
campaign began, in early
August, 1990 – Operation
Desert Storm had rapid
success.
Kuwait and the First Gulf War
• While the war was being fought,
Saddam Hussein sought to break
the coalition by bringing Israel
into the conflict – hopefully
splitting the Arab and Western
allies.
• Scud missiles fired at Tel-Aviv
brought no Israeli response as the
US promised to deliver the new
Patriot anti-missile system to
them, provided they kept out of
the conflict.
• Fears that Hussein might employ
chemical weapons in the Scud
attacks – that were also launched
against Saudi Arabia -- came to
nothing. Iraq understood that
any such escalation might lead to
an Israeli nuclear response.
Gulf War Aftermath
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The speed of Iraq’s collapse caught
many by surprise.
The coalition worked hard to
promote dissent in Iraq prior to the
collapse – resulting in uprisings in the
North by Kurds and by Shia in the
South.
By surrendering quickly and
accepting the loss of Kuwait, Saddam
preserved much of his military force
– which he then turned on the rebels.
The coalition achieved its goals and
now it turned its back on the Kurds
and Shia.
Only a humanitarian disaster caused
reconsideration as hundreds of
thousands of Kurds fled across the
mountains into Turkey – a country
with a “Kurdish problem” of its own.
Gulf War Aftermath
• A safe zone was
established in the North
for the Kurds.
• A no-fly zone in both
North and South forbade
Iraqi aircraft from
attacking.
• Saddam Hussein
continued to rule harshly,
but was restrained
somewhat by threats
from the West.
9-11
• On September 11, 2001
Americans were horrified by the
coordinated attacks upon the
World Trade Center in New York
and the Pentagon in Washington
by Osama bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda
group.
• Americans were shocked by
terrorism at home, but this was
not Al-Qaeda’s first attacks on
America – attacks on a US
warship in Yemen and American
embassy in Kenya preceded it.
• Armed and supported by the US
in the Afghan war – bin Laden
was consistent in his ideology,
opposing American secularism
as he opposed Soviet.
Response to 9-11
• Osama’s goal was to bring an
American backlash against the
Moslem world that would
stimulate anti-Western feeling
and possibly topple proAmerican Arab regimes.
• What would the Americans
do?
• Two schools of thought were
voiced:
– Moderates, like Colin Powell
wanted a measured response.
– Radicals, like Paul Wolfowitz
and Dick Cheney called for a
general attack on terrorists and
the states that sponsored them
– including Iraq.
Response to 9-11
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Al-Qaeda was quickly identified as the
perpetrator.
The US prepared a dramatic response
against the it and the Taliban regime
that allowed it to operate in
Afghanistan.
Working with the Northern Alliance and
with NATO allies, the Americans quickly
took control of the country, forcing
Taliban and Al Qaeda across the border
into Pakistan’s tribal territories.
The war now moved into a low-intensity
conflict that still continues.
The Americans set up an administration
under Hamid Karzai – but real power in
much of the country is in the hands of
local warlords.
A decade of war left nothing resolved
and the conflict seems more and more
to parallel the Soviet experience –
though with lower casualties.
Response to 9-11
• The US administration
sought to use global
sympathy to push a larger
agenda.
• George W. Bush proclaimed
a “War on Terror.” Many
observers noted that this
was an illogical concept –
one can fight a particular
group or country...but a
tactic?
• The declaration was largely
unchallenged in the
aftermath of 9-11, however.
Response to 9-11
• The US passed the Patriot
Act, which drastically
curtailed civil rights –
allowing arrest and
detention without
establishing cause.
• A detention camp was set
up at Guantanamo Bay –
specifically to avoid possible
interference by courts in the
(mis)treatment of prisoners.
• Other countries also passed
similar laws, though none
so far-reaching as the US.
Response to 9-11
• Bush went on to talk of “an
axis of evil” including Iran, Iraq
and North Korea – all
contributors to global
terrorism.
• In June, he enunciated the socalled Bush Doctrine, claiming
for America the right to take
pre-emptive action against its
enemies anywhere in the
world – without international
sanction. The lack of serious
public debate of this
pronouncement was
astonishing – but clearly
limited by public fear in the
aftermath of 9-11.
Response to 9-11
• Within the US government, the hawks
won the day.
• In September, 2002 Iraq announced
that UN weapons inspectors could look
for weapons of mass destruction in the
country – to prevent a Bush-led preemptive strike.
• The US claimed Iraq was continuing
secret chemical and nuclear weapon
production.
• Colin Powell addressed the UN Security
Council, presenting intelligence
supporting the US position.
• What he seems not to have known is
that Vice President Cheney’s office
cited dubious intelligence and ignoring
the CIA information on this file.
Response to 9-11
• Cheney and the US hawks
insisted that Iraq was involved
in the 9-11 attacks. A case was
being made for war.
• On March 21, 2003 US, British
and other troops invaded Iraq,
quickly crushing resistance.
• On May 1 George Bush
announced that “major
combat operations in Iraq
have ended” and that “the
Battle of Iraq is one victory in a
war on terror that began on
September the 11th, 2002, and
still goes on.”
Response to 9-11
• However, the war did not
end. It merely entered a
new phase – a guerrilla
conflict, something the
military terms assymetrical
warfare and the politicians
called an insurrection.
• No WMDs were found.
Revelations of the use of
torture by Americans at Abu
Ghraib prison in Iraq and
Guantanamo Bay simply
turned the “Arab Street”
against the US.
Responces to 9-11
Response to 9-11
• Furthermore, the use of preemptive war, the stripping of civil
rights in the US and in allied
countries, the revelation of special
rendition of prisoners to 3rd states
for torture and the reality of a “war
on terror” that might never end to
justify it all worried many.
• Moslems wondered why the war on
terror seemed to focus only on
Moslems when terrorism was a
global phenomenon.
• Bin Laden failed in trying to create a
crisis that would topple Arab
regimes and help create new
theocracies.
• However, wars killing large numbers
of Moslems, created huge
resentments everywhere in the
Moslem world.
Response to 9-11
• The 9-11 response reinforced the
feelings of some in the West that
we were engaged in what historian
Samuel P. Huntingdon termed a
“clash of civilizations.” He
theorized that radical Islam and
liberal democracy were
antithetical. Another historian,
Paul Johnson argued that Islam
was a religion spread by the sword
and motivated by fundamentalist
beliefs opposed to Western
thinking.
• To policy makers raised under the
Cold War paradigm, this provided a
new and simple world view. Arms
manufacturers identify a new foe
and those who sought restriction
of civil rights, a new justification.
The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath
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In the 1990s American neo-conservatives
argued that America might impose a
democracy in the Middle East that would
become a model for change.
The Invasion of Iraq was thought to
provide this opportunity – but American
imposed Iraqi democracy was messy,
with sectarian disputes causing friction
and no agreement about what
democracy looks like.
In 2010 demonstrations against
authoritarian regimes began in many
Arab countries – this time the call for
democracy was internal – triggered by
the suicide of Mohammed Bouazizi after
authorities impounded his market cart
and beat him and other officials refused
to hear his complaint.
A small demonstration in his hometown
resonated everywhere and popular rage
against authoritarian government in
Tunisia exploded.
The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath
• Attempts to put down the
demonstrations led to
hundreds of deaths and
many injuries.
• In the end, the military
withdrew its support of
the government of Zine
el-Abidine Ben Ali. He
resigned and an interim
government promised
reforms and free
elections.
The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath
• In January 2011, demonstrators
appeared in Tahrir Square, Cairo.
• The Jasmine Revolution spread to Egypt,
the most populous and important Arab
state.
• President Mubarak used security forces
to try to end the demonstrations, but
failed. The army was reluctant to move
against the demonstrators.
• Cosmetic changes to government
similarly did not result in an end to
demonstrations that now extended
throughout the country.
• Mubarak himself resigned and an interim
government promised a referendum on
constitutional change and free elections
to follow.
• The March 20 referendum passed and
significant guarantees were made to the
rights of Egyptians.
The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath
• Demonstrations also
spread to Yemen, Jordan,
Bahrain and Syria – where
governments promised
reforms, but delivered
little (to the time of
writing).
• In Libya it sparked a civil
war, with opponents of
the long-term autocrat
Ghaddafi found success in
the East, but were
repressed in the West.
The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath
• Western governments, taken by
surprise in this “Arab Spring” played
only a peripheral role in most Arab
countries.
• In Libya they took a more active
role.
• A no-fly zone was declared in
Libyan airspace – to prevent the
better armed government forces
from crushing the rebels.
• The rationale was to protect civilian
lives. However, it was also clear
that the Western forces were
supportive of the rebels, though
their mission was not cleared to
effect regime change. Rules of
engagement seem murky and one
wonders what might emerge if this
conflict lasts very long.
The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath
• Where all of this is headed is unsure.
• Regimes that waiver will disappear.
Some that do may be replaced by new
regimes that differ little from the old –
but that play a better public relations
game.
• Other regimes will weather the storm
and be even more repressive to do so.
• Theocracies may result in one or more
countries.
• However, out of this should emerge some
home-grown democracies that better
meet the aspirations of their people.
Westerners should not expect that their
goals are identical to our own though.
• The world is more complicated than our
simple ideological positions tell us. We
cannot expect everyone else’s aspirations
to be like our own.
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